Morning Bites

🔗Arcelor Mittal has halted operations in Bosnia amid soft demand, Reuters reports. The company’s 1mnt Zenica steel plant, and the mines supplying it with iron ore, are both set to close due to subdued steel demand in Europe and growing costs. Per Arcelor Mittal, labour costs have risen 32% since 2020, given high inflation. Although the plant accounted for less than 1% of European output, news of its closure underpins the trend of weakening demand in the region, we believe. On our numbers, EU apparent steel consumption in 10mo23 was down 3% YoY (and 18% lower than in 10mo21). We also remind readers that Arcelor Mittal reduced its European production 7% YoY in 3Q23, marking the 8th consecutive quarter of declines

#steel  #MT
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel

Morning Bites

🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 4% YoY in October, in line with the revised 4% YoY growth in September, the International Aluminium Institute reports. Specifically, China’s production jumped 5% YoY, while ex-China production gained 2% YoY. Overall, China (59% of the global Al output in 2022) is ramping-up its production (+3.2% YoY in 10mo23) due to improved power supply in previously drought-hit parts of the country's hydro-electric system. This dynamic approaches previous estimates of the maximum resumption of 1.3mnt of China’s halted Al capacity (~2% of global 2022 output). Meanwhile, we do not expect a more robust production increase in the short-term, given that >50% of global Al suppliers are currently breakeven or loss-making at spot, on our numbers, due to low Al prices

#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Aluminium

Morning Bites

🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations rose 15% YoY in October, after the 12% YoY growth in September. The results roughly met our estimates. However, the sales figures were still 14% below the pre-COVID, 2019 level (-9% in September). To recap, the EU+UK accounted for some 20% and 32% of the world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively, in 2022. Overall, given the ongoing inflationary pressures and persistently weak PMI data in the region, we maintain our cautious view on European car sales. We believe that this factor is likely to keep pressuring PGM consumption, at least in the near future

#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM

Morning Bites

🔗Global crude steel output inched up 1% YoY to 150mnt in October, after the 2% YoY decline in September, the World Steel Association reports. Meanwhile, China’s production shrank 2% YoY, decelerating from the 6% YoY fall in September, while ex-China steel output was up 3% YoY. Specifically, EU supply dropped 7% YoY (vs. the 1% YoY decline in September), against the backdrop of the local energy crisis. On the other hand, output in India (~7% of global steel supply) surged 15% YoY in October (+12% YoY in 10mo23). US steel production added 3% YoY, while Russia’s output rose 10% YoY, in line with the September dynamics

Beijing’s plan to keep national steel output below 2022 levels looks ambitious to us, given that the figure was still up >1% YoY in 10mo23, despite recent production cuts. China represents ~57% of global crude steel supply

#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel

Morning Bites (part 1)

🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production during mid-November was 1.97mnt, a 0.1% decline from the previous ten days and a 1.6% drop YoY. Meanwhile, local steel inventories rose 4.4% over the same period (-11.4% YoY). Output declined for the 7th consecutive 10-day period, however Chinese steel production on a YTD basis was still up 2.1% YoY, per the CISA data. Overall, as of now, Beijing’s stated intention to cap national steel output below the 2022 levels looks rather unrealistic to us, given that the output for the rest of the year would have to be on average ~18% YoY lower to meet the supply target. To recap, China represents ~57% of global steel output

#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel

Morning Bites (part 2)

🇵🇦Cobre Panama has halted commercial production on the back of the protests which have blocked key supplies to the copper mine, Reuters reports, citing a First Quantum message. However, the company expects operations to resume once the recently started port blockade has been resolved. In our view, were the ongoing supply issues to persist, that might add some support for copper prices. To recap, Cobre Panama accounts for ~2% of global copper output

💎 Stornoway diamond miner is on sale amid financial issues, IDEX reports. The company filed for bankruptcy protection last month, and has now suspended operations at Renard, its only diamond mine (~1% of global rough supply) in Quebec, citing India's two-month rough imports ban as one of the reasons. Overall, the news underpins our cautious view on the diamond sector, amid adverse macroeconomic conditions globally

#copper #diamonds
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports

Morning Bites (part 1)

🏗China’s preliminary excavator sales were down 34% YoY in November (domestic + export), following the 29% YoY decline in October, according to CME estimates. Specifically, domestic sales (a key indicator of construction activity) are set to be 47% weaker YoY, after the 43% YoY drop in October. In our view, this trend, if it persists, would indicate that there is no recovery in China's stressed real estate sector, despite Beijing's efforts to bolster the sector. However, the new potential stimulus for the local economy might add support to construction activity and bolster the demand for industrial metals (e.g. steel, copper and aluminium) in 2024

#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel

Morning Bites (part 2)

📌 The Platinum market is set to be in a deficit in 2023-24, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) reports. Per the WPIC, demand is to grow ~26% YoY in FY23 amid automotive and industrial demand recovery, as well as a surge in investment demand (16% of total demand in 2022). Meantime, supply is set to drop ~3% YoY in 2023, mostly due to lower secondary supplies. We also note two recently announced job cut programmes in SA (~70% of global platinum supply) amid the protracted decline in PGM prices (-13% YTD for platinum) given weak automotive demand, which might also weigh on supply in 2024

However, WPIC expectations are far more bullish than ours: the WPIC expects the market to be in deficits of 1,071koz and 353koz in 2023 and 2024 respectively, while our estimates imply only a ~140koz deficit in 2023 and a ~60koz surplus in 2024

#cars 
https://metals-wire.com/sector/PGM

Morning Bites

🥉Global copper production rose 1.1% YoY in 9mo23, the International Copper Study Group reports. Specifically, in September, output was roughly flat (+0.4% YoY) vs. the revised +3.0% YoY in August. Over the period, new start-ups and expansions were mainly offset by operational issues in Chile (-1.9% YoY in 9mo23, as per the ICSG) in addition to the drought and lower ore grades in the country. Meanwhile, Indonesian output was down 9% YoY in 9mo23 due to operational constraints at the Grasberg mine. At the same time, output in the DRC grew ~7.0% YoY in 9mo23, mainly on the back of the Kamoa mine expanding, while Peruvian mine production increased 16% YoY in 9mo23, despite actions by the local communities

#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper

Morning Bites (part 1)

🔗ArcelorMittal has halted operations in South Africa, amid failing power and transport systems as well as a skilled labour deficit, Bloomberg reports. The steelmaker’s facilities are to be switched into maintenance mode, while 3,500 workers (~40% of its total SA headcount) are to be laid off. Of note, this continues the series of recently announced job cuts, which might indicate a worsening economic environment in the country. Arcelor has also closed its facilities in Bosnia amid weakening demand

ArcelorMittal South Africa is the largest steel producer in the region, with 2.5mnt (implies ~30% capacity utilisation rate) produced in 2022 (0.1% of global steel output in 2022, but 17% of total African production in 2022)

#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel

Morning Bites (part 2)

💎Angola has officially opened Luaxe, one of the world's largest diamond deposits, Reuters reports. The initial plan implied launch in 2020, but it was postponed due to Covid-19. The project has an estimated resource base of 628mnct with an average grade of 0.95ct/t and a ~60-year lifetime. During the pilot stage alone, Luaxe mined 5mnct of diamonds. Although the production plan wasn’t disclosed, we estimate that with an initial annual capacity of ~4mnct and the option to increase to ~11.5mnct, the deposit might account for 3-9% of global mined diamonds output in 2022. In our view, this large project was launched at a difficult time for the diamond market, driven by overstocking issues, falling prices and various supply constraints, which might result in protracted mine ramp-up, we believe

#diamonds     
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds

Morning Bites (part 1)

📉Russia’s gold output dropped 26.7% YoY in October, accelerating from the 9.2% YoY drop in September, per Rosstat data. In our view, this sharp decline was mostly driven by the high base effect (output surged 19.1% YoY in October 2022). There have now been four consecutive months of YoY declines, pushing Russia’s 10mo23 gold output 2.2% lower YoY. Overall, we maintain our positive outlook on gold performance, amid strong physical demand and rising cash costs for gold miners, as well as the unfavourable macroeconomic conditions globally. Of note, Russia accounts for ~9% of the world's mined gold output

#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold

Morning Bites (part 2)

📈China’s output of aluminium products rose 5% YoY to 5.5mnt in October, after the 2% YoY growth in September. In our view, the positive impact of persistently strong demand for aluminium in China (~58% of global primary Al consumption in 2022) might be at least partially offset by the increase in global aluminium output, which is growing at a comparable rate

🥉Chinese output of copper products inched up 1% YoY in October to 2.0mnt, reversing from the -9% YoY in September. Domestic power generation equipment output showed similar dynamics (vs. +17% in September). We remind our readers that China remains the world's major copper consumer, representing ~55% of global Cu demand

#aluminium #copper 
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports

Morning Bites (part 1)

⛏PGM miner Sibanye-Stillwater is to cut jobs at its Americas operations, Reuters reports. Overall, this continues a series of recent job cuts in favour of cost reduction among major PGM miners. Sibanye has said that although its US operations have recovered from the stoppage after the recent accident, cost pressures remained elevated. As a result, the company is to release 100 employees. It also plans to shed 187 contract workers (~70% of its current non-essential mining contract workforce). The company noted that the restructuring would not significantly affect 2E output. Overall, the series of job cuts among PGM miners indicates that the supply side has started to react to consistently weak prices: palladium has fallen >40% YTD, while the platinum price has declined >10% YTD from already subdued levels. Meanwhile, adverse economic conditions are pressuring automotive demand for PGMs. We therefore believe that the supply cuts might continue

#PGMs
https://metals-wire.com/news-reports

Morning Bites (part 2)
 
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales surged 45% YoY in October, accelerating from the 30% YoY rise in September. However, this was mostly due to the low base effect (October 2022 was the second weakest month last year, while the October 2023 results were 2% below the 2021 levels). Overall, given the persistently high inflation and weak sentiment on the major consumer markets (the US and China account for 53% and 12% of global gem-set jewellery trade, respectively), we keep our cautious view on the diamond sector
 
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds

Morning Bites (part 1)

🌏Global manufacturing PMIs were broadly weak in November. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was 44.2 (vs. consensus estimates of 43.8), a slight increase from October's 43.1. The US ISM manufacturing PMI was unchanged MoM at 46.7

🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China slightly fell to 49.4 in November (49.5 in October), below 49.7 estimates. However, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI recovered to 50.7 in November (from 49.5), beating the consensus estimates of 49.8

❗️Overall global PMIs remained below 50.0, which might weigh further on the manufacturing sector. However, Beijing's efforts to bolster the local economy via the property sector might support the country’s construction activity and, therefore, the demand for industrial metals (e.g. steel, copper and aluminium) in 2024

#PMIs 
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Morning Bites (part 2)

🇨🇱Chile’s copper production fell 4% YoY in October, reversing from the 4% YoY increase in September, remaining near historical lows. Meanwhile, in 10mo23, output was down 2% YoY. We note that the persistent drought and unfavourable structural effects (e.g. grade depletion) continue to pressure Chile's mining industry. Chile represents ~27% of the world’s mined copper output, and if the adverse factors in its mining sector persist, in addition to the ongoing supply disruptions at a major mine in Panama, that could at least partially offset the supply additions from new Cu projects (e.g. QB2 and Udokan), which are due to ramp up in the near future

#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper

Morning Bites (part 3)

💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales rose 27% YoY in October, following the 28% YoY increase in September, according to the government data. To recap, the reopening of HK’s border with the Mainland became a major trigger for the trade recovery in early 2023 (and in October, 3.5mn visitors arrived in HK vs. 81k a year ago). Sales were also 30% stronger than the pre-Covid 2019 levels. Despite some recovery in HK, sentiment remains subdued in the key US and China diamond markets (~53% and ~12% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade, respectively). Hence, given the adverse economic conditions globally, as well as the supply discipline measures recently taken by major miners and the midstream, we reiterate our cautious view on the diamond sector, at least in the short term

#diamonds   
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds