Morning Bites (part 3)
🔋Albemarle is halting its expansion and cutting jobs amid plunging lithium prices, we understand from a company press-release. The world’s largest Li mining company (21% of global supply in 2022) has announced vast plans to slash business costs on the back of low lithium prices (-80% vs. 2022 highs). Albemarle expects this year’s Capex at USD 1.6-1.8bn, vs. USD 2.1bn spent in 2023. However, the company noted that it remained focused on potentially reopening its Kings Mountain mine in the US, with initial capacity of 50kt LCE (6% of global Li supply in 2022). Overall, the news might indicate a little potential downside for already subdued Li prices, as developing new projects has become unprofitable at current levels
#lithium
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🔋Albemarle is halting its expansion and cutting jobs amid plunging lithium prices, we understand from a company press-release. The world’s largest Li mining company (21% of global supply in 2022) has announced vast plans to slash business costs on the back of low lithium prices (-80% vs. 2022 highs). Albemarle expects this year’s Capex at USD 1.6-1.8bn, vs. USD 2.1bn spent in 2023. However, the company noted that it remained focused on potentially reopening its Kings Mountain mine in the US, with initial capacity of 50kt LCE (6% of global Li supply in 2022). Overall, the news might indicate a little potential downside for already subdued Li prices, as developing new projects has become unprofitable at current levels
#lithium
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
👍2
Alcoa 4Q23 results - EBITDA remains subdued
✏️Alcoa's 4Q23 revenues met the consensus and were broadly in line with us. However, EBITDA remained materially depressed (-84% vs. the 2022 avg.), on the back of weak Al prices and the persistent inflationary pressures (specifically, driven by high EU energy costs)
🔮 For 2024, the company expects 9.8-10.0mnt of alumina output (-9% YoY), with shipments of 12.7-12.9mnt (flat YoY), reflecting externally sourced alumina due to the curtailment of the Kwinana refinery, Alcoa added
📌 Meanwhile, the aluminium segment's output is seen at 2.2-2.3mnt in 2024 (+6% YoY amid smelter restarts), with shipments at 2.5-2.6mnt (+2% YoY) as increased sales from restarted smelters are offset by lower trading volumes
❗️At spot, we expect Alcoa’s 1Q24F EBITDA to remain at subdued levels, as the prices of its key metals remain low, while the company anticipates higher maintenance costs and lower shipments in Australia in 1Q24
#AA #Aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/company/AA_U
✏️Alcoa's 4Q23 revenues met the consensus and were broadly in line with us. However, EBITDA remained materially depressed (-84% vs. the 2022 avg.), on the back of weak Al prices and the persistent inflationary pressures (specifically, driven by high EU energy costs)
🔮 For 2024, the company expects 9.8-10.0mnt of alumina output (-9% YoY), with shipments of 12.7-12.9mnt (flat YoY), reflecting externally sourced alumina due to the curtailment of the Kwinana refinery, Alcoa added
📌 Meanwhile, the aluminium segment's output is seen at 2.2-2.3mnt in 2024 (+6% YoY amid smelter restarts), with shipments at 2.5-2.6mnt (+2% YoY) as increased sales from restarted smelters are offset by lower trading volumes
❗️At spot, we expect Alcoa’s 1Q24F EBITDA to remain at subdued levels, as the prices of its key metals remain low, while the company anticipates higher maintenance costs and lower shipments in Australia in 1Q24
#AA #Aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/company/AA_U
Morning Bites (part 1)
💍Luk Fook’s 4Q23 LFL sales rose 37% YoY in the gem-set, platinum and K-gold jewellery segment (in line with the +36% YoY in 3Q23). Meanwhile, sales in the gem-set segment in Mainland China were down only 2% YoY (vs. -20% YoY in 3Q23). At the same time, HK and Macau sales surged 46% YoY (but were -9% vs. 2019, on our numbers), as the border with Mainland China reopened in early 2023. Luk Fook expects the strong growth momentum to continue in the HK and Macau markets. In our view, were consumer sentiment in the key US and China downstream markets to improve further in early 2024 (~53% and 12% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade, respectively), that might add support to the stressed diamond sector
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍Luk Fook’s 4Q23 LFL sales rose 37% YoY in the gem-set, platinum and K-gold jewellery segment (in line with the +36% YoY in 3Q23). Meanwhile, sales in the gem-set segment in Mainland China were down only 2% YoY (vs. -20% YoY in 3Q23). At the same time, HK and Macau sales surged 46% YoY (but were -9% vs. 2019, on our numbers), as the border with Mainland China reopened in early 2023. Luk Fook expects the strong growth momentum to continue in the HK and Macau markets. In our view, were consumer sentiment in the key US and China downstream markets to improve further in early 2024 (~53% and 12% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade, respectively), that might add support to the stressed diamond sector
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations were down 2% YoY in December, marking the first decline in 17 months - in line with our estimates. At the same time, the sales remained 17% below their pre-COVID, 2019 level (-11% in November). In our view, EU car sales are unlikely to recover in the short term, amid the ongoing inflationary pressures and slow economic activity in the region (indicated by persistently weak local PMI data), which might put additional pressure on global PGM consumption
To recap, the EU+UK accounted for some 20% and 32% of the world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively, in 2022
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations were down 2% YoY in December, marking the first decline in 17 months - in line with our estimates. At the same time, the sales remained 17% below their pre-COVID, 2019 level (-11% in November). In our view, EU car sales are unlikely to recover in the short term, amid the ongoing inflationary pressures and slow economic activity in the region (indicated by persistently weak local PMI data), which might put additional pressure on global PGM consumption
To recap, the EU+UK accounted for some 20% and 32% of the world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively, in 2022
#cars
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (part 3)
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output jumped 15% YoY in November (partially due to the low base effect), following the 17% YoY spike in October, according to official statistics. Meanwhile, the country’s gold production declined 3% YoY (vs. the +2% YoY in October). Although the country's PGM production recovered somewhat in November, we remind readers that two major SA players, Sibanye and Implats, have announced job cuts in response to the low PGM prices and local infrastructure challenges. At the same time, the demand for PGMs remains weak, amid inflationary pressures and growing appetite for EVs globally
To recap, SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of global gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output jumped 15% YoY in November (partially due to the low base effect), following the 17% YoY spike in October, according to official statistics. Meanwhile, the country’s gold production declined 3% YoY (vs. the +2% YoY in October). Although the country's PGM production recovered somewhat in November, we remind readers that two major SA players, Sibanye and Implats, have announced job cuts in response to the low PGM prices and local infrastructure challenges. At the same time, the demand for PGMs remains weak, amid inflationary pressures and growing appetite for EVs globally
To recap, SA accounts for ~70% of global Pt, 38% of Pd supply and 3% of global gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Week ahead data releases in M&M
This week, among the major miners, only Freeport McMoran is due to release its 4Q23 earnings. Our forecast for the company's EBITDA is moderately above the consensus estimate
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
This week, among the major miners, only Freeport McMoran is due to release its 4Q23 earnings. Our forecast for the company's EBITDA is moderately above the consensus estimate
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚗💨Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in Europe were up 1% YoY in 4Q23, in line with the 3Q23 dynamics. Petrol car sales rose 6% YoY (vs. +5% YoY in 3Q23), while diesel car registrations fell 11% YoY. Diesel cars accounted for 24% of total ICE car sales, 1pp lower than in 3Q23. Generally, sales remained well below the 2019 levels, which is a negative factor for PGM prices: the EU represents 20% and 31% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, respectively
🚘 EV sales in Europe declined 9% YoY in 4Q23, mostly due to the high base effect, after the +35% YoY seen in 3Q23. Specifically, BEV sales were down 4% YoY (vs. +50% YoY in 3Q23), while PHEV sales fell 17% YoY. The share of BEVs in total EV sales decreased slightly to 67%, from 69% in 3Q23. Overall, the growing appetite for EVs is likely to have a positive effect on the demand for battery metals (e.g. nickel, lithium and cobalt)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
🚗💨Internal combustion engine (ICE) car registrations in Europe were up 1% YoY in 4Q23, in line with the 3Q23 dynamics. Petrol car sales rose 6% YoY (vs. +5% YoY in 3Q23), while diesel car registrations fell 11% YoY. Diesel cars accounted for 24% of total ICE car sales, 1pp lower than in 3Q23. Generally, sales remained well below the 2019 levels, which is a negative factor for PGM prices: the EU represents 20% and 31% of global Pd and Pt autocatalyst demand, respectively
🚘 EV sales in Europe declined 9% YoY in 4Q23, mostly due to the high base effect, after the +35% YoY seen in 3Q23. Specifically, BEV sales were down 4% YoY (vs. +50% YoY in 3Q23), while PHEV sales fell 17% YoY. The share of BEVs in total EV sales decreased slightly to 67%, from 69% in 3Q23. Overall, the growing appetite for EVs is likely to have a positive effect on the demand for battery metals (e.g. nickel, lithium and cobalt)
#cars #EV #nickel #lithium #cobalt
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
💍Richemont jewellery segment sales grew 6% YoY in 4Q23, accelerating from +1% YoY in 3Q23, according to a company press-release. Specifically, the sales growth was recorded across almost all regions, primarily driven by Japan (+8% YoY), Asia Pacific (+8% YoY) and the Americas (+3% YoY), while the slowdown in Europe (-4% YoY) was mainly due to a drop in tourist spending, Richemont explained. Although the company did not provide an outlook for 2024 sales yet, we believe that further consumer sentiment improvement in the key US and China downstream markets (~53% and 12% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade, respectively) might trigger a recovery in the stressed diamond sector
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍Richemont jewellery segment sales grew 6% YoY in 4Q23, accelerating from +1% YoY in 3Q23, according to a company press-release. Specifically, the sales growth was recorded across almost all regions, primarily driven by Japan (+8% YoY), Asia Pacific (+8% YoY) and the Americas (+3% YoY), while the slowdown in Europe (-4% YoY) was mainly due to a drop in tourist spending, Richemont explained. Although the company did not provide an outlook for 2024 sales yet, we believe that further consumer sentiment improvement in the key US and China downstream markets (~53% and 12% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade, respectively) might trigger a recovery in the stressed diamond sector
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 3)
💎GJEPC has asked the Indian government to cut import duties on rough stones from 5% to 2.5%, as it seeks to support the local diamond industry’s competitiveness in the international market, IDEX reports. Were this to be accepted, in addition to the other potential breaks in India's upcoming Union Budget (due on 1 February), that would notably bolster the local midstream margin (which has historically been at 2-5%). Hence, the measure would support global rough demand, as well as an overall recovery in the stressed diamond sector, we believe
To recap, India accounts for ~95% of the world’s polished stones supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎GJEPC has asked the Indian government to cut import duties on rough stones from 5% to 2.5%, as it seeks to support the local diamond industry’s competitiveness in the international market, IDEX reports. Were this to be accepted, in addition to the other potential breaks in India's upcoming Union Budget (due on 1 February), that would notably bolster the local midstream margin (which has historically been at 2-5%). Hence, the measure would support global rough demand, as well as an overall recovery in the stressed diamond sector, we believe
To recap, India accounts for ~95% of the world’s polished stones supply
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏭Global primary aluminium output was up 2% YoY in December, in line with the revised 2% YoY growth in November, the International Aluminium Institute reports. China’s output (59% of global Al output in 2023) rose 2% YoY (also +3% YoY in 2023), following the improved power supply in previously drought-hit parts of the country's hydro-electric system. In our view, a recovery in construction activity in China (~58% of global primary Al demand in 2022), bolstered by a new economic stimulus, remains the main potential trigger for subdued Al prices (-20% at spot vs. the 2022 average), with >50% of global Al suppliers breakeven or loss-making at current prices, on our numbers
Regarding the outlook for 2024, some industry participants expect China’s aluminium supply to rise >2% YoY to 42.7mnt, as new projects could start up in 3Q24
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output was up 2% YoY in December, in line with the revised 2% YoY growth in November, the International Aluminium Institute reports. China’s output (59% of global Al output in 2023) rose 2% YoY (also +3% YoY in 2023), following the improved power supply in previously drought-hit parts of the country's hydro-electric system. In our view, a recovery in construction activity in China (~58% of global primary Al demand in 2022), bolstered by a new economic stimulus, remains the main potential trigger for subdued Al prices (-20% at spot vs. the 2022 average), with >50% of global Al suppliers breakeven or loss-making at current prices, on our numbers
Regarding the outlook for 2024, some industry participants expect China’s aluminium supply to rise >2% YoY to 42.7mnt, as new projects could start up in 3Q24
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Aluminium
Morning Bites (part 2)
⛏Wyloo has halted nickel mining in Western Australia due to low prices, Reuters reports, citing a company statement. On our numbers, the miner’s Kambalda operations account for ~1% of global class-1 Ni supply and 0.3% of total Ni output. To recap, First Quantum has also recently shut down its Ravensthorpe nickel mine for two years. Although the supply side has started to react to the continuous Ni price decline (-45% YoY in 2023), the potential cost support level might be still distant, as low grade Indonesian miners (~48% of global Ni supply) are likely to be more resistant due to their higher margins
#Nickel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
⛏Wyloo has halted nickel mining in Western Australia due to low prices, Reuters reports, citing a company statement. On our numbers, the miner’s Kambalda operations account for ~1% of global class-1 Ni supply and 0.3% of total Ni output. To recap, First Quantum has also recently shut down its Ravensthorpe nickel mine for two years. Although the supply side has started to react to the continuous Ni price decline (-45% YoY in 2023), the potential cost support level might be still distant, as low grade Indonesian miners (~48% of global Ni supply) are likely to be more resistant due to their higher margins
#Nickel
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports
Morning Bites
🥉Global copper production inched up 0.8% YoY in 11mo23 to 20.1mnt, the International Copper Study Group reports, while November output rose 1.1% YoY (vs. +0.8% YoY in October). Despite some significant production growth in Peru and D.R. Congo, the global dynamics have been limited by operational issues in Chile, China, Indonesia, Panama and the US. In addition, Cobre Panama, a major copper mine (~2% of global Cu supply) suspended operations in late November amid continuous social unrest, with the company anticipating the mine's closure by mid-2024. In our view, this might add some stress to the global copper supply in 2024
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🥉Global copper production inched up 0.8% YoY in 11mo23 to 20.1mnt, the International Copper Study Group reports, while November output rose 1.1% YoY (vs. +0.8% YoY in October). Despite some significant production growth in Peru and D.R. Congo, the global dynamics have been limited by operational issues in Chile, China, Indonesia, Panama and the US. In addition, Cobre Panama, a major copper mine (~2% of global Cu supply) suspended operations in late November amid continuous social unrest, with the company anticipating the mine's closure by mid-2024. In our view, this might add some stress to the global copper supply in 2024
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Freeport McMoran 4Q23 results — meet expectations
✏️Freeport's 4Q23 revenues broadly met consensus and our estimates. Adjusted EBITDA was also roughly as expected (+3% vs. the consensus, and -1% vs. us)
⛏Regarding the outlook for 2024, the miner anticipates copper sales to remain flat YoY, while gold sales are to grow >15% YoY. The company guides for 2024 net unit cash costs to stay unchanged vs. the 2023 average of USD 1.60/lb
📈 Freeport said that the short-term market fundamentals improved in late-2023 as supply growth estimates declined, in addition to the general backdrop of low copper inventories and persistently strong demand for renewables globally
❗️At spot, we expect Freeport’s 1Q24F EBITDA to stay roughly unchanged QoQ, as metal prices remain close to 4Q23 levels, along with the guided flat copper sales volumes
#FCX #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/FCX_US
✏️Freeport's 4Q23 revenues broadly met consensus and our estimates. Adjusted EBITDA was also roughly as expected (+3% vs. the consensus, and -1% vs. us)
⛏Regarding the outlook for 2024, the miner anticipates copper sales to remain flat YoY, while gold sales are to grow >15% YoY. The company guides for 2024 net unit cash costs to stay unchanged vs. the 2023 average of USD 1.60/lb
📈 Freeport said that the short-term market fundamentals improved in late-2023 as supply growth estimates declined, in addition to the general backdrop of low copper inventories and persistently strong demand for renewables globally
❗️At spot, we expect Freeport’s 1Q24F EBITDA to stay roughly unchanged QoQ, as metal prices remain close to 4Q23 levels, along with the guided flat copper sales volumes
#FCX #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/FCX_US
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production during mid-January was reported at 2.09mnt, up 3.7% from the previous ten days, and +8.1% YoY. Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 6.7% over the period (-4.5% YoY). In our view, Beijing's efforts to support the local economy via the real estate sector could bolster domestic construction activity in 2024 and, hence, steel products prices
We also note that CISA expects local steel production to decrease to 950mnt in 2025 (-7% vs. 2023), which might also add support to global prices, if it materialises, given that China represents ~57% of world steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills daily crude steel production during mid-January was reported at 2.09mnt, up 3.7% from the previous ten days, and +8.1% YoY. Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 6.7% over the period (-4.5% YoY). In our view, Beijing's efforts to support the local economy via the real estate sector could bolster domestic construction activity in 2024 and, hence, steel products prices
We also note that CISA expects local steel production to decrease to 950mnt in 2025 (-7% vs. 2023), which might also add support to global prices, if it materialises, given that China represents ~57% of world steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎Mountain Province’s revenues dropped 18% YoY in 2023, according to a company trading update. Last year, the miner produced 5.6mnct (~5% of global supply), at the low end of its guidance (5.6-6.1mnct). However, it sold 2.7mnct in 2023 (the same as in 2022) at an avg. realised price of USD 90/ct, down from USD 112/ct the year before. In particular, 4Q23 sales were down 17% YoY to USD 58.9mn: sales volumes increased 21% YoY to 0.92mnct, but the average price fell 32% YoY to USD 64/ct. To recap, on our numbers, junior miners have been loss-making at spot since mid-2023
At the same time, a further improvement in sentiment in the key US and China downstream markets (~53% and 12% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade, respectively) might trigger a recovery in the stressed diamond sector, we believe. We note that buyers have appeared more positive at some minor auctions in early-2024, showing strong bidding
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎Mountain Province’s revenues dropped 18% YoY in 2023, according to a company trading update. Last year, the miner produced 5.6mnct (~5% of global supply), at the low end of its guidance (5.6-6.1mnct). However, it sold 2.7mnct in 2023 (the same as in 2022) at an avg. realised price of USD 90/ct, down from USD 112/ct the year before. In particular, 4Q23 sales were down 17% YoY to USD 58.9mn: sales volumes increased 21% YoY to 0.92mnct, but the average price fell 32% YoY to USD 64/ct. To recap, on our numbers, junior miners have been loss-making at spot since mid-2023
At the same time, a further improvement in sentiment in the key US and China downstream markets (~53% and 12% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade, respectively) might trigger a recovery in the stressed diamond sector, we believe. We note that buyers have appeared more positive at some minor auctions in early-2024, showing strong bidding
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 3)
☢️ Canadian uranium mine McClean Lake is set to restart production in 2025, according to an official press release. Operations at the site were suspended in 2008, following a decline in uranium prices. The mine’s targeted output in 2025 is ~310ktU (~0.5% of the global 2022 mined supply) with ~1,150ktU (~2% of 2022 supply) potential additional production from the McClean North and Caribou deposits expected in 2026-2030. At the end of 2023, spot uranium prices hit 15 year highs, amid supply issues and growing state interest in nuclear energy. Although the current price level makes the development of inefficient projects feasible, we do not expect it to be persistent, as new capacities are likely to emerge in the near future
#uranium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Uranium
☢️ Canadian uranium mine McClean Lake is set to restart production in 2025, according to an official press release. Operations at the site were suspended in 2008, following a decline in uranium prices. The mine’s targeted output in 2025 is ~310ktU (~0.5% of the global 2022 mined supply) with ~1,150ktU (~2% of 2022 supply) potential additional production from the McClean North and Caribou deposits expected in 2026-2030. At the end of 2023, spot uranium prices hit 15 year highs, amid supply issues and growing state interest in nuclear energy. Although the current price level makes the development of inefficient projects feasible, we do not expect it to be persistent, as new capacities are likely to emerge in the near future
#uranium
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Uranium
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏆China’s gold production was up 2% YoY in 4Q23, reversing from the -3% YoY in 3Q23, according to data from the China Gold Association. Meanwhile, the country's gold consumption grew 14% YoY in 4Q23 vs. the -7% YoY seen in 3Q23, (and was also 9% above the pre-COVID level). Specifically, gold jewellery demand increased 17% YoY, after the 9% YoY drop in 3Q23. Although Chinese gold output (~9% of the metal's supply worldwide) is showing some recovery, we keep our bullish view on gold, as demand from global CBs remains solid, in addition to miners' rising cash costs and the potentially lower key rates in the world's top economies (e.g. the EU and US) in 2024
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🏆China’s gold production was up 2% YoY in 4Q23, reversing from the -3% YoY in 3Q23, according to data from the China Gold Association. Meanwhile, the country's gold consumption grew 14% YoY in 4Q23 vs. the -7% YoY seen in 3Q23, (and was also 9% above the pre-COVID level). Specifically, gold jewellery demand increased 17% YoY, after the 9% YoY drop in 3Q23. Although Chinese gold output (~9% of the metal's supply worldwide) is showing some recovery, we keep our bullish view on gold, as demand from global CBs remains solid, in addition to miners' rising cash costs and the potentially lower key rates in the world's top economies (e.g. the EU and US) in 2024
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗Global crude steel output declined 5% YoY to 136mnt in December, after the 3% YoY growth in November, the World Steel Association reports. Meanwhile, China’s production (~50% of global crude steel supply in December vs. traditionally ~57%) has dropped 15% YoY, after the flat dynamics seen in November, in order to meet the supply cap. At the same time, ex-China steel output rose 7% YoY. Specifically, EU supply was up 3% YoY (also +3% YoY in November), most likely due to the low base effect (the output fell 11% YoY in December 2022). On the other hand, Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) surged 10% YoY in December (+12% YoY in 2023). US steel production gained 8% YoY (flat YoY in 2023), while Russia’s output grew 4% YoY (+6% in 2023)
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗Global crude steel output declined 5% YoY to 136mnt in December, after the 3% YoY growth in November, the World Steel Association reports. Meanwhile, China’s production (~50% of global crude steel supply in December vs. traditionally ~57%) has dropped 15% YoY, after the flat dynamics seen in November, in order to meet the supply cap. At the same time, ex-China steel output rose 7% YoY. Specifically, EU supply was up 3% YoY (also +3% YoY in November), most likely due to the low base effect (the output fell 11% YoY in December 2022). On the other hand, Indian output (~8% of global steel supply) surged 10% YoY in December (+12% YoY in 2023). US steel production gained 8% YoY (flat YoY in 2023), while Russia’s output grew 4% YoY (+6% in 2023)
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 3)
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery gained 3% YoY in 4Q23, in line with the +3% YoY in 3Q23, the company reports. Meanwhile, the segment's organic sales were up 7% YoY in 2023, amid store chain expansions and the release of new collections. Although LVMH has noted that the geopolitical and macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, it is still confident in its 2024 performance. Overall, even the stable YoY dynamics of retailers’ sales seen in 4Q23 is likely to be positive for sentiment on the stressed diamond sector, we believe. At the same time, further sales growth in the key US and China downstream markets (~53% and 12% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade, respectively) might trigger a recovery in the diamond sector in 2024
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍LVMH's organic sales of watches and jewellery gained 3% YoY in 4Q23, in line with the +3% YoY in 3Q23, the company reports. Meanwhile, the segment's organic sales were up 7% YoY in 2023, amid store chain expansions and the release of new collections. Although LVMH has noted that the geopolitical and macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, it is still confident in its 2024 performance. Overall, even the stable YoY dynamics of retailers’ sales seen in 4Q23 is likely to be positive for sentiment on the stressed diamond sector, we believe. At the same time, further sales growth in the key US and China downstream markets (~53% and 12% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade, respectively) might trigger a recovery in the diamond sector in 2024
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Week ahead data releases in M&M
This week, Cleveland-Cliffs and Southern Copper are to report their 4Q23 earnings: our EBITDA forecasts for both names are in the low-single digits above the consensus estimates. Meanwhile, we also await De Beers's sales results at its 1st Cycle in 2024. Rapaport sources expect rather limited demand at the sight, with sales of USD ~300mn (50% less than the historical average)
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events
This week, Cleveland-Cliffs and Southern Copper are to report their 4Q23 earnings: our EBITDA forecasts for both names are in the low-single digits above the consensus estimates. Meanwhile, we also await De Beers's sales results at its 1st Cycle in 2024. Rapaport sources expect rather limited demand at the sight, with sales of USD ~300mn (50% less than the historical average)
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com/events