Week ahead data releases in M&M
Reporting season is drawing to a close, and several major M&M names are due to release their 3Q23 financials this week. Regarding Kinross, we are slightly more conservative than the consensus. Meanwhile, we expect Arcelor to reveal upbeat EBITDA figures
We also await the official customs data from China and De Beers’ sales results
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
Reporting season is drawing to a close, and several major M&M names are due to release their 3Q23 financials this week. Regarding Kinross, we are slightly more conservative than the consensus. Meanwhile, we expect Arcelor to reveal upbeat EBITDA figures
We also await the official customs data from China and De Beers’ sales results
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for October (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s net finished steel exports surged 65% YoY in October, following the 81% YoY increase in September. Meanwhile, Chinese steel output remains elevated (+2% YoY in 9mo23), despite Beijing’s plan to cap national steel supply at the 2022 levels. In addition, according to a Mysteel survey, less than 20% of Chinese steel mills were operating at a profit by the end of October (vs. ~33% in late September). This might trigger more production restrictions later in 4Q23 and, hence, bolster steel prices, we believe
🪨China’s coal imports grew 23% YoY in October, decelerating from the +28% YoY in September, as high stocks moderated buying from utilities, according to Reuters. We note that in 10mo23, the figure was up 67% YoY, supported by higher industrial usage, seasonal restocking and tightened domestic supply. To recap, China accounted for 53% of global coal demand in 2022E, according to the IEA estimates
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🔗China’s net finished steel exports surged 65% YoY in October, following the 81% YoY increase in September. Meanwhile, Chinese steel output remains elevated (+2% YoY in 9mo23), despite Beijing’s plan to cap national steel supply at the 2022 levels. In addition, according to a Mysteel survey, less than 20% of Chinese steel mills were operating at a profit by the end of October (vs. ~33% in late September). This might trigger more production restrictions later in 4Q23 and, hence, bolster steel prices, we believe
🪨China’s coal imports grew 23% YoY in October, decelerating from the +28% YoY in September, as high stocks moderated buying from utilities, according to Reuters. We note that in 10mo23, the figure was up 67% YoY, supported by higher industrial usage, seasonal restocking and tightened domestic supply. To recap, China accounted for 53% of global coal demand in 2022E, according to the IEA estimates
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production during late October was 1.92mnt, a 5.7% decline from the previous ten days and a 5.2% drop YoY. Meanwhile, local steel inventories decreased 16.6% over the same period (-16.4% YoY). Although the output declined for the 5th consecutive 10-day period, Chinese steel production on a YTD basis was still up 2.3% YoY, per CISA data. Hence, considering Beijing’s intention to cap national steel output below the 2022 levels, we might see tighter supply later in 4Q23. However, to meet the supply cap, the output for the rest of the year must be on average ~12% YoY lower. In our view, any further production restrictions would be supportive for steel prices. China represents ~57% of global steel output
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production during late October was 1.92mnt, a 5.7% decline from the previous ten days and a 5.2% drop YoY. Meanwhile, local steel inventories decreased 16.6% over the same period (-16.4% YoY). Although the output declined for the 5th consecutive 10-day period, Chinese steel production on a YTD basis was still up 2.3% YoY, per CISA data. Hence, considering Beijing’s intention to cap national steel output below the 2022 levels, we might see tighter supply later in 4Q23. However, to meet the supply cap, the output for the rest of the year must be on average ~12% YoY lower. In our view, any further production restrictions would be supportive for steel prices. China represents ~57% of global steel output
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 3)
🚘US light vehicle sales inched up 2% YoY in October, following the 19% YoY growth in September (but were still 12% below the pre-Covid 2019 level). Seasonally adjusted sales volumes were up 5% YoY last month (-7% vs. 2019). According to a market source, the deceleration in sales was affected by labour union strikes against GM, Ford and Stellantis, which weighed on logistics. Meanwhile, we do not expect the US car market to rebound to pre-Covid levels in 2023 (sales in 10mo23 were +12% YoY, but remain 10% below the 10mo19 figure). Hence, local demand for PGMs from the automotive sector is likely to remain subdued, we believe. Of note, North America accounted for ~22% and 16% of the world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2022
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🚘US light vehicle sales inched up 2% YoY in October, following the 19% YoY growth in September (but were still 12% below the pre-Covid 2019 level). Seasonally adjusted sales volumes were up 5% YoY last month (-7% vs. 2019). According to a market source, the deceleration in sales was affected by labour union strikes against GM, Ford and Stellantis, which weighed on logistics. Meanwhile, we do not expect the US car market to rebound to pre-Covid levels in 2023 (sales in 10mo23 were +12% YoY, but remain 10% below the 10mo19 figure). Hence, local demand for PGMs from the automotive sector is likely to remain subdued, we believe. Of note, North America accounted for ~22% and 16% of the world autocatalyst Pd and Pt consumption, respectively, in 2022
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏦China raised its gold reserves for the 12th consecutive month, purchasing 23t in October (~6% of annualised physical gold demand in 2022), after the +27t in September, Bloomberg reports. Hence, the PBoC's gold holdings now stand at 2,215t, with ~266t added since November 2022 (6% of annualised demand). Overall, given the strong demand from global central banks, as well as miners’ rising cash costs and the potentially lower US Fed funds rate in 1Q24, we maintain our bullish view on gold's performance
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🏦China raised its gold reserves for the 12th consecutive month, purchasing 23t in October (~6% of annualised physical gold demand in 2022), after the +27t in September, Bloomberg reports. Hence, the PBoC's gold holdings now stand at 2,215t, with ~266t added since November 2022 (6% of annualised demand). Overall, given the strong demand from global central banks, as well as miners’ rising cash costs and the potentially lower US Fed funds rate in 1Q24, we maintain our bullish view on gold's performance
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 2)
📉Gold-backed ETFs saw outflows of 37t in October, vs. the -59t in September, marking the 5th month of consecutive declines. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), last month, North American funds sold 28t, while net outflows from the EU were 11t, with only 1t purchased in Asia. As a result, global ETF net outflows in 10mo23 reached 225t (~6% of global physical gold demand in 2022 in annualised terms). We reiterate our view that ETF sales remain one the main factors pressuring gold prices. However, the potential decrease in US Fed funds rate in 1Q24, following the consensus estimates, might add support to the precious metal’s performance
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Gold
📉Gold-backed ETFs saw outflows of 37t in October, vs. the -59t in September, marking the 5th month of consecutive declines. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), last month, North American funds sold 28t, while net outflows from the EU were 11t, with only 1t purchased in Asia. As a result, global ETF net outflows in 10mo23 reached 225t (~6% of global physical gold demand in 2022 in annualised terms). We reiterate our view that ETF sales remain one the main factors pressuring gold prices. However, the potential decrease in US Fed funds rate in 1Q24, following the consensus estimates, might add support to the precious metal’s performance
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Gold
Morning Bites (part 3)
🚷Impala Platinum cuts jobs amid low PGM prices, Reuters reports. Impala has not specified the number of workers it intends to cut. A 2nd major SA PGM player, Sibanye, has also recently declared a restructuring plan that could affect over 4,000 employees (~5% of its 2022 total workforce) in favor of cost reduction. We note that the Pd and Pt prices have declined by 40% and 16%, respectively, since early 2023, as the demand (mainly from the automotive sector) has been weak, while supply has remained generally stable over the same period. In our view, these two announced jobs cuts mean that the supply side has started to react to continuously weak metal prices. Despite the supply reaction, we do not see any substantial short-term positive triggers for PGM performance, as inflationary pressures remain tight, weighing on car sales, along with the strong appetite for EVs globally. Meanwhile, we believe that supply reaction might be protracted
#PGMs
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
🚷Impala Platinum cuts jobs amid low PGM prices, Reuters reports. Impala has not specified the number of workers it intends to cut. A 2nd major SA PGM player, Sibanye, has also recently declared a restructuring plan that could affect over 4,000 employees (~5% of its 2022 total workforce) in favor of cost reduction. We note that the Pd and Pt prices have declined by 40% and 16%, respectively, since early 2023, as the demand (mainly from the automotive sector) has been weak, while supply has remained generally stable over the same period. In our view, these two announced jobs cuts mean that the supply side has started to react to continuously weak metal prices. Despite the supply reaction, we do not see any substantial short-term positive triggers for PGM performance, as inflationary pressures remain tight, weighing on car sales, along with the strong appetite for EVs globally. Meanwhile, we believe that supply reaction might be protracted
#PGMs
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (part 4)
💎De Beers has reported sales of USD 80mn at its 9th cycle in 2023, ~80% below the historical average and 82% weaker YoY (vs. -61% YoY at the 8th cycle in 2023). Overall, the weak dynamics reflect the supply discipline measures announced recently by De Beers and Alrosa (which jointly accounted for 59% of global rough diamonds output in 2022), following sluggish consumer demand and high mid-stream stockpiles. According to De Beers CEO Al Cook, the adverse macroeconomic environment continues to weigh on the diamond sector, with a slow recovery in China's retail sales. Hence, we maintain our cautious view on the diamond sector, amid the unfavourable economic conditions globally and weak sentiment on the main retail gem-set jewellery markets (the US and China, which jointly represent ~65% of the global demand for polished stones)
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎De Beers has reported sales of USD 80mn at its 9th cycle in 2023, ~80% below the historical average and 82% weaker YoY (vs. -61% YoY at the 8th cycle in 2023). Overall, the weak dynamics reflect the supply discipline measures announced recently by De Beers and Alrosa (which jointly accounted for 59% of global rough diamonds output in 2022), following sluggish consumer demand and high mid-stream stockpiles. According to De Beers CEO Al Cook, the adverse macroeconomic environment continues to weigh on the diamond sector, with a slow recovery in China's retail sales. Hence, we maintain our cautious view on the diamond sector, amid the unfavourable economic conditions globally and weak sentiment on the main retail gem-set jewellery markets (the US and China, which jointly represent ~65% of the global demand for polished stones)
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)
💎US jewellery sales fell 2% YoY in September, in-line with the revised 2% YoY drop in August, IDEX reports, citing the US Department of Commerce. This marked the 12th month of consecutive YoY drops since October 2022 (ex. January 2023, with the revised +2% YoY). According to IDEX, although consumer spending is gradually picking up in the US, interest and inflation rates remain elevated, putting pressure on consumer sentiment. Therefore, we maintain our view that the adverse macroeconomic environment globally and the ongoing decline of sales in the US and China (which jointly represent ~65% of the global demand for polished stones) is likely to keep weighing on the demand for rough diamonds, at least in the short term
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎US jewellery sales fell 2% YoY in September, in-line with the revised 2% YoY drop in August, IDEX reports, citing the US Department of Commerce. This marked the 12th month of consecutive YoY drops since October 2022 (ex. January 2023, with the revised +2% YoY). According to IDEX, although consumer spending is gradually picking up in the US, interest and inflation rates remain elevated, putting pressure on consumer sentiment. Therefore, we maintain our view that the adverse macroeconomic environment globally and the ongoing decline of sales in the US and China (which jointly represent ~65% of the global demand for polished stones) is likely to keep weighing on the demand for rough diamonds, at least in the short term
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 14% YoY in October, vs. +12% YoY in September. However, the figure was still 15% below the (2019) pre-COVID level. Specifically, in Germany and Spain, car sales were down 23% and 17%, respectively, vs. the 2019 level, while registrations in France and Italy were 19% and 12% lower, respectively. However, sales in the UK were up 7% vs. the 2019 figures, marking the first positive dynamics compared with the pre-COVID year. Given that these five countries represent ~70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe, the region’s car sales have likely followed the YoY recovery trend, while remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 14% YoY in October, vs. +12% YoY in September. However, the figure was still 15% below the (2019) pre-COVID level. Specifically, in Germany and Spain, car sales were down 23% and 17%, respectively, vs. the 2019 level, while registrations in France and Italy were 19% and 12% lower, respectively. However, sales in the UK were up 7% vs. the 2019 figures, marking the first positive dynamics compared with the pre-COVID year. Given that these five countries represent ~70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe, the region’s car sales have likely followed the YoY recovery trend, while remaining well below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
ArcelorMittal 3Q23 results - overall neutral
✏️ArcelorMittal's 3Q23 revenues were slightly below expectations (-5% vs. the consensus and -4% vs. us), amid lower shipments, which were offset by higher realised prices, than we had anticipated. EBITDA was broadly in-line with market forecasts
🏭The steelmaker expects Indian steel consumption to increase by more than the previous guidance of +6-8% YoY. The company has also lowered its forecasts for EU demand, which it now sees declining more than 0.5% YoY, given soft construction activity. Arcelor’s steel output in the EU dropped 7% YoY in 3Q23, marking the 8th consecutive quarter of declines
💰During 9mo23, the company repurchased 26.2mn shares as part of its buyback programme (up to 85mn shares) announced in May (~10.4% yield through the repurchase period until May 2025)
❗️At spot, we expect Arcelor’s 4Q23 EBITDA to be materially weaker QoQ on higher costs (spot coking coal prices are +34% vs. 3Q23 avg.)
#MT #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/MT_US/
✏️ArcelorMittal's 3Q23 revenues were slightly below expectations (-5% vs. the consensus and -4% vs. us), amid lower shipments, which were offset by higher realised prices, than we had anticipated. EBITDA was broadly in-line with market forecasts
🏭The steelmaker expects Indian steel consumption to increase by more than the previous guidance of +6-8% YoY. The company has also lowered its forecasts for EU demand, which it now sees declining more than 0.5% YoY, given soft construction activity. Arcelor’s steel output in the EU dropped 7% YoY in 3Q23, marking the 8th consecutive quarter of declines
💰During 9mo23, the company repurchased 26.2mn shares as part of its buyback programme (up to 85mn shares) announced in May (~10.4% yield through the repurchase period until May 2025)
❗️At spot, we expect Arcelor’s 4Q23 EBITDA to be materially weaker QoQ on higher costs (spot coking coal prices are +34% vs. 3Q23 avg.)
#MT #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/company/MT_US/
👍1
Morning Bites
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output expanded 4% YoY in September, following the 3% YoY growth in August. Meanwhile, local gold production was roughly flat YoY for a second month. Although the county’s supply recovered somewhat in September, we remind readers that two major SA players, Sibanye and Implats, have decided to cut jobs in response to ongoing declines in PGM prices (Pd and Pt prices have fallen 45% and 19% YTD, respectively). At the same time, demand for PGMs remains weak, amid inflationary pressures and growing appetite for EVs globally
To recap, SA accounts for ~70% of global platinum, 38% of palladium supply and 3% of global gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output expanded 4% YoY in September, following the 3% YoY growth in August. Meanwhile, local gold production was roughly flat YoY for a second month. Although the county’s supply recovered somewhat in September, we remind readers that two major SA players, Sibanye and Implats, have decided to cut jobs in response to ongoing declines in PGM prices (Pd and Pt prices have fallen 45% and 19% YTD, respectively). At the same time, demand for PGMs remains weak, amid inflationary pressures and growing appetite for EVs globally
To recap, SA accounts for ~70% of global platinum, 38% of palladium supply and 3% of global gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
❤1
Morning Bites (part 1)
🇵🇪Peru’s copper output grew 2% YoY in September, decelerating from the +7% YoY in August and +18% YoY in July, according to the INEI data. Overall, in 9mo23, local production was up ~15% YoY, which is in line with the Peruvian government's ambitious plan to boost domestic Cu output in 2023. Meanwhile, the joint production of Chile and Peru (~38% of global Cu supply) was up only 3% YoY in September. Despite the country's strong YTD production dynamics, the comparison base for rest of the year might be higher, as Anglo American launched the Quellaveco copper mine in September 2022. To recap, Peru accounts for ~11% of global Cu supply
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🇵🇪Peru’s copper output grew 2% YoY in September, decelerating from the +7% YoY in August and +18% YoY in July, according to the INEI data. Overall, in 9mo23, local production was up ~15% YoY, which is in line with the Peruvian government's ambitious plan to boost domestic Cu output in 2023. Meanwhile, the joint production of Chile and Peru (~38% of global Cu supply) was up only 3% YoY in September. Despite the country's strong YTD production dynamics, the comparison base for rest of the year might be higher, as Anglo American launched the Quellaveco copper mine in September 2022. To recap, Peru accounts for ~11% of global Cu supply
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 2)
💎Rough diamond prices recovered 5-10% at small auctions in early-November, for the first time since February 2023, as shortages of some stones start to emerge, Bloomberg reports. Noteworthy, polished diamond prices have plunged ~20% this year, triggering a ~35% fall in rough diamond prices at some auctions, with the steepest declines seen in late-summer and early-autumn, per Bloomberg. Overall, the news reflects the supply discipline measures recently taken by De Beers and Alrosa (which jointly accounted for ~60% of global rough diamonds output in 2022), following sluggish consumer demand and high mid-stream stockpiles. Although the indication is favourable for the sentiment, we keep our cautious view on the diamond sector globally and await the results for larger tenders, although they are unlikely to be released in the near future, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎Rough diamond prices recovered 5-10% at small auctions in early-November, for the first time since February 2023, as shortages of some stones start to emerge, Bloomberg reports. Noteworthy, polished diamond prices have plunged ~20% this year, triggering a ~35% fall in rough diamond prices at some auctions, with the steepest declines seen in late-summer and early-autumn, per Bloomberg. Overall, the news reflects the supply discipline measures recently taken by De Beers and Alrosa (which jointly accounted for ~60% of global rough diamonds output in 2022), following sluggish consumer demand and high mid-stream stockpiles. Although the indication is favourable for the sentiment, we keep our cautious view on the diamond sector globally and await the results for larger tenders, although they are unlikely to be released in the near future, we believe
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
🗓3Q23 reporting season highlights
📝 The weighted average 3Q23 EBITDA of global miners under our coverage was broadly in-line with market expectations (+1.2% vs. the consensus and +0.5% vs. us). Overall, these dynamics were driven by nascent costs normalisation in the M&M sector
📈 The strongest results were reported mainly by copper miners (e.g. First Quantum), as their cost efficiency recovered faster than we had expected
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
📝 The weighted average 3Q23 EBITDA of global miners under our coverage was broadly in-line with market expectations (+1.2% vs. the consensus and +0.5% vs. us). Overall, these dynamics were driven by nascent costs normalisation in the M&M sector
📈 The strongest results were reported mainly by copper miners (e.g. First Quantum), as their cost efficiency recovered faster than we had expected
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
🗓3Q23 reporting season - cost normalisation
📊On average, major miners reported materially weaker revenues than we had anticipated (-9% vs. us), amid various operational challenges
📉However, cash costs started to normalise, reversing from the abnormal increase in 1H23. Consequently, lower costs have offset the negative effects from revenue, resulting in company EBITDA that roughly met our estimates. As mentioned in the previous post, weighted average EBITDA came in 1.2% and 0.5% ahead of the consensus and us, respectively
📍Although high interest rates and the ongoing stagnation in global PMIs limit commodities performance, miners' cash costs (especially of gold producers) remain elevated, suggesting upside potential
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
📊On average, major miners reported materially weaker revenues than we had anticipated (-9% vs. us), amid various operational challenges
📉However, cash costs started to normalise, reversing from the abnormal increase in 1H23. Consequently, lower costs have offset the negative effects from revenue, resulting in company EBITDA that roughly met our estimates. As mentioned in the previous post, weighted average EBITDA came in 1.2% and 0.5% ahead of the consensus and us, respectively
📍Although high interest rates and the ongoing stagnation in global PMIs limit commodities performance, miners' cash costs (especially of gold producers) remain elevated, suggesting upside potential
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏦China’s aggregate financing jumped 103% YoY in October to CNY 1.85tn from the low base of 2022 (vs. +16% YoY in September) - slightly below the consensus estimates of CNY 1.90tn. Meanwhile, traditional bank loans also grew: they were up 20% YoY (vs. -7% YoY in September), coming 11% above the consensus. According to Reuters, Beijing is set to provide new fiscal stimulus to bolster the country’s economic recovery, as the headwinds persist (which is also indicated by China’s surprisingly low 49.5 PMIs in October). This, combined with the recently announced support measures aimed at infrastructure investment, might bolster local construction activity and, hence, China’s demand for industrial metals in 4Q23-2024
We remind readers that China represents 52% of global steel consumption, as well as 55% and 58% of world copper and aluminium demand, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🏦China’s aggregate financing jumped 103% YoY in October to CNY 1.85tn from the low base of 2022 (vs. +16% YoY in September) - slightly below the consensus estimates of CNY 1.90tn. Meanwhile, traditional bank loans also grew: they were up 20% YoY (vs. -7% YoY in September), coming 11% above the consensus. According to Reuters, Beijing is set to provide new fiscal stimulus to bolster the country’s economic recovery, as the headwinds persist (which is also indicated by China’s surprisingly low 49.5 PMIs in October). This, combined with the recently announced support measures aimed at infrastructure investment, might bolster local construction activity and, hence, China’s demand for industrial metals in 4Q23-2024
We remind readers that China represents 52% of global steel consumption, as well as 55% and 58% of world copper and aluminium demand, respectively
#global
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇵🇦Cobre Panama has reduced its processing operations, amid protests against the project, that have blocked the mine's Punta Rincon port access, according to a First Quantum press release. Specifically, the delivery of supplies for Cobre Panama's on-site power generation plant had been affected. As a result, one of the three processing trains was ramped down. This might be a supportive factor for copper prices, if the operational issues at the site persist, we believe. To recap, Cobre Panama accounts for ~2% of global copper output, while 60% of Punta Rincon's copper concentrate export is destined for China
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🇵🇦Cobre Panama has reduced its processing operations, amid protests against the project, that have blocked the mine's Punta Rincon port access, according to a First Quantum press release. Specifically, the delivery of supplies for Cobre Panama's on-site power generation plant had been affected. As a result, one of the three processing trains was ramped down. This might be a supportive factor for copper prices, if the operational issues at the site persist, we believe. To recap, Cobre Panama accounts for ~2% of global copper output, while 60% of Punta Rincon's copper concentrate export is destined for China
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper