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Global Metals&Mining Research from Glush&Team. No investment advice, just numbers & charts!
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Morning Bites

🥉Global copper production inched up 0.8% YoY in 11mo23 to 20.1mnt, the International Copper Study Group reports, while November output rose 1.1% YoY (vs. +0.8% YoY in October). Despite some significant production growth in Peru and D.R. Congo, the global dynamics have been limited by operational issues in Chile, China, Indonesia, Panama and the US. In addition, Cobre Panama, a major copper mine (~2% of global Cu supply) suspended operations in late November amid continuous social unrest, with the company anticipating the mine's closure by mid-2024. In our view, this might add some stress to the global copper supply in 2024

#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Freeport McMoran 4Q23 results — meet expectations
    
✏️Freeport's 4Q23 revenues broadly met consensus and our estimates. Adjusted EBITDA was also roughly as expected (+3% vs. the consensus, and -1% vs. us)

Regarding the outlook for 2024, the miner anticipates copper sales to remain flat YoY, while gold sales are to grow >15% YoY. The company guides for 2024 net unit cash costs to stay unchanged vs. the 2023 average of USD 1.60/lb

📈 Freeport said that the short-term market fundamentals improved in late-2023 as supply growth estimates declined, in addition to the general backdrop of low copper inventories and persistently strong demand for renewables globally

❗️At spot, we expect Freeport’s 1Q24F EBITDA to stay roughly unchanged QoQ, as metal prices remain close to 4Q23 levels, along with the guided flat copper sales volumes

#FCX #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/FCX_US
Morning Bites (part 1)

🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production during mid-January was reported at 2.09mnt, up 3.7% from the previous ten days, and +8.1% YoY. Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 6.7% over the period (-4.5% YoY). In our view, Beijing's efforts to support the local economy via the real estate sector could bolster domestic construction activity in 2024 and, hence, steel products prices

We also note that CISA expects local steel production to decrease to 950mnt in 2025 (-7% vs. 2023), which might also add support to global prices, if it materialises, given that China represents ~57% of world steel supply

#steel 
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)

💎Mountain Province’s revenues dropped 18% YoY in 2023, according to a company trading update. Last year, the miner produced 5.6mnct (~5% of global supply), at the low end of its guidance (5.6-6.1mnct). However, it sold 2.7mnct in 2023 (the same as in 2022) at an avg. realised price of USD 90/ct, down from USD 112/ct the year before. In particular, 4Q23 sales were down 17% YoY to USD 58.9mn: sales volumes increased 21% YoY to 0.92mnct, but the average price fell 32% YoY to USD 64/ct. To recap, on our numbers, junior miners have been loss-making at spot since mid-2023

At the same time, a further improvement in sentiment in the key US and China downstream markets (~53% and 12% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade, respectively) might trigger a recovery in the stressed diamond sector, we believe. We note that buyers have appeared more positive at some minor auctions in early-2024, showing strong bidding

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 3)

☢️ Canadian uranium mine McClean Lake is set to restart production in 2025, according to an official press release. Operations at the site were suspended in 2008, following a decline in uranium prices. The mine’s targeted output in 2025 is ~310ktU (~0.5% of the global 2022 mined supply) with ~1,150ktU (~2% of 2022 supply) potential additional production from the McClean North and Caribou deposits expected in 2026-2030. At the end of 2023, spot uranium prices hit 15 year highs, amid supply issues and growing state interest in nuclear energy. Although the current price level makes the development of inefficient projects feasible, we do not expect it to be persistent, as new capacities are likely to emerge in the near future

#uranium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Uranium
Morning Bites (part 1)

🏆China’s gold production was up 2% YoY in 4Q23, reversing from the -3% YoY in 3Q23, according to data from the China Gold Association. Meanwhile, the country's gold consumption grew 14% YoY in 4Q23 vs. the -7% YoY seen in 3Q23, (and was also 9% above the pre-COVID level). Specifically, gold jewellery demand increased 17% YoY, after the 9% YoY drop in 3Q23. Although Chinese gold output (~9% of the metal's supply worldwide) is showing some recovery, we keep our bullish view on gold, as demand from global CBs remains solid, in addition to miners' rising cash costs and the potentially lower key rates in the world's top economies (e.g. the EU and US) in 2024

#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 2)

🔗Global crude steel output declined 5% YoY to 136mnt in December, after the 3% YoY growth in November, the World Steel Association reports. Meanwhile, China’s production (~50% of global crude steel supply in December vs. traditionally ~57%) has dropped 15% YoY, after the flat dynamics seen in November, in order to meet the supply cap. At the same time, ex-China steel output rose 7% YoY. Specifically, EU supply was up 3% YoY (also +3% YoY in November), most likely due to the low base effect (the output fell 11% YoY in December 2022). On the other hand, Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) surged 10% YoY in December (+12% YoY in 2023). US steel production gained 8% YoY (flat YoY in 2023), while Russia’s output grew 4% YoY (+6% in 2023)

#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 3) 
 
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery gained 3% YoY in 4Q23, in line with the +3% YoY in 3Q23, the company reports. Meanwhile, the segment's organic sales were up 7% YoY in 2023, amid store chain expansions and the release of new collections. Although LVMH has noted that the geopolitical and macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, it is still confident in its 2024 performance. Overall, even the stable YoY dynamics of retailers’ sales seen in 4Q23 is likely to be positive for sentiment on the stressed diamond sector, we believe. At the same time, further sales growth in the key US and China downstream markets (~53% and 12% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade, respectively) might trigger a recovery in the diamond sector in 2024

#diamonds 
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Week ahead data releases in M&M

This week, Cleveland-Cliffs and Southern Copper are to report their 4Q23 earnings: our EBITDA forecasts for both names are in the low-single digits above the consensus estimates. Meanwhile, we also await De Beers's sales results at its 1st Cycle in 2024. Rapaport sources expect rather limited demand at the sight, with sales of USD ~300mn (50% less than the historical average)

#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
Morning Bites

🏗China’s preliminary excavator sales numbers for January showed a 7% YoY increase (domestic + export), vs. the 1% YoY decline in December, per CME estimates. The positive dynamics, however, were mostly due to the low base effect (the figure was 43% below the January 2021 level). Meanwhile, domestic excavator sales are to grow 66% YoY from the low base (still -64% vs. January 2021). Hence, continuously weak domestic sales suggest ongoing stagnation in the Chinese real estate sector. At the same time, the new economic support measures recently announced by Beijing might bolster domestic construction activity and thus lift demand for industrial metals in 2024, we believe

We also remind readers that China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, and for 55% and 58% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively

#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites

📈China’s output of aluminium products rose 6% YoY to 5.9mnt in December, accelerating from the +3% YoY in November. Despite persistently strong demand for aluminium in China (~58% of world primary Al consumption in 2022), domestic and global supply are also growing (+3% and +2% YoY, respectively, in 2023), which limits the potential upside in the metal’s prices. Furthermore, on our numbers, ~50% of global non-integrated Al suppliers are breakeven or loss-making at spot

🥉Chinese output of copper products dropped 10% YoY in December, to 2.0mnt, accelerating from the -4% YoY in November. China remains the world's major copper consumer, representing ~55% of global Cu demand. Hence, if the negative dynamics were to persist, it might add some stress to copper prices

#aluminium #copper
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites

💎De Beers has reported sales of USD 370mn at its 1st cycle in 2024, ~40% below the historical average and 19% weaker YoY (vs. -67% YoY at the 10th cycle in 2023). This was roughly in line with the Rapaport estimates. According to De Beers CEO Al Cook, solid consumer demand in the US over the winter holiday season helped to stabilise the diamond industry, as did the resumption of India's rough diamond imports in late-2023. However, Cook noted that it might take some time for rough diamond demand to recover fully

Despite De Beers' ~10% rough diamond price cut in early-2024, the still weak realised volumes indicate that the elevated levels of the industry’s inventories have not been unwound yet. Therefore, the news is moderately negative for sentiment over the diamond market, in our view

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)

🏆Global physical gold demand dropped 12% YoY to 1,245t in 4Q23, in line with the -13% YoY in 3Q23, according to the World Gold Council (WGC) data. The figure was also down 2% YoY in 2023. Specifically, central bank purchases in 4Q23 plunged 40% YoY, mostly due to the high base effect (we note that in 2023, they were only -5% YoY). The demand for gold jewellery was reported roughly flat again (-1% YoY in 3Q23 and 4Q23). Meanwhile, total global gold demand was down 11% YoY in 4Q23 (-5% YoY in 2023), accelerating from the revised -6% YoY in 3Q23. At the same time, world mined gold production inched down 2% YoY in 4Q23 (being broadly flat YoY in 2023).

Overall, given the persistently strong demand from CBs and the rising cash costs of global gold miners, we keep our positive view on the precious metal's performance. In addition, a potentially lower US Fed funds rate in 2024 would be a favourable factor for the sentiment on gold, we believe

#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 2)

📉Russia’s gold output dropped 7.3% YoY in December, after the flat dynamics seen in November, according to Rosstat data. Russia’s gold output also declined 2.5% YoY in 2023. Overall, we remain bullish on gold, amid strong demand from global central banks, high cost support level and potentially lower key rates in the world's top economies (e.g. the EU and US) in 2024. To recap, Russia accounts for ~9% of the world's mined gold output

#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 1)
 
🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed some improvement in January. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was reported at 46.6, the highest in ten months and in line with the preliminary estimates. The US ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly jumped to 49.1 (from 47.4 in December), the highest since October 2022
 
🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China rose to 49.2 in January (from 49.0 in December), meeting the consensus estimates. At the same time, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI remained at 50.8 in January, ahead of the 50.6 estimates
 
❗️Although some of the global PMIs showed a moderate recovery in January, they mostly remained below 50.0 (an unfavourable factor for the manufacturing sector). However, we believe that new economic stimulus for the Chinese economy might bolster its demand for industrial metals (e.g. steel, copper and aluminium) later in 2024
 
#PMIs  
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)

☢️ Kazatomprom has published its trading update for 4Q23 and provided guidance for 2024. Last year, production was roughly flat YoY (on a 100% basis) and in line with the previous guidance. The group’s sales rose 10% YoY in 2023 (and came 16% above the guidance) thanks to the extraordinary realised volumes in 4Q23 (+94% YoY). The miner also noted the robust contracting activity, of an average 79% of total U trading in 2023 (vs. 69% in 2022), together with the 31% YoY higher avg. long-term contract prices at the end of 2023. To recap, in early-2024, spot U3O8 prices hit 15-year highs, amid supply issues and the growing state interest in nuclear energy

Although we might see some disruptions on the supply side in 2024-25, high spot U308 prices are likely to trigger the reopening of inefficient mines. Hence, the current price level is unlikely to be sustainable in the long term, we believe

#uranium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Uranium
Week ahead data releases in M&M

As reporting season continues, Arcelor Mittal and Peabody Energy are to report their 4Q23 earnings this week. Our EBITDA forecasts for both names are in the low-single digits above the consensus. Meanwhile, China is scheduled report its monthly liquidity injections data by the end of the week

#reporting_season 
https://metals-wire.com/events
Morning Bites (part 1)

🇨🇱Chile’s December copper production was flat YoY, after the 2% YoY decline in November, remaining close to historical lows, per INE data. Meanwhile, in 2023, the country’s output also fell 2% YoY. We remind readers that Chile's mining industry (~27% of world copper output) has been affected by a persistent drought and unfavourable structural issues such as grade depletion. Hence, in our view, if the adverse factors in Chile’s mining sector persist, they might add pressure to global copper production, together with halted operations at Cobre Panama mine (~2% of world's copper supply)

#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 2)

🚘US light vehicle sales rose 3% YoY in January, decelerating from the 13% YoY growth in December. However, the figure was still 7% short of the pre-Covid 2019 level. Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted sales volumes declined 4% YoY last month (and were also 10% below the 2019 level). Given that US car sales are still close to the historical lows, the weak dynamics might weigh further on the automotive demand for PGMs, especially given the growing interest for EVs globally

We recap that North America accounted for ~22% and ~16% of world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2022
  
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports