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Global Metals&Mining Research from Glush&Team. No investment advice, just numbers & charts!
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Morning Bites

🪨BMA has partially suspended operations at the Peak Downs coal mine after an accident, where two trucks slid over on September 9, Argus reports. The asset has produced ~11mnt during the FY23 (ended in Jun-23) and accounted for ~4% of the global metallurgical coal seaborn market. Although no workers were injured, the market has reacted sharply to the news: Australian HCC prices jumped 11% WoW (+17% MoM) to USD 300/t last week. Overall, this was triggered by tight coking coal supply with limited spot availability (stockpiles across operations were already low), while demand from India remains strong (its steel production was up 9% YoY in 7mo23)

#coal 
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Coal
Morning Bites

📈China’s aluminium products output rose 3% YoY to 5.48mnt in August, after the -1% YoY in July. We note that, at current prices, >50% of global Al suppliers are operating at close to breakeven, on our numbers. As China accounted for ~58% of world primary Al demand in 2022, any material increases in consumption, were they to materialise, might substantially support the metal's price

🥉Chinese output of copper products was down 5% YoY in August to 1.87mnt, after the flat dynamics seen in July. In the meantime, the growth in domestic power generation equipment slowed to 21% YoY (from +53% YoY and +50% YoY in June and July, respectively). To recap, China represents ~55% of global Cu consumption

#aluminium #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)

🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations rose 20% YoY in August, after the 17% YoY growth in July, with the results meeting our preliminary estimates. However, the sales figures were still 16% below the pre-COVID, 2019 level (-23% in July). To recap, the EU+UK accounted for some 20% and 32% of the world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively, in 2022. Therefore, given the persistently weak PMI data in the region and ongoing inflationary pressures, we keep our cautious outlook on European car sales. In our view, this factor is set to continue pressuring PGM consumption, at least in the near future

#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (part 2)

🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 2% YoY in August, the same as the revised 2% YoY increase in July, the International Aluminium Institute reports. Meanwhile, China’s production continued its gradual growth, being up 2% YoY (+13% vs. the pre-Covid 2019 level). Ex-China production also showed growth, of 1% YoY (+3% vs. 2019). We remind readers that China might relaunch its previously suspended smelters and launch new capacities in FY23 (together representing up to 6% of global Al supply) once local electricity curbs are eased. However, this outlook seems overly bullish to us, especially given that >50% of global Al suppliers are currently loss-making or breakeven at spot, on our numbers, amid low Al prices

#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Aluminium
Morning Bites (part 3)

💍De Beers has published its 10th diamond insight report. Global supply shrank 1.6% to 121mnct, as output in DRC fell 27% YoY. The report was focused on the prospects for demand in China. Per the company’s estimates, China, HK & Macao jointly contributed 12% to global demand in 2022 (14% in 2021). Although consumer demand for jewellery in China has weakened in recent years following Covid-19, the report highlighted the potential growth, given the likely expansion of the middle class by 2030

💎Alrosa has suspended diamond supply for Sep-Oct at request of India. The measure took place amid weakening demand - in line with the practice of large miners of sacrificing volumes in favour of prices. We note that Alrosa accounted for 30% of the global diamond market in 2022, according to De Beers. Overall, this supports our view that the diamond market remains heavily stressed by growing inflation and adverse economic conditions globally

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
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Morning Bites

🥉Global copper production was up 1.8% YoY in 7mo23, the International Copper Study Group reports. In July, output rose 2.6% YoY (vs. the revised +1.7% YoY in June). Although global Cu mined supply benefitted from some start-ups and expansions over 7mo23, the dynamics were rather limited amid operational issues in Chile, China, Indonesia, Panama and the US, according to the report. Specifically, Indonesian output was down 4.5% YoY in 7mo23 as Grassberg's operations were temporarily disrupted by rainfall and landslides

#copper    
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
Morning Bites

💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales rose 5% YoY in August, reversing from the -4% YoY in July. However, according to Rapaport, Chinese customers remain cautious amid local economic uncertainties and expect prices to decline further, while mainland jewelers report high stocks and weak sales. This underpins our bearish view on the diamond sector, following adverse macroeconomic conditions globally and weak sales data in the US (53% of new polished diamond demand in 2022), in addition to downbeat signals from Alrosa. To recap, China represents ~12% of the world’s gem-set jewellery sales

#diamonds  
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites

🔗Global crude steel output inched up 2% YoY to 153mnt in August, following the 7% YoY growth in July, the World Steel Association reports. Meanwhile, China’s production rose 3% YoY, after the 12% YoY increase in July, while ex-China steel output was up 1% YoY. Specifically, EU supply dropped 4% YoY (vs. the 7% YoY decline in July), against the backdrop of the local energy crisis. US steel production inched up 1% YoY, while Russia’s output rose 9% YoY, after the 6% YoY increase in July. Although Chinese steel production remains continuously stronger YoY, we keep in mind the Beijing’s intention to keep steel production no higher than the 2022 levels. Overall, production restrictions in 2H23 in order to meet the supply cap would be a favourable factor for steel prices, we believe: China represents ~57% of world crude steel supply

#steel   
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 1)

🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production during mid-September was 2.13mnt, a 1.2% drop from the previous ten days (and -0.5% YoY). At the same time, local steel inventories inched down 0.3% (-10.8% YoY). Despite some decline in China’s output, the figure remains at elevated levels: it was still up 3.1% YoY in 8mo23 (vs. the Beijing’s plan to keep national steel production not higher 2022 levels), which might result in more restrictions in 2H23. In addition, steel prices might benefit from the new potential stimulus in the Chinese real estate segment: this would, if it materialised, bolster construction activity and thus the demand for industrial metals (steel, aluminium and copper) later this year

#steel   
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
1
Morning Bites (part 2)

💎India has voluntarily frozen rough diamond imports for two months, Rapaport reports, citing a letter written jointly by five leading representative organisations for the country’s diamond trade. Overall, the continuing deterioration in the global diamond sector pushed India’s midstream (~95% of the world's polished stones supply) to implement the strictest measures since Covid-19. The pause is to run from 15 October to 15 December. Alrosa, Russia's leading producer, has suspended sales for September-October amid the weak market environment. These decisions fit our thesis that demand remains sluggish and is unlikely to recover at least in the short-term, given the unfavorable macroeconomic conditions globally

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
 
📈Russia’s gold output declined 3.6% YoY in August, decelerating from the 12.3% YoY drop in July, per Rosstat data. Despite two consecutive months of falls, output was up 3.8% YoY on 8mo23 basis. Russia accounts for ~9% of the world's mined gold output. Overall, the gold miners' cost pressure remains tight, while the global macroeconomic environment is still unfavourable. Hence, we maintain our positive outlook on the yellow metal's future performance

#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites

🏗China’s preliminary excavator sales were down 25% YoY in September (domestic + export), following the 28% YoY decline in August, according to CME estimates. Specifically, domestic sales (a key indicator of construction activity) are set to be 38% weaker YoY, after the 42% YoY drop in August. Overall, in our view, the continuously weak excavator sales imply that China’s property sector is unlikely to recover in the short term, which might keep weighing on the demand for industrial metals. However, any new potential stimulus for the local economy might add support to construction activity and bolster the demand for industrial metals (e.g. steel, copper and aluminium) later in 2H23-2024. We remind our readers that China represents 52% of global steel consumption

#steel   
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 1)

💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales rose 57% YoY in August, following the 21% YoY increase in July, according to the government data. To recap, the robust recovery trend began after HK’s border with the Mainland reopened in early 2023 (in August, 4.1mn visitors arrived in HK vs. <60k a year ago). Sales have also outpaced pre-Covid 2019 levels by 31%. However, sentiment remains subdued in the key US and China diamond markets (~53% and ~12% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade, respectively). Hence, given the adverse economic conditions globally, as well as the warning signals from miners and the midstream, we reiterate our cautious view on the diamond sector

#diamonds  
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)

🇨🇱Chile’s copper production increased 3% YoY in August, after the 1% YoY rise in July, remaining near historical lows. We note that Chile's mining industry has been affected by a persistent drought and unfavourable structural effects (e.g. grade depletion). Furthermore, a possible strike at the world’s largest mine, Escondida (~5% of global Cu production in 2022), would likely pile additional pressure onto the country’s supply. To recap, Chile represents ~27% of world copper output and so if the adverse factors in its mining sector persist, they could at least partially offset the supply additions from new Cu projects (e.g. QB2 and Udokan), which are due to launch in 2023

#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
Morning Bites (part 1)

🌏Global manufacturing PMIs showed mixed dynamics in September. The Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI was reported at 43.4 (in line with estimates), vs. 43.5 in August. The US ISM manufacturing PMI rose for the third consecutive month, to 49.0 (from 47.6 in August)

🇨🇳The official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China rose to 50.2 in September (from 49.7 in August), ahead of the 50.0 estimates. However, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.6 in September (from 51.0), missing the estimates of 51.2

❗️Although some of the global PMIs recovered slightly in September, they mostly remained below 50.0, which might weigh further on the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, any new potential stimulus for the Chinese economy might bolster its construction activity and, hence, the demand for industrial metals (e.g. steel, copper and aluminium) later in 2H23-2024

#PMIs
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)

🇵🇪Peru’s copper output rose 7% YoY in August, decelerating from the +18% YoY in July and 22% YoY in June, INEI reports. Overall, in 8mo23, local production grew ~17% YoY, which was still above the Peruvian government's ambitious plan to boost domestic Cu output 15% YoY in 2023. Meanwhile, joint production of Chile and Peru (~38% of global Cu supply) was only up 4% YoY. Moreover, Anglo American launched the Quellaveco copper mine in September 2022, making the comparison base for rest of the year higher. Peru accounts for ~11% of global Cu supply

#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites

💎US jewellery sales shrank 3% YoY in August, vs. the revised 4% YoY drop in July, IDEX reports, citing the US Department of Commerce. This marked the 11th month of consecutive YoY drops since October 2022 (ex. January 2023, with the revised +2% YoY). Although the country’s inflation has slowed in recent months, consumer sentiment remains cautious, which is likely to keep weighing on diamond consumption, at least in the near future. Hence, we reiterate our view that the unfavourable macroeconomic environment globally and the ongoing decline in US sales (~53% of world gem-set jewellery trade) might further stress the demand for rough diamonds

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 1)

💎De Beers has reported sales of USD 200mn at its 8th cycle in 2023, 60% below the historical average and 61% weaker YoY (vs. -42% YoY at the 7th cycle in 2023). According to De Beers CEO Al Cook, the company has reduced the availability of its rough stones following high midstream stockpiles. The miner has also suspended its online auctions until the end of 2023, in addition to the option for sightholders to defer rough purchases (up to 25-50% of their allocations) at cycles 8-10, amid sluggish consumer demand

📌The supply discipline measures taken by De Beers and Alrosa (which jointly accounted for 59% of the global rough diamonds output in 2022) could help to eliminate excessive midstream inventories in the medium term, we believe. However, in the short term, we keep our cautious view on the diamond sector, amid the unfavourable macroeconomic environment globally and weak US sales (~53% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade)

#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites (part 2)

🏦 Global central banks purchased 77t of gold in August, vs. the revised +49t in July, marking the 3rd consecutive increase in holdings, the World Gold Council (WGC) reports. The main contributors were China (+29t), Uzbekistan (+9t), Poland and Turkey (+15t both). We note that there were no material volumes on the sellers' side, which also demonstrates strong gold demand from CBs. Overall, the adverse macroeconomic conditions globally and the growing cash costs of miners are likely to provide further support for the yellow metal's performance, we believe

#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold