Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production during late January was reported at 2.02mnt, down 3.7% vs. the previous ten days, and 1.5% higher YoY. Local steel inventories fell sharply 20.6% over the period (-26.0% YoY), due to the approaching Chinese New Year holiday. Meanwhile, Beijing’s further efforts to bolster domestic construction activity might support steel products prices in 2024, in addition to the overall declining steel output, we believe
We recap, that Chinese steel production is set to decline 7% vs. 2023 in 2025, per CISA estimates, which could affect ~4% of global steel supply. China represents ~57% of world steel output
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production during late January was reported at 2.02mnt, down 3.7% vs. the previous ten days, and 1.5% higher YoY. Local steel inventories fell sharply 20.6% over the period (-26.0% YoY), due to the approaching Chinese New Year holiday. Meanwhile, Beijing’s further efforts to bolster domestic construction activity might support steel products prices in 2024, in addition to the overall declining steel output, we believe
We recap, that Chinese steel production is set to decline 7% vs. 2023 in 2025, per CISA estimates, which could affect ~4% of global steel supply. China represents ~57% of world steel output
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
📌China’s new internal combustion engine car sales jumped 38% YoY in January from a low base, accelerating from the 12% YoY increase in December. However, the figures remained below their pre-Covid level (-25% vs. January 2019), amid the solid appetite for EVs, which continues to weigh on PGM consumption. To recap, the Chinese auto sector represents some 26% and 17% of the world’s autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China surged 79% YoY in January, after the 47% YoY rise in December. To recap, CAAM expects the local EV penetration rate to hit 40% in 2024 (vs. ~30% in January). Overall, the continuous growth in EV sales might further drive up the consumption of the battery metals basket (e.g. cobalt, lithium and nickel), as China has represented ~50% of global EV demand in recent months
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
📌China’s new internal combustion engine car sales jumped 38% YoY in January from a low base, accelerating from the 12% YoY increase in December. However, the figures remained below their pre-Covid level (-25% vs. January 2019), amid the solid appetite for EVs, which continues to weigh on PGM consumption. To recap, the Chinese auto sector represents some 26% and 17% of the world’s autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively
📌New EV sales in China surged 79% YoY in January, after the 47% YoY rise in December. To recap, CAAM expects the local EV penetration rate to hit 40% in 2024 (vs. ~30% in January). Overall, the continuous growth in EV sales might further drive up the consumption of the battery metals basket (e.g. cobalt, lithium and nickel), as China has represented ~50% of global EV demand in recent months
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 3)
📉Gold-backed ETFs sold net 51t of gold in January, sharply accelerating from the revised -9t in December, the World Gold Council reports. This marked the 8th consecutive month of declines in holdings. Specifically, American and European funds have sold 36t and 18t respectively, with only minor positive inflow of 3t seen in Asia. Overall, since June 2023, global ETFs gold reserves shrank 301t (~10% of physical gold demand in 2023 in annualised terms): we reiterate our view that ETF sales remain one of the key factors pressuring gold prices. However, gold miners’ rising cash costs, strong demand from global central banks and a potentially lower US Fed funds rate in 2024 is likely up bolster the precious metal’s performance this year, we believe
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
📉Gold-backed ETFs sold net 51t of gold in January, sharply accelerating from the revised -9t in December, the World Gold Council reports. This marked the 8th consecutive month of declines in holdings. Specifically, American and European funds have sold 36t and 18t respectively, with only minor positive inflow of 3t seen in Asia. Overall, since June 2023, global ETFs gold reserves shrank 301t (~10% of physical gold demand in 2023 in annualised terms): we reiterate our view that ETF sales remain one of the key factors pressuring gold prices. However, gold miners’ rising cash costs, strong demand from global central banks and a potentially lower US Fed funds rate in 2024 is likely up bolster the precious metal’s performance this year, we believe
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
ArcelorMittal 4Q23 results - EBITDA meets estimates
✏️ArcelorMittal's 4Q23 revenues were 7% below market estimates and 8% weaker than we had expected, amid lower shipments and realised prices. Cost pressures, however, were less than we had expected, which resulted in EBITDA meeting our forecasts (+3% vs. the consensus and -1% vs. us)
💰During 2023, the company repurchased 45.4mn shares, including 26.3mn from the current 85mn share buyback programme, announced in May. The annualised buyback yield in 2023 was ~5.5%
📈The company's BoD proposed to increase the annual base dividend from $0.44/sh to $0.50/sh (1.8% yield, to be paid in two equal installments)
🏭 In 2024, Arcelor expects global ex-China apparent steel demand to grow 3-4% YoY. Specifically, Indian demand is likely to further gain 6-9% YoY
❗️Overall, at spot, we expect Arcelor’s 1Q24F EBITDA to show solid QoQ improvement amid higher US steel prices (domestic HRC has grown >20% vs. the 4Q23 avg.)
#MT #steel
https://metals-wire.com/company/MT_US
✏️ArcelorMittal's 4Q23 revenues were 7% below market estimates and 8% weaker than we had expected, amid lower shipments and realised prices. Cost pressures, however, were less than we had expected, which resulted in EBITDA meeting our forecasts (+3% vs. the consensus and -1% vs. us)
💰During 2023, the company repurchased 45.4mn shares, including 26.3mn from the current 85mn share buyback programme, announced in May. The annualised buyback yield in 2023 was ~5.5%
📈The company's BoD proposed to increase the annual base dividend from $0.44/sh to $0.50/sh (1.8% yield, to be paid in two equal installments)
🏭 In 2024, Arcelor expects global ex-China apparent steel demand to grow 3-4% YoY. Specifically, Indian demand is likely to further gain 6-9% YoY
❗️Overall, at spot, we expect Arcelor’s 1Q24F EBITDA to show solid QoQ improvement amid higher US steel prices (domestic HRC has grown >20% vs. the 4Q23 avg.)
#MT #steel
https://metals-wire.com/company/MT_US
🔥3
Peabody Energy 4Q23 results - overall neutral
🪨Peabody's quarterly revenues were roughly in-line with both the consensus and us. However, adjusted EBITDA was slightly below our estimates (-1% vs. the consensus, and -5% vs. us), amid higher cost pressure in the Seaborne Thermal and Midwestern U.S. segments than we had anticipated
❗️The miner sold 126mnst of coal in 2023, which was slightly below its guidance (133-142mnst). Regarding the 2024 performance, Peabody expects to sell 132-144mnst of coal
💰The BoD has declared a quarterly cash dividend of USD 0.075/share, corresponding to policy, and implying a DY of ~0.3%
📊At spot, we expect the company’s 1Q24F EBITDA to drop in double-digits QoQ, following lower QoQ guided coal sales volume across all segments, as well as subdued thermal coal prices (at spot -15% vs. the 4Q23 av.)
#BTU #coal
https://metals-wire.com/company/BTU_US/
🪨Peabody's quarterly revenues were roughly in-line with both the consensus and us. However, adjusted EBITDA was slightly below our estimates (-1% vs. the consensus, and -5% vs. us), amid higher cost pressure in the Seaborne Thermal and Midwestern U.S. segments than we had anticipated
❗️The miner sold 126mnst of coal in 2023, which was slightly below its guidance (133-142mnst). Regarding the 2024 performance, Peabody expects to sell 132-144mnst of coal
💰The BoD has declared a quarterly cash dividend of USD 0.075/share, corresponding to policy, and implying a DY of ~0.3%
📊At spot, we expect the company’s 1Q24F EBITDA to drop in double-digits QoQ, following lower QoQ guided coal sales volume across all segments, as well as subdued thermal coal prices (at spot -15% vs. the 4Q23 av.)
#BTU #coal
https://metals-wire.com/company/BTU_US/
Morning Bites
⛏ The South African PGM mining industry might face up to 7,000 job cuts, Reuters reports, citing the country's Minerals Council, with cost saving initiatives to affect 4,000-7,000 employees (up to 4.1% of the local PGM workforce in 2022). To recap, South African PGM miners (e.g. Sibanye and Impala) have recently announced job cuts, as demand (mainly from the automotive sector) has been weak while supply has remained generally stable over the same period, and Pd and Pt prices consequently declined 40% YoY and 15% YoY, respectively, in 2023
However, the Mineral Council’s estimate seems too upbeat to us, as Impala on its own is to lay off >4,000 workers. Further decline in SA PGM production (~70% of global Pt and 38% of Pd supply) would add support to the subdued metals prices, we believe
#PGM
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
⛏ The South African PGM mining industry might face up to 7,000 job cuts, Reuters reports, citing the country's Minerals Council, with cost saving initiatives to affect 4,000-7,000 employees (up to 4.1% of the local PGM workforce in 2022). To recap, South African PGM miners (e.g. Sibanye and Impala) have recently announced job cuts, as demand (mainly from the automotive sector) has been weak while supply has remained generally stable over the same period, and Pd and Pt prices consequently declined 40% YoY and 15% YoY, respectively, in 2023
However, the Mineral Council’s estimate seems too upbeat to us, as Impala on its own is to lay off >4,000 workers. Further decline in SA PGM production (~70% of global Pt and 38% of Pd supply) would add support to the subdued metals prices, we believe
#PGM
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Week ahead data releases in M&M
With the reporting season ongoing, several M&M companies are due to report their earnings this week. Regarding the performances of the major gold miners (Kinross, Barrick and Agnico), we are more upbeat than the consensus estimates on their EBITDA
Meanwhile, we also await South African mining statistics, which is scheduled for Tuesday
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
With the reporting season ongoing, several M&M companies are due to report their earnings this week. Regarding the performances of the major gold miners (Kinross, Barrick and Agnico), we are more upbeat than the consensus estimates on their EBITDA
Meanwhile, we also await South African mining statistics, which is scheduled for Tuesday
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏦China’s aggregate financing grew 9% YoY in January to CNY 6.50tn, marking a new record and coming 17% above the consensus estimate of CNY 5.55tn. Meanwhile, traditional bank loans remained broadly flat YoY (vs. -16% YoY in December), but were also 9% ahead of the consensus forecast. According to Trading Economics, the higher liquidity injections (which might intensify in the coming months) reflect Chinese authorities' actions to support the economy and the depressed property sector
China accounts for 52% of global steel demand, as well as 55% and 58% of world copper and aluminium consumption, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🏦China’s aggregate financing grew 9% YoY in January to CNY 6.50tn, marking a new record and coming 17% above the consensus estimate of CNY 5.55tn. Meanwhile, traditional bank loans remained broadly flat YoY (vs. -16% YoY in December), but were also 9% ahead of the consensus forecast. According to Trading Economics, the higher liquidity injections (which might intensify in the coming months) reflect Chinese authorities' actions to support the economy and the depressed property sector
China accounts for 52% of global steel demand, as well as 55% and 58% of world copper and aluminium consumption, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗EU apparent steel demand is set to grow 5.6% YoY to 137mnt in 2024 (although that would still be -13% vs. the 2021 level), according to EUROFER estimates. Meanwhile, in 2025, the figure is seen increasing another 2.9% YoY to 140mnt (-10% vs. 2021). However, in 3Q23, the region’s apparent steel consumption fell for the seventh consecutive quarter (-3.9% YoY), while EUROFER expects the 2023 demand overall to have dropped 6.3% YoY (and be -17% vs. the 2021 level)
In our view, the EUROFER estimates might be rather upbeat, as local manufacturing activity remains depressed (as indicated by the PMI below 50.0), while EU steel production dropped 7.4% YoY in 2023. Hence, the negative momentum is likely to continue at least in 1H24, as the macro environment remains tight amid high ECB interest rates and overall economic challenges in Europe, we believe
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗EU apparent steel demand is set to grow 5.6% YoY to 137mnt in 2024 (although that would still be -13% vs. the 2021 level), according to EUROFER estimates. Meanwhile, in 2025, the figure is seen increasing another 2.9% YoY to 140mnt (-10% vs. 2021). However, in 3Q23, the region’s apparent steel consumption fell for the seventh consecutive quarter (-3.9% YoY), while EUROFER expects the 2023 demand overall to have dropped 6.3% YoY (and be -17% vs. the 2021 level)
In our view, the EUROFER estimates might be rather upbeat, as local manufacturing activity remains depressed (as indicated by the PMI below 50.0), while EU steel production dropped 7.4% YoY in 2023. Hence, the negative momentum is likely to continue at least in 1H24, as the macro environment remains tight amid high ECB interest rates and overall economic challenges in Europe, we believe
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
❤1
Morning Bites (part 1)
⛏ China and Indonesia are to cut at least 100kt of their nickel output in 2024 (~3% of 2023E supply), amid the price slump, Reuters reports. So far, 230kt (~7% of 2023E supply) overall has been cut, but that has had no effect: spot nickel prices have plunged 45% from early 2023 levels. According to market participants, additional cuts of >250kt might be needed in order to balance the nickel market in 2024
To recap, several Ni mines have recently halted operations amid the unfavourable market environment, while Reuters sources note that some Indonesian NPI producers (~48% of global Ni supply) are already loss-making at current prices
#Nickel
https://metals-wire.com/Nickel
⛏ China and Indonesia are to cut at least 100kt of their nickel output in 2024 (~3% of 2023E supply), amid the price slump, Reuters reports. So far, 230kt (~7% of 2023E supply) overall has been cut, but that has had no effect: spot nickel prices have plunged 45% from early 2023 levels. According to market participants, additional cuts of >250kt might be needed in order to balance the nickel market in 2024
To recap, several Ni mines have recently halted operations amid the unfavourable market environment, while Reuters sources note that some Indonesian NPI producers (~48% of global Ni supply) are already loss-making at current prices
#Nickel
https://metals-wire.com/Nickel
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎 India – Jewellery segment revenues at Titan were up 22% YoY in CY 4Q23, following the 39% YoY growth in CY 3Q23. According to the retailer, the festive season saw solid double-digit growth in the number of customers. In our view, Titan’s record high jewellery sales indicate positive consumer sentiment in the local demand for gold and diamonds. At the same time, the diamond sector globally remains stressed, indicating the still elevated levels of the industry’s inventories
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎 India – Jewellery segment revenues at Titan were up 22% YoY in CY 4Q23, following the 39% YoY growth in CY 3Q23. According to the retailer, the festive season saw solid double-digit growth in the number of customers. In our view, Titan’s record high jewellery sales indicate positive consumer sentiment in the local demand for gold and diamonds. At the same time, the diamond sector globally remains stressed, indicating the still elevated levels of the industry’s inventories
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output rose 9% YoY in December, decelerating from the +15% YoY in November. Meanwhile, local gold production was down 3% YoY. Despite the somewhat positive PGM production dynamics in late 2023, major SA PGM miners (e.g. Sibanye and Impala) have recently announced job cuts, with demand (mainly from the automotive sector) being weak, while supply has remained generally stable, which triggered drops in Pd and Pt prices (-40% YoY and -15% YoY, respectively, in 2023). Hence, we might see a potentially greater supply response in 2024
We also remind readers that SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output rose 9% YoY in December, decelerating from the +15% YoY in November. Meanwhile, local gold production was down 3% YoY. Despite the somewhat positive PGM production dynamics in late 2023, major SA PGM miners (e.g. Sibanye and Impala) have recently announced job cuts, with demand (mainly from the automotive sector) being weak, while supply has remained generally stable, which triggered drops in Pd and Pt prices (-40% YoY and -15% YoY, respectively, in 2023). Hence, we might see a potentially greater supply response in 2024
We also remind readers that SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of world gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎 India’s rough diamond net imports jumped 43% YoY in January, partly due to the low base effect (the figure was -10% vs. Jan-21), and reversing from the -14% YoY in December. Meanwhile, India’s polished diamond net exports were down 26% YoY (vs. the -48% YoY in December). Synthetic rough diamond net imports rose 3% YoY, after +17% YoY in December. The share of lab-grown net rough imports in total trading stood at 12% in January. Although India’s diamond demand showed notable improvement in January 2024, as the country resumed rough stone imports after 2 months of suspension (15 October - 15 December 2023), the global diamond market might remain stressed for the next 3-9 months amid still elevated industry’s inventories, we believe
We also recap that India accounts for ~95% of world polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎 India’s rough diamond net imports jumped 43% YoY in January, partly due to the low base effect (the figure was -10% vs. Jan-21), and reversing from the -14% YoY in December. Meanwhile, India’s polished diamond net exports were down 26% YoY (vs. the -48% YoY in December). Synthetic rough diamond net imports rose 3% YoY, after +17% YoY in December. The share of lab-grown net rough imports in total trading stood at 12% in January. Although India’s diamond demand showed notable improvement in January 2024, as the country resumed rough stone imports after 2 months of suspension (15 October - 15 December 2023), the global diamond market might remain stressed for the next 3-9 months amid still elevated industry’s inventories, we believe
We also recap that India accounts for ~95% of world polished stone supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Barrick 4Q23 results - EBITDA beats consensus
📝Barrick's 4Q23 revenues were in line with both the consensus and our estimates. Meanwhile, adjusted EBITDA came in moderately ahead of market forecasts (+7%), but was broadly in-line with us (-3%)
📈In 4Q23, the company's AISC rose 9% QoQ (+10% YoY) to USD 1,364/oz, while the 2023 AISC stood at USD 1,335/oz (+9% YoY). Meanwhile, in 2024 the gold miner sees AISC roughly stable at USD 1,320-1,420/oz
⛏ Barrick has also provided production guidance for 2024: gold output is expected at 3.9-4.3mnoz (up to +6% YoY)
💰The BoD has declared a quarterly dividend of USD 0.10/sh., implying a yield of some 0.7% — in line with the dividend policy. The gold miner has also announced a new buyback programme of USD 1bn (offering a ~4% yield in the next 12 months)
📌At spot, we expect Barrick's 1Q24F EBITDA to be only marginally higher QoQ, given rather stable production guidance for 2024
#GOLD #gold
https://metals-wire.com/company/GOLD_US/
📝Barrick's 4Q23 revenues were in line with both the consensus and our estimates. Meanwhile, adjusted EBITDA came in moderately ahead of market forecasts (+7%), but was broadly in-line with us (-3%)
📈In 4Q23, the company's AISC rose 9% QoQ (+10% YoY) to USD 1,364/oz, while the 2023 AISC stood at USD 1,335/oz (+9% YoY). Meanwhile, in 2024 the gold miner sees AISC roughly stable at USD 1,320-1,420/oz
⛏ Barrick has also provided production guidance for 2024: gold output is expected at 3.9-4.3mnoz (up to +6% YoY)
💰The BoD has declared a quarterly dividend of USD 0.10/sh., implying a yield of some 0.7% — in line with the dividend policy. The gold miner has also announced a new buyback programme of USD 1bn (offering a ~4% yield in the next 12 months)
📌At spot, we expect Barrick's 1Q24F EBITDA to be only marginally higher QoQ, given rather stable production guidance for 2024
#GOLD #gold
https://metals-wire.com/company/GOLD_US/
Morning Bites
🇵🇪Peru’s copper output increased 9% YoY in December, following the +11% YoY in November, according to INEI data. Overall, in 2023, local copper production showed a 13% YoY gain to 2.76mnt, which was slightly below the Peruvian government's ambitious plan to boost domestic Cu output 15% YoY last year. Meanwhile, the joint production of Chile and Peru (~38% of global Cu supply) rose 3% YoY in both December and 2023 as a whole
To recap, Peru standalone accounts for ~11% of global Cu supply
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🇵🇪Peru’s copper output increased 9% YoY in December, following the +11% YoY in November, according to INEI data. Overall, in 2023, local copper production showed a 13% YoY gain to 2.76mnt, which was slightly below the Peruvian government's ambitious plan to boost domestic Cu output 15% YoY last year. Meanwhile, the joint production of Chile and Peru (~38% of global Cu supply) rose 3% YoY in both December and 2023 as a whole
To recap, Peru standalone accounts for ~11% of global Cu supply
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
South32 2H23 results - negative surprise
📝South32 revenues in CY 2H23 were materially below consensus and our forecasts (-14% vs. consensus, and -12% vs. us), mostly due to deeper discounts at Brazil Aluminium and Illawara than anticipated. Consequently, EBITDA was also a big miss (-25% vs. the consensus, and -26% vs. us)
⛏The miner's FY24 production guidance has generally remained unchanged: in fiscal 2H24 (CY 1H24), aluminium output is to inch down 2% HoH, while coal production is to recover >40% HoH (amid completed longwall moves at Illawarra)
💰The BoD has resolved to pay a fully-franked interim dividend of USD 0.004/sh for CY 1H24, which implies a modest ~0.2% yield
📌At spot, we expect South32's CY 1H24F EBITDA to show high double-digit growth HoH amid the guided coal production recovery
#S32 #aluminium #coal
https://metals-wire.com/company/S32_AU/
📝South32 revenues in CY 2H23 were materially below consensus and our forecasts (-14% vs. consensus, and -12% vs. us), mostly due to deeper discounts at Brazil Aluminium and Illawara than anticipated. Consequently, EBITDA was also a big miss (-25% vs. the consensus, and -26% vs. us)
⛏The miner's FY24 production guidance has generally remained unchanged: in fiscal 2H24 (CY 1H24), aluminium output is to inch down 2% HoH, while coal production is to recover >40% HoH (amid completed longwall moves at Illawarra)
💰The BoD has resolved to pay a fully-franked interim dividend of USD 0.004/sh for CY 1H24, which implies a modest ~0.2% yield
📌At spot, we expect South32's CY 1H24F EBITDA to show high double-digit growth HoH amid the guided coal production recovery
#S32 #aluminium #coal
https://metals-wire.com/company/S32_AU/
Kinross 4Q23 results - EBITDA beats expectations again
📝 Kinross’s 4Q23 revenues came in above market estimates (+7% vs. the consensus and +5% vs. us), on sales being 5% higher than we had anticipated. Meanwhile, the cost pressures were slightly softer, which also bolstered EBITDA (+15% vs. consensus, and +8% vs. us)
💵 In 4Q23, the gold miner’s AISC grew 4% QoQ (+9% YoY) to USD 1,353/oz. Overall, in 2023, AISC rose 4% YoY to 1,316/oz, while Kinross expects AISC of USD 1,360/oz (+3% YoY) in 2024
⛏The company has also announced its FY24 production outlook of 2.1mnoz of gold equivalent (-2% YoY)
💰The BoD has declared a regular quarterly dividend of USD 0.03/share, which implies a 0.6% DY
❗️At spot, we expect Kinross's 1Q24F adj. EBITDA to be broadly stable QoQ, given potentially flat gold sales volumes
#K_CN #gold
https://metals-wire.com/company/K_CN
📝 Kinross’s 4Q23 revenues came in above market estimates (+7% vs. the consensus and +5% vs. us), on sales being 5% higher than we had anticipated. Meanwhile, the cost pressures were slightly softer, which also bolstered EBITDA (+15% vs. consensus, and +8% vs. us)
💵 In 4Q23, the gold miner’s AISC grew 4% QoQ (+9% YoY) to USD 1,353/oz. Overall, in 2023, AISC rose 4% YoY to 1,316/oz, while Kinross expects AISC of USD 1,360/oz (+3% YoY) in 2024
⛏The company has also announced its FY24 production outlook of 2.1mnoz of gold equivalent (-2% YoY)
💰The BoD has declared a regular quarterly dividend of USD 0.03/share, which implies a 0.6% DY
❗️At spot, we expect Kinross's 1Q24F adj. EBITDA to be broadly stable QoQ, given potentially flat gold sales volumes
#K_CN #gold
https://metals-wire.com/company/K_CN
Morning Bites
🔗 EU construction sector output is set to fall 0.4% YoY in 2024, after the -2.1% YoY in 2023, according to a EUROFER report. The European construction sector entered a period of recession in late-2022 and saw its fifth consecutive quarterly drop in 3Q23 (-3.4% YoY after the -1.2% YoY in 2Q23). Hence, we maintain our view that the negative dynamics seen by EU apparent steel demand are likely to continue at least in 1H24, due to local economic challenges and the persistently high ECB interest rate
Of note, the construction sector accounts for ~35% of steel consumption in the EU
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗 EU construction sector output is set to fall 0.4% YoY in 2024, after the -2.1% YoY in 2023, according to a EUROFER report. The European construction sector entered a period of recession in late-2022 and saw its fifth consecutive quarterly drop in 3Q23 (-3.4% YoY after the -1.2% YoY in 2Q23). Hence, we maintain our view that the negative dynamics seen by EU apparent steel demand are likely to continue at least in 1H24, due to local economic challenges and the persistently high ECB interest rate
Of note, the construction sector accounts for ~35% of steel consumption in the EU
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Agnico Eagle 4Q23 results - meet expectations
📝Agnico Eagle's 4Q23 revenues were slightly ahead of the consensus (+3%) and us (+5%), amid higher sales volumes. Meanwhile, adj. EBITDA roughly met market expectations (+2% vs. the consensus and -1% vs. us), as cost pressures were slightly softer than we had anticipated
📈The gold miner's 4Q23 AISC grew ~1% QoQ (flat YoY) to USD 1,227/oz; the figure for FY23 was at USD 1,179/oz. Regarding the 2024 level, the miner expects AISC of USD 1,200-1,250/oz (up 2-6% YoY)
⛏Agnico also provided its production outlook for 2024: payable gold output is expected at 3.35-3.55mnoz (flat YoY)
💰The BoD declared a 4Q cash dividend of USD 0.40/share, which implies a quarterly yield of some 0.9%
📌At spot, we expect Agnico Eagle's 1Q24F EBITDA to be rather flat QoQ, amid potentially stable gold sales volumes
#AEM #gold
https://metals-wire.com/company/AEM_US/
📝Agnico Eagle's 4Q23 revenues were slightly ahead of the consensus (+3%) and us (+5%), amid higher sales volumes. Meanwhile, adj. EBITDA roughly met market expectations (+2% vs. the consensus and -1% vs. us), as cost pressures were slightly softer than we had anticipated
📈The gold miner's 4Q23 AISC grew ~1% QoQ (flat YoY) to USD 1,227/oz; the figure for FY23 was at USD 1,179/oz. Regarding the 2024 level, the miner expects AISC of USD 1,200-1,250/oz (up 2-6% YoY)
⛏Agnico also provided its production outlook for 2024: payable gold output is expected at 3.35-3.55mnoz (flat YoY)
💰The BoD declared a 4Q cash dividend of USD 0.40/share, which implies a quarterly yield of some 0.9%
📌At spot, we expect Agnico Eagle's 1Q24F EBITDA to be rather flat QoQ, amid potentially stable gold sales volumes
#AEM #gold
https://metals-wire.com/company/AEM_US/