🗞Today, China published its preliminary import/export statistics for July (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗China’s net finished steel exports rose 13% YoY in July, following the 2% YoY increase in June. Despite the Chinese government's stated intention to keep national steel output below the 2022 level, it was up ~2% YoY in 7mo23, according to CISA data. Meanwhile, Beijing is aiming to bolster the country’s economy via new support measures, mainly for the real estate segment: this is likely to support the demand for industrial metals, we believe
🪨China’s coal imports jumped 67% YoY in July (vs. +110% YoY in June). Imports remained at elevated levels last month after overseas purchases almost doubled in 1H23: utilities continued to import cheaper supplies, amid peak summer power demand, Reuters reports. We note that local power loads have hit new peaks since mid-June, as China experienced periods of abnormally high temperatures
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🔗China’s net finished steel exports rose 13% YoY in July, following the 2% YoY increase in June. Despite the Chinese government's stated intention to keep national steel output below the 2022 level, it was up ~2% YoY in 7mo23, according to CISA data. Meanwhile, Beijing is aiming to bolster the country’s economy via new support measures, mainly for the real estate segment: this is likely to support the demand for industrial metals, we believe
🪨China’s coal imports jumped 67% YoY in July (vs. +110% YoY in June). Imports remained at elevated levels last month after overseas purchases almost doubled in 1H23: utilities continued to import cheaper supplies, amid peak summer power demand, Reuters reports. We note that local power loads have hit new peaks since mid-June, as China experienced periods of abnormally high temperatures
#coal #steel
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 18% YoY in July, the same as in June. However, the figure was still 23% below the (2019) pre-COVID level. Specifically, in Germany and Spain, car sales declined 27% and 30%, respectively, vs. the 2019 level, while sales in France were 25% lower. At the same time, sales in the UK and Italy were 8% and 22% below the 2019 figures, respectively. Given these five countries represent ~70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe, the region’s car sales have likely continued to show robust YoY recovery, while remaining below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
🚘New car registrations in France, the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany rose 18% YoY in July, the same as in June. However, the figure was still 23% below the (2019) pre-COVID level. Specifically, in Germany and Spain, car sales declined 27% and 30%, respectively, vs. the 2019 level, while sales in France were 25% lower. At the same time, sales in the UK and Italy were 8% and 22% below the 2019 figures, respectively. Given these five countries represent ~70% of new vehicle registrations in Europe, the region’s car sales have likely continued to show robust YoY recovery, while remaining below their pre-pandemic levels
#cars
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/PGM
Morning Bites (part 3)
🏦China is continuing to accumulate gold reserves, purchasing 23t (~6% of annualised physical gold demand in 2022) in July, the 9th consecutive month of additions, Bloomberg reports. Hence, PBoC gold holdings now stand at 2,137t, with ~188t added since November 2022. Of note, in annualised terms, the county’s November 2022 - July 2023 purchases accounted for ~5% of world physical gold demand in 2022. Overall, given adverse macroeconomic conditions globally, as well as miners’ rising cash costs and persistent inflationary pressures, we maintain our bullish view on gold performance
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
🏦China is continuing to accumulate gold reserves, purchasing 23t (~6% of annualised physical gold demand in 2022) in July, the 9th consecutive month of additions, Bloomberg reports. Hence, PBoC gold holdings now stand at 2,137t, with ~188t added since November 2022. Of note, in annualised terms, the county’s November 2022 - July 2023 purchases accounted for ~5% of world physical gold demand in 2022. Overall, given adverse macroeconomic conditions globally, as well as miners’ rising cash costs and persistent inflationary pressures, we maintain our bullish view on gold performance
#gold
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Gold
Glencore 1H23 results - firmly below expectations
📝Glencore's 1H23 revenues underperformed both the consensus and us (by 16% and 19%, respectively), due to lower realised coal prices and proceeds from marketing. Meanwhile, EBITDA came in 18% below forecasts, also affected by lower Ni/Cu sales, as well as the ongoing costs pressure
📈Glencore anticipates cash costs to normalize. Specifically, in copper, they rose 2.7x YoY to USD 1.45/lb in 1H23, while the FY23 cost is expected at USD 1.32/lb (although that would still be +65% YoY)
📍The company reiterated its FY23 guidance: copper output is set to shrink ~2% YoY, while zinc and coal are to stay unchanged
💰The group has announced a dividend of USD 0.08/sh (~1.3% DY), as well as a new USD 1.2bn semi-annual buyback programme (~1.6% yield until February 2024)
📌At spot, we expect Glencore’s EBITDA to show a modest HoH improvement in 2H23, as the costs normalisation is to offset lower commodity prices
#GLEN #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/GLEN_LN/
📝Glencore's 1H23 revenues underperformed both the consensus and us (by 16% and 19%, respectively), due to lower realised coal prices and proceeds from marketing. Meanwhile, EBITDA came in 18% below forecasts, also affected by lower Ni/Cu sales, as well as the ongoing costs pressure
📈Glencore anticipates cash costs to normalize. Specifically, in copper, they rose 2.7x YoY to USD 1.45/lb in 1H23, while the FY23 cost is expected at USD 1.32/lb (although that would still be +65% YoY)
📍The company reiterated its FY23 guidance: copper output is set to shrink ~2% YoY, while zinc and coal are to stay unchanged
💰The group has announced a dividend of USD 0.08/sh (~1.3% DY), as well as a new USD 1.2bn semi-annual buyback programme (~1.6% yield until February 2024)
📌At spot, we expect Glencore’s EBITDA to show a modest HoH improvement in 2H23, as the costs normalisation is to offset lower commodity prices
#GLEN #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/GLEN_LN/
Barrick 2Q23 results - EBITDA meets consensus estimates
📝Barrick's 2Q23 revenues were below market estimates (-6% vs. the consensus and -3% vs. us). Meanwhile, EBITDA slightly beat forecasts (+1% vs. consensus, and +8% vs. us), mostly driven by lower expenses at major Carlin mine than we had expected
📉In 2Q23, despite the company's expectations of cash cost normalisation, AISC jumped 12% YoY to USD 1,355/oz (-2% QoQ). However, Barrick still sees total AISC at USD 1,170 - 1,250/oz (-1% YoY) in FY23
📈The gold miner reiterated its FY23 production guidance, which implies output growth of ~6% YoY
💰The BoD has declared a quarterly dividend of USD 0.10/sh., which offers a 0.6% DY — in line with the dividend policy
📌At spot, we expect Barrick's 3Q23 EBITDA to materially improve QoQ, amid the guided production ramp-up and cost normalisation
#GOLD #gold
https://metals-wire.com/company/GOLD_US/
📝Barrick's 2Q23 revenues were below market estimates (-6% vs. the consensus and -3% vs. us). Meanwhile, EBITDA slightly beat forecasts (+1% vs. consensus, and +8% vs. us), mostly driven by lower expenses at major Carlin mine than we had expected
📉In 2Q23, despite the company's expectations of cash cost normalisation, AISC jumped 12% YoY to USD 1,355/oz (-2% QoQ). However, Barrick still sees total AISC at USD 1,170 - 1,250/oz (-1% YoY) in FY23
📈The gold miner reiterated its FY23 production guidance, which implies output growth of ~6% YoY
💰The BoD has declared a quarterly dividend of USD 0.10/sh., which offers a 0.6% DY — in line with the dividend policy
📌At spot, we expect Barrick's 3Q23 EBITDA to materially improve QoQ, amid the guided production ramp-up and cost normalisation
#GOLD #gold
https://metals-wire.com/company/GOLD_US/
Morning Bites (part 1)
📉Gold-backed ETFs saw outflows of 34t in July, down from the 56t net sales in June, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). Meanwhile, on the YTD basis, outflows stood at 84t. According to the WGC, last month's outflows were concentrated in Europe, which lost 18t in July (-87t YTD), while North American ETFs have sold 16t (+4t YTD). In our view, world ETF sales remain the foremost factor pressuring the yellow metal’s performance. However, we maintain our bullish view on gold, amid continuous inflationary pressures globally, as well as miners' rising cash costs
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
📉Gold-backed ETFs saw outflows of 34t in July, down from the 56t net sales in June, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). Meanwhile, on the YTD basis, outflows stood at 84t. According to the WGC, last month's outflows were concentrated in Europe, which lost 18t in July (-87t YTD), while North American ETFs have sold 16t (+4t YTD). In our view, world ETF sales remain the foremost factor pressuring the yellow metal’s performance. However, we maintain our bullish view on gold, amid continuous inflationary pressures globally, as well as miners' rising cash costs
#ETF #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇵🇪Peru’s copper output jumped 22% YoY in June, after the 36% YoY increase in May, MINEI reports. Overall, 1H23 production grew 18% YoY, which was above even the government's ambitious plan to boost domestic Cu output 15% YoY in 2023. However, the ministry noted that Anglo American’s new Quellaveco copper mine began commercial production in September 2022, meaning the comparison base for late-2023 will be higher. Meanwhile, combined production in Chile and Peru was up 6% YoY in June (vs. -1% YoY in May). Despite the ongoing growth in Peruvian output, global Cu output recovery remains sluggish, having grown <2% YoY in 5mo23, amid production issues in various mining hubs, particularly in Chile (~27% of world Cu output)
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
🇵🇪Peru’s copper output jumped 22% YoY in June, after the 36% YoY increase in May, MINEI reports. Overall, 1H23 production grew 18% YoY, which was above even the government's ambitious plan to boost domestic Cu output 15% YoY in 2023. However, the ministry noted that Anglo American’s new Quellaveco copper mine began commercial production in September 2022, meaning the comparison base for late-2023 will be higher. Meanwhile, combined production in Chile and Peru was up 6% YoY in June (vs. -1% YoY in May). Despite the ongoing growth in Peruvian output, global Cu output recovery remains sluggish, having grown <2% YoY in 5mo23, amid production issues in various mining hubs, particularly in Chile (~27% of world Cu output)
#copper
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Copper
Morning Bites
🪨 Indian coking coal imports surged 31% YoY to 5.38mnt in July, CoalMint reports. Meanwhile, Coal India (a large, state-run miner) has reported 13% YoY growth in its coking coal output, to 4.41mnt in July 2023. We note that, during the twelve months to end-July 2023, India’s coking coal imports were still 4% lower than in FY2021-22 (but +8% vs. FY2020-21). Despite the sustainable coal demand, the increasing domestic production (as well as forthcoming rainy season) might cool the growth of imports and weigh somewhat on the prices of the raw materials for making steel. To recap, India accounted for ~24% of global seaborne coking coal imports in 2022
#coal
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Coal
🪨 Indian coking coal imports surged 31% YoY to 5.38mnt in July, CoalMint reports. Meanwhile, Coal India (a large, state-run miner) has reported 13% YoY growth in its coking coal output, to 4.41mnt in July 2023. We note that, during the twelve months to end-July 2023, India’s coking coal imports were still 4% lower than in FY2021-22 (but +8% vs. FY2020-21). Despite the sustainable coal demand, the increasing domestic production (as well as forthcoming rainy season) might cool the growth of imports and weigh somewhat on the prices of the raw materials for making steel. To recap, India accounted for ~24% of global seaborne coking coal imports in 2022
#coal
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Coal
👏1
Antofagasta 1H23 results - EBITDA misses forecasts
📝 Antofagasta's 1H23 revenues were in line with the consensus, but slightly weaker than our expectations (-2%) due to lower realised Cu prices. The negative effect of this on EBITDA was amplified by stronger pressure on cash costs than we had forecast. EBITDA therefore came below both the consensus and us (-6% and -8%, respectively)
⛏The miner has lowered its FY23 copper production guidance to 640-670kt from the previous 670-710kt (-5%), due to water availability issues at its Los Pelambres asset
💰The company's BoD has recommended a dividend of USD 0.117/sh, which implies a DY of some 0.6% — in accordance with company practice
📌At spot, we expect Antofagasta's EBITDA to materially improve HoH, as production at its major Los Pelambres mine is to ramp-up through the 2H23, in our view
#ANTO #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/ANTO_LN/
📝 Antofagasta's 1H23 revenues were in line with the consensus, but slightly weaker than our expectations (-2%) due to lower realised Cu prices. The negative effect of this on EBITDA was amplified by stronger pressure on cash costs than we had forecast. EBITDA therefore came below both the consensus and us (-6% and -8%, respectively)
⛏The miner has lowered its FY23 copper production guidance to 640-670kt from the previous 670-710kt (-5%), due to water availability issues at its Los Pelambres asset
💰The company's BoD has recommended a dividend of USD 0.117/sh, which implies a DY of some 0.6% — in accordance with company practice
📌At spot, we expect Antofagasta's EBITDA to materially improve HoH, as production at its major Los Pelambres mine is to ramp-up through the 2H23, in our view
#ANTO #copper
https://metals-wire.com/company/ANTO_LN/
Morning Bites (part 1)
🏗China’s excavator sales dropped 30% YoY in July (domestic + export), after the 24% YoY fall in June. The decline was slightly more dramatic than CME had estimated (-26% YoY). Specifically, domestic excavator sales — a key indicator of construction activity — were down 45% YoY, in line with June's dynamic. Continuously weak excavator sales indicate ongoing stagnation in China’s real estate segment, which might keep weighing on demand for industrial metals. To recap, China represents 52% of global steel consumption, as well as 55% and 58% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🏗China’s excavator sales dropped 30% YoY in July (domestic + export), after the 24% YoY fall in June. The decline was slightly more dramatic than CME had estimated (-26% YoY). Specifically, domestic excavator sales — a key indicator of construction activity — were down 45% YoY, in line with June's dynamic. Continuously weak excavator sales indicate ongoing stagnation in China’s real estate segment, which might keep weighing on demand for industrial metals. To recap, China represents 52% of global steel consumption, as well as 55% and 58% of world Cu and Al demand, respectively
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 2)
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output rose 11% YoY in June, reversing from the 12 consecutive months of YoY declines (ex. the +3% YoY in February 2023). Meanwhile, the country’s gold production jumped 29% YoY, vs. the revised 28% YoY growth in May. To recap, SA accounts for ~70% of global platinum, 38% of palladium supply and 3% of global gold production. Although the local PGM/gold output showed a sharp recovery, this could be a one-off, bolstered by the likely low comparison base, as the country's mining activity is still being affected by the ongoing energy crisis and logistical issues. Hence, we do not expect this to have a material impact on the sentiment on these metals
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🇿🇦South Africa’s PGM mining output rose 11% YoY in June, reversing from the 12 consecutive months of YoY declines (ex. the +3% YoY in February 2023). Meanwhile, the country’s gold production jumped 29% YoY, vs. the revised 28% YoY growth in May. To recap, SA accounts for ~70% of global platinum, 38% of palladium supply and 3% of global gold production. Although the local PGM/gold output showed a sharp recovery, this could be a one-off, bolstered by the likely low comparison base, as the country's mining activity is still being affected by the ongoing energy crisis and logistical issues. Hence, we do not expect this to have a material impact on the sentiment on these metals
#PGMs #gold
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Newcrest 1H23 results - EBITDA beats consensus
📝Newcrest's CY 1H23 revenues were broadly in line with consensus, but slightly below us (+1% and -4%, respectively). Although EBITDA came significantly above the consensus, it was in line with our estimates
📍The miner has announced its FY24 guidance (ending June 2024), implying gold production broadly flat YoY at 2.0-2.3mnoz
⌛To recap, Newmont is to acquire 100% of the issued shares in Newcrest. NCM’s shareholders are to receive 0.4 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share and a special dividend of up to USD 1.10/share paid by Newcrest, which is already included in the NCM valuation. The transaction is expected to close in 4Q23
💰Meanwhile, the BoD has declared a dividend of USD 0.20/share, which implies a 1.2% DY and exceeds the minimum payout envisaged by the policy
📌At spot, we expect Newcrest's CY 2H23F EBITDA to show a moderate improvement HoH, as the company guides for some ramp-up in production
#NCM #gold
https://metals-wire.com/company/NCM_AU/
📝Newcrest's CY 1H23 revenues were broadly in line with consensus, but slightly below us (+1% and -4%, respectively). Although EBITDA came significantly above the consensus, it was in line with our estimates
📍The miner has announced its FY24 guidance (ending June 2024), implying gold production broadly flat YoY at 2.0-2.3mnoz
⌛To recap, Newmont is to acquire 100% of the issued shares in Newcrest. NCM’s shareholders are to receive 0.4 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share and a special dividend of up to USD 1.10/share paid by Newcrest, which is already included in the NCM valuation. The transaction is expected to close in 4Q23
💰Meanwhile, the BoD has declared a dividend of USD 0.20/share, which implies a 1.2% DY and exceeds the minimum payout envisaged by the policy
📌At spot, we expect Newcrest's CY 2H23F EBITDA to show a moderate improvement HoH, as the company guides for some ramp-up in production
#NCM #gold
https://metals-wire.com/company/NCM_AU/
Week ahead data releases in M&M
As the reporting season draws to a close, only SQM (among major miners under our coverage) is scheduled to report earnings this week. We expect slightly stronger results than the consensus
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
As the reporting season draws to a close, only SQM (among major miners under our coverage) is scheduled to report earnings this week. We expect slightly stronger results than the consensus
#reporting_season
https://metals-wire.com:3000/events
Morning Bites
🏦China’s aggregate financing declined 32% YoY in July to CNY 0.53tn, the lowest point since July 2014 (vs. -19% YoY in June), and missed the consensus of CNY 1.10tn. At the same time, traditional bank loans fell 49% YoY (+9% YoY in June), 57% below the consensus estimates. According to Trading Economics, although July is usually a weak month for financing activities, these dynamics underpin the slow economic recovery in China, with banks not in a rush to meet their lending targets in early 3Q23. In our view, this might keep weighing on domestic construction activity, and hence, China’s demand for industrial metals
#global
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🏦China’s aggregate financing declined 32% YoY in July to CNY 0.53tn, the lowest point since July 2014 (vs. -19% YoY in June), and missed the consensus of CNY 1.10tn. At the same time, traditional bank loans fell 49% YoY (+9% YoY in June), 57% below the consensus estimates. According to Trading Economics, although July is usually a weak month for financing activities, these dynamics underpin the slow economic recovery in China, with banks not in a rush to meet their lending targets in early 3Q23. In our view, this might keep weighing on domestic construction activity, and hence, China’s demand for industrial metals
#global
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
🗞Today, China has published its industrial production data for July (see table above)
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
#statistics #China
https://metals-wire.com:3000/news-reports
Morning Bites
🔗China’s crude steel output was up 12% YoY in July, after the flat dynamics in June. Tangshan (~13% of domestic steel supply) tightened production controls, requiring some plants to shut down at least one blast furnace until the end of July. Although China aims to keep steel production below 2022 level, it remains above last year’s figures (+3% YTD). We note that China represents ~57% of global crude steel supply
🏢China's property sales dropped a further 24% YoY in July (vs. -28% YoY in June) to 7-year lows, and now 50% below the historical highs of 2020. Floor space starts were down 26% YoY in July (-31% YoY in June), while personal mortgage loans also shrank 24% YoY (-13% YoY in June). At the same time, property completions grew 33% YoY in July. Despite the stagnating dynamic, China is aiming to introduce more support for its property sector, which could bolster the demand for industrial metals later in 2H23
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
🔗China’s crude steel output was up 12% YoY in July, after the flat dynamics in June. Tangshan (~13% of domestic steel supply) tightened production controls, requiring some plants to shut down at least one blast furnace until the end of July. Although China aims to keep steel production below 2022 level, it remains above last year’s figures (+3% YTD). We note that China represents ~57% of global crude steel supply
🏢China's property sales dropped a further 24% YoY in July (vs. -28% YoY in June) to 7-year lows, and now 50% below the historical highs of 2020. Floor space starts were down 26% YoY in July (-31% YoY in June), while personal mortgage loans also shrank 24% YoY (-13% YoY in June). At the same time, property completions grew 33% YoY in July. Despite the stagnating dynamic, China is aiming to introduce more support for its property sector, which could bolster the demand for industrial metals later in 2H23
#steel #property
https://metals-wire.com:3000/sector/Steel
Morning Bites (part 1)
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production during early August was 2.15mnt, a 0.8% increase from the previous ten days (also a 10.8% jump YoY). Meanwhile, local steel inventories grew 10.8% over the same period (-5.9% YoY). Although the crude steel output growth has followed July’s dynamics, we keep in mind Beijing’s intention not to exceed the 2022 production levels. Overall, new support measures for the domestic real estate segment is still the main potential trigger for steel demand growth, as China represents ~52% of global steel consumption
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel
🔗CISA mills' daily crude steel production during early August was 2.15mnt, a 0.8% increase from the previous ten days (also a 10.8% jump YoY). Meanwhile, local steel inventories grew 10.8% over the same period (-5.9% YoY). Although the crude steel output growth has followed July’s dynamics, we keep in mind Beijing’s intention not to exceed the 2022 production levels. Overall, new support measures for the domestic real estate segment is still the main potential trigger for steel demand growth, as China represents ~52% of global steel consumption
#steel
https://metals-wire.com/sector/Steel