Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production during early September was 2.16mnt, growth of 5.5% from the previous ten days (also a 2.9% increase YoY). Meanwhile, local steel inventories grew 7.3% over the same period (-7.4% YoY). Overall, in 7mo23, Chinese production was still +3% YoY, despite Beijing’s stated call to cap national steel output below the 2022 levels: we might see tighter supply later in 2H23, especially amid new measures aimed at mills in the top steelmaking provinces (e.g., Jiangsu, Shandong). To recap, China represents ~57% of global steel output
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production during early September was 2.16mnt, growth of 5.5% from the previous ten days (also a 2.9% increase YoY). Meanwhile, local steel inventories grew 7.3% over the same period (-7.4% YoY). Overall, in 7mo23, Chinese production was still +3% YoY, despite Beijing’s stated call to cap national steel output below the 2022 levels: we might see tighter supply later in 2H23, especially amid new measures aimed at mills in the top steelmaking provinces (e.g., Jiangsu, Shandong). To recap, China represents ~57% of global steel output
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
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Morning Bites (part 2)
🏗China’s excavator sales dropped 28% YoY in August (domestic + export), after the 30% YoY fall in July. The decline has roughly met CME estimates (-30% YoY). Of note, CCMA expects sales to drop some 14% YoY in FY23, while the YTD fall is 25%. Specifically, domestic excavator sales — a key indicator of construction activity — were down 38% YoY (vs. -45% YoY in July). Overall, continuously weak excavator sales underpin the ongoing stagnation in China’s real estate segment, which might keep weighing on demand for industrial metals. We remind our readers that China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, as well as 55% and 58% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🏗China’s excavator sales dropped 28% YoY in August (domestic + export), after the 30% YoY fall in July. The decline has roughly met CME estimates (-30% YoY). Of note, CCMA expects sales to drop some 14% YoY in FY23, while the YTD fall is 25%. Specifically, domestic excavator sales — a key indicator of construction activity — were down 38% YoY (vs. -45% YoY in July). Overall, continuously weak excavator sales underpin the ongoing stagnation in China’s real estate segment, which might keep weighing on demand for industrial metals. We remind our readers that China accounts for 52% of global steel consumption, as well as 55% and 58% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for August (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s crude steel output was up 3% YoY in August, decelerating from the 12% YoY growth in July. According to MySteel, only half of Chinese steel mills were operating at profit at the end of August (vs. ~66% in late July), which could result in further output cuts MoM, we believe. We note that China represents ~57% of global crude steel supply
🏢China's property sales dropped further, being down 24% YoY in August (also -24% YoY in July) and 50% below the levels of 2020. Floor space starts were down 23% YoY last month (-26% YoY in July), while personal mortgage loans also shrank 28% YoY (-24% YoY in July). At the same time, property completions grew 10% YoY in August. Despite the stagnant situation in China’s property sector, the mooted support policies, were they to materialise, might bolster construction activity later in 2H23
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
🔗China’s crude steel output was up 3% YoY in August, decelerating from the 12% YoY growth in July. According to MySteel, only half of Chinese steel mills were operating at profit at the end of August (vs. ~66% in late July), which could result in further output cuts MoM, we believe. We note that China represents ~57% of global crude steel supply
🏢China's property sales dropped further, being down 24% YoY in August (also -24% YoY in July) and 50% below the levels of 2020. Floor space starts were down 23% YoY last month (-26% YoY in July), while personal mortgage loans also shrank 28% YoY (-24% YoY in July). At the same time, property completions grew 10% YoY in August. Despite the stagnant situation in China’s property sector, the mooted support policies, were they to materialise, might bolster construction activity later in 2H23
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output fell 10% YoY in July, reversing from the 11% YoY growth in June. Meanwhile, the country’s gold production was up 13% YoY, decelerating from the 29% YoY spike in the previous month. Although persistent electricity shortages, logistical issues and inflationary pressures keep weighing on the country’s production, demand for PGMs remains weak against the backdrop of growing appetite for EVs globally. That is why PGM prices are at subdued levels (-60% and -30% since mid-2021 for Pd and Pt, respectively). To recap, SA accounts for ~70% of global platinum, 38% of palladium supply and 3% of global gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output fell 10% YoY in July, reversing from the 11% YoY growth in June. Meanwhile, the country’s gold production was up 13% YoY, decelerating from the 29% YoY spike in the previous month. Although persistent electricity shortages, logistical issues and inflationary pressures keep weighing on the country’s production, demand for PGMs remains weak against the backdrop of growing appetite for EVs globally. That is why PGM prices are at subdued levels (-60% and -30% since mid-2021 for Pd and Pt, respectively). To recap, SA accounts for ~70% of global platinum, 38% of palladium supply and 3% of global gold production
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites
💎India’s rough diamond net imports dropped 4% YoY in August, marking the ninth month of declines since December 2022 (only April showed growth, of 7% YoY). Meanwhile, India’s polished diamond net exports fell 38% YoY, after the 44% YoY decline in July, while synthetic rough diamond net imports suddenly rose 16% YoY (-16% YoY in July) after ten months of decline. The share of lab-grown net rough imports in diamond imports was 9% in August, vs. 10% in July. Overall, the weak demand data from India’s midstream cutters (~95% of world polished stones supply) and their inventory accumulation (see the chart above) underpin our cautious view on the global diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎India’s rough diamond net imports dropped 4% YoY in August, marking the ninth month of declines since December 2022 (only April showed growth, of 7% YoY). Meanwhile, India’s polished diamond net exports fell 38% YoY, after the 44% YoY decline in July, while synthetic rough diamond net imports suddenly rose 16% YoY (-16% YoY in July) after ten months of decline. The share of lab-grown net rough imports in diamond imports was 9% in August, vs. 10% in July. Overall, the weak demand data from India’s midstream cutters (~95% of world polished stones supply) and their inventory accumulation (see the chart above) underpin our cautious view on the global diamond market
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
🪨BMA has partially suspended operations at the Peak Downs coal mine after an accident, where two trucks slid over on September 9, Argus reports. The asset has produced ~11mnt during the FY23 (ended in Jun-23) and accounted for ~4% of the global metallurgical coal seaborn market. Although no workers were injured, the market has reacted sharply to the news: Australian HCC prices jumped 11% WoW (+17% MoM) to USD 300/t last week. Overall, this was triggered by tight coking coal supply with limited spot availability (stockpiles across operations were already low), while demand from India remains strong (its steel production was up 9% YoY in 7mo23)
#coal
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Coal
🪨BMA has partially suspended operations at the Peak Downs coal mine after an accident, where two trucks slid over on September 9, Argus reports. The asset has produced ~11mnt during the FY23 (ended in Jun-23) and accounted for ~4% of the global metallurgical coal seaborn market. Although no workers were injured, the market has reacted sharply to the news: Australian HCC prices jumped 11% WoW (+17% MoM) to USD 300/t last week. Overall, this was triggered by tight coking coal supply with limited spot availability (stockpiles across operations were already low), while demand from India remains strong (its steel production was up 9% YoY in 7mo23)
#coal
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Coal
Morning Bites
📈China’s aluminium products output rose 3% YoY to 5.48mnt in August, after the -1% YoY in July. We note that, at current prices, >50% of global Al suppliers are operating at close to breakeven, on our numbers. As China accounted for ~58% of world primary Al demand in 2022, any material increases in consumption, were they to materialise, might substantially support the metal's price
🥉Chinese output of copper products was down 5% YoY in August to 1.87mnt, after the flat dynamics seen in July. In the meantime, the growth in domestic power generation equipment slowed to 21% YoY (from +53% YoY and +50% YoY in June and July, respectively). To recap, China represents ~55% of global Cu consumption
#aluminium #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
📈China’s aluminium products output rose 3% YoY to 5.48mnt in August, after the -1% YoY in July. We note that, at current prices, >50% of global Al suppliers are operating at close to breakeven, on our numbers. As China accounted for ~58% of world primary Al demand in 2022, any material increases in consumption, were they to materialise, might substantially support the metal's price
🥉Chinese output of copper products was down 5% YoY in August to 1.87mnt, after the flat dynamics seen in July. In the meantime, the growth in domestic power generation equipment slowed to 21% YoY (from +53% YoY and +50% YoY in June and July, respectively). To recap, China represents ~55% of global Cu consumption
#aluminium #copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations rose 20% YoY in August, after the 17% YoY growth in July, with the results meeting our preliminary estimates. However, the sales figures were still 16% below the pre-COVID, 2019 level (-23% in July). To recap, the EU+UK accounted for some 20% and 32% of the world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively, in 2022. Therefore, given the persistently weak PMI data in the region and ongoing inflationary pressures, we keep our cautious outlook on European car sales. In our view, this factor is set to continue pressuring PGM consumption, at least in the near future
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
🚘EU + UK passenger car registrations rose 20% YoY in August, after the 17% YoY growth in July, with the results meeting our preliminary estimates. However, the sales figures were still 16% below the pre-COVID, 2019 level (-23% in July). To recap, the EU+UK accounted for some 20% and 32% of the world autocatalyst Pd and Pt demand, respectively, in 2022. Therefore, given the persistently weak PMI data in the region and ongoing inflationary pressures, we keep our cautious outlook on European car sales. In our view, this factor is set to continue pressuring PGM consumption, at least in the near future
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (part 2)
🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 2% YoY in August, the same as the revised 2% YoY increase in July, the International Aluminium Institute reports. Meanwhile, China’s production continued its gradual growth, being up 2% YoY (+13% vs. the pre-Covid 2019 level). Ex-China production also showed growth, of 1% YoY (+3% vs. 2019). We remind readers that China might relaunch its previously suspended smelters and launch new capacities in FY23 (together representing up to 6% of global Al supply) once local electricity curbs are eased. However, this outlook seems overly bullish to us, especially given that >50% of global Al suppliers are currently loss-making or breakeven at spot, on our numbers, amid low Al prices
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Aluminium
🏭Global primary aluminium output rose 2% YoY in August, the same as the revised 2% YoY increase in July, the International Aluminium Institute reports. Meanwhile, China’s production continued its gradual growth, being up 2% YoY (+13% vs. the pre-Covid 2019 level). Ex-China production also showed growth, of 1% YoY (+3% vs. 2019). We remind readers that China might relaunch its previously suspended smelters and launch new capacities in FY23 (together representing up to 6% of global Al supply) once local electricity curbs are eased. However, this outlook seems overly bullish to us, especially given that >50% of global Al suppliers are currently loss-making or breakeven at spot, on our numbers, amid low Al prices
#aluminium
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Aluminium
Morning Bites (part 3)
💍De Beers has published its 10th diamond insight report. Global supply shrank 1.6% to 121mnct, as output in DRC fell 27% YoY. The report was focused on the prospects for demand in China. Per the company’s estimates, China, HK & Macao jointly contributed 12% to global demand in 2022 (14% in 2021). Although consumer demand for jewellery in China has weakened in recent years following Covid-19, the report highlighted the potential growth, given the likely expansion of the middle class by 2030
💎Alrosa has suspended diamond supply for Sep-Oct at request of India. The measure took place amid weakening demand - in line with the practice of large miners of sacrificing volumes in favour of prices. We note that Alrosa accounted for 30% of the global diamond market in 2022, according to De Beers. Overall, this supports our view that the diamond market remains heavily stressed by growing inflation and adverse economic conditions globally
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍De Beers has published its 10th diamond insight report. Global supply shrank 1.6% to 121mnct, as output in DRC fell 27% YoY. The report was focused on the prospects for demand in China. Per the company’s estimates, China, HK & Macao jointly contributed 12% to global demand in 2022 (14% in 2021). Although consumer demand for jewellery in China has weakened in recent years following Covid-19, the report highlighted the potential growth, given the likely expansion of the middle class by 2030
💎Alrosa has suspended diamond supply for Sep-Oct at request of India. The measure took place amid weakening demand - in line with the practice of large miners of sacrificing volumes in favour of prices. We note that Alrosa accounted for 30% of the global diamond market in 2022, according to De Beers. Overall, this supports our view that the diamond market remains heavily stressed by growing inflation and adverse economic conditions globally
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
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Morning Bites
🥉Global copper production was up 1.8% YoY in 7mo23, the International Copper Study Group reports. In July, output rose 2.6% YoY (vs. the revised +1.7% YoY in June). Although global Cu mined supply benefitted from some start-ups and expansions over 7mo23, the dynamics were rather limited amid operational issues in Chile, China, Indonesia, Panama and the US, according to the report. Specifically, Indonesian output was down 4.5% YoY in 7mo23 as Grassberg's operations were temporarily disrupted by rainfall and landslides
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
🥉Global copper production was up 1.8% YoY in 7mo23, the International Copper Study Group reports. In July, output rose 2.6% YoY (vs. the revised +1.7% YoY in June). Although global Cu mined supply benefitted from some start-ups and expansions over 7mo23, the dynamics were rather limited amid operational issues in Chile, China, Indonesia, Panama and the US, according to the report. Specifically, Indonesian output was down 4.5% YoY in 7mo23 as Grassberg's operations were temporarily disrupted by rainfall and landslides
#copper
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Copper
Morning Bites
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales rose 5% YoY in August, reversing from the -4% YoY in July. However, according to Rapaport, Chinese customers remain cautious amid local economic uncertainties and expect prices to decline further, while mainland jewelers report high stocks and weak sales. This underpins our bearish view on the diamond sector, following adverse macroeconomic conditions globally and weak sales data in the US (53% of new polished diamond demand in 2022), in addition to downbeat signals from Alrosa. To recap, China represents ~12% of the world’s gem-set jewellery sales
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍China’s jewellery and watch retail sales rose 5% YoY in August, reversing from the -4% YoY in July. However, according to Rapaport, Chinese customers remain cautious amid local economic uncertainties and expect prices to decline further, while mainland jewelers report high stocks and weak sales. This underpins our bearish view on the diamond sector, following adverse macroeconomic conditions globally and weak sales data in the US (53% of new polished diamond demand in 2022), in addition to downbeat signals from Alrosa. To recap, China represents ~12% of the world’s gem-set jewellery sales
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
🔗Global crude steel output inched up 2% YoY to 153mnt in August, following the 7% YoY growth in July, the World Steel Association reports. Meanwhile, China’s production rose 3% YoY, after the 12% YoY increase in July, while ex-China steel output was up 1% YoY. Specifically, EU supply dropped 4% YoY (vs. the 7% YoY decline in July), against the backdrop of the local energy crisis. US steel production inched up 1% YoY, while Russia’s output rose 9% YoY, after the 6% YoY increase in July. Although Chinese steel production remains continuously stronger YoY, we keep in mind the Beijing’s intention to keep steel production no higher than the 2022 levels. Overall, production restrictions in 2H23 in order to meet the supply cap would be a favourable factor for steel prices, we believe: China represents ~57% of world crude steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
🔗Global crude steel output inched up 2% YoY to 153mnt in August, following the 7% YoY growth in July, the World Steel Association reports. Meanwhile, China’s production rose 3% YoY, after the 12% YoY increase in July, while ex-China steel output was up 1% YoY. Specifically, EU supply dropped 4% YoY (vs. the 7% YoY decline in July), against the backdrop of the local energy crisis. US steel production inched up 1% YoY, while Russia’s output rose 9% YoY, after the 6% YoY increase in July. Although Chinese steel production remains continuously stronger YoY, we keep in mind the Beijing’s intention to keep steel production no higher than the 2022 levels. Overall, production restrictions in 2H23 in order to meet the supply cap would be a favourable factor for steel prices, we believe: China represents ~57% of world crude steel supply
#steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production during mid-September was 2.13mnt, a 1.2% drop from the previous ten days (and -0.5% YoY). At the same time, local steel inventories inched down 0.3% (-10.8% YoY). Despite some decline in China’s output, the figure remains at elevated levels: it was still up 3.1% YoY in 8mo23 (vs. the Beijing’s plan to keep national steel production not higher 2022 levels), which might result in more restrictions in 2H23. In addition, steel prices might benefit from the new potential stimulus in the Chinese real estate segment: this would, if it materialised, bolster construction activity and thus the demand for industrial metals (steel, aluminium and copper) later this year
#steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production during mid-September was 2.13mnt, a 1.2% drop from the previous ten days (and -0.5% YoY). At the same time, local steel inventories inched down 0.3% (-10.8% YoY). Despite some decline in China’s output, the figure remains at elevated levels: it was still up 3.1% YoY in 8mo23 (vs. the Beijing’s plan to keep national steel production not higher 2022 levels), which might result in more restrictions in 2H23. In addition, steel prices might benefit from the new potential stimulus in the Chinese real estate segment: this would, if it materialised, bolster construction activity and thus the demand for industrial metals (steel, aluminium and copper) later this year
#steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
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Morning Bites (part 2)
💎India has voluntarily frozen rough diamond imports for two months, Rapaport reports, citing a letter written jointly by five leading representative organisations for the country’s diamond trade. Overall, the continuing deterioration in the global diamond sector pushed India’s midstream (~95% of the world's polished stones supply) to implement the strictest measures since Covid-19. The pause is to run from 15 October to 15 December. Alrosa, Russia's leading producer, has suspended sales for September-October amid the weak market environment. These decisions fit our thesis that demand remains sluggish and is unlikely to recover at least in the short-term, given the unfavorable macroeconomic conditions globally
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💎India has voluntarily frozen rough diamond imports for two months, Rapaport reports, citing a letter written jointly by five leading representative organisations for the country’s diamond trade. Overall, the continuing deterioration in the global diamond sector pushed India’s midstream (~95% of the world's polished stones supply) to implement the strictest measures since Covid-19. The pause is to run from 15 October to 15 December. Alrosa, Russia's leading producer, has suspended sales for September-October amid the weak market environment. These decisions fit our thesis that demand remains sluggish and is unlikely to recover at least in the short-term, given the unfavorable macroeconomic conditions globally
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
Morning Bites
📈Russia’s gold output declined 3.6% YoY in August, decelerating from the 12.3% YoY drop in July, per Rosstat data. Despite two consecutive months of falls, output was up 3.8% YoY on 8mo23 basis. Russia accounts for ~9% of the world's mined gold output. Overall, the gold miners' cost pressure remains tight, while the global macroeconomic environment is still unfavourable. Hence, we maintain our positive outlook on the yellow metal's future performance
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
📈Russia’s gold output declined 3.6% YoY in August, decelerating from the 12.3% YoY drop in July, per Rosstat data. Despite two consecutive months of falls, output was up 3.8% YoY on 8mo23 basis. Russia accounts for ~9% of the world's mined gold output. Overall, the gold miners' cost pressure remains tight, while the global macroeconomic environment is still unfavourable. Hence, we maintain our positive outlook on the yellow metal's future performance
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Morning Bites
🏗China’s preliminary excavator sales were down 25% YoY in September (domestic + export), following the 28% YoY decline in August, according to CME estimates. Specifically, domestic sales (a key indicator of construction activity) are set to be 38% weaker YoY, after the 42% YoY drop in August. Overall, in our view, the continuously weak excavator sales imply that China’s property sector is unlikely to recover in the short term, which might keep weighing on the demand for industrial metals. However, any new potential stimulus for the local economy might add support to construction activity and bolster the demand for industrial metals (e.g. steel, copper and aluminium) later in 2H23-2024. We remind our readers that China represents 52% of global steel consumption
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🏗China’s preliminary excavator sales were down 25% YoY in September (domestic + export), following the 28% YoY decline in August, according to CME estimates. Specifically, domestic sales (a key indicator of construction activity) are set to be 38% weaker YoY, after the 42% YoY drop in August. Overall, in our view, the continuously weak excavator sales imply that China’s property sector is unlikely to recover in the short term, which might keep weighing on the demand for industrial metals. However, any new potential stimulus for the local economy might add support to construction activity and bolster the demand for industrial metals (e.g. steel, copper and aluminium) later in 2H23-2024. We remind our readers that China represents 52% of global steel consumption
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales rose 57% YoY in August, following the 21% YoY increase in July, according to the government data. To recap, the robust recovery trend began after HK’s border with the Mainland reopened in early 2023 (in August, 4.1mn visitors arrived in HK vs. <60k a year ago). Sales have also outpaced pre-Covid 2019 levels by 31%. However, sentiment remains subdued in the key US and China diamond markets (~53% and ~12% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade, respectively). Hence, given the adverse economic conditions globally, as well as the warning signals from miners and the midstream, we reiterate our cautious view on the diamond sector
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds
💍Hong Kong jewellery and watch sales rose 57% YoY in August, following the 21% YoY increase in July, according to the government data. To recap, the robust recovery trend began after HK’s border with the Mainland reopened in early 2023 (in August, 4.1mn visitors arrived in HK vs. <60k a year ago). Sales have also outpaced pre-Covid 2019 levels by 31%. However, sentiment remains subdued in the key US and China diamond markets (~53% and ~12% of the world's gem-set jewellery trade, respectively). Hence, given the adverse economic conditions globally, as well as the warning signals from miners and the midstream, we reiterate our cautious view on the diamond sector
#diamonds
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Diamonds