Ukrainian-Russian war. Day 1430-1431:
Situation on Vasylivka front: During the last six days Russian Army captured a series of positions north of Stepnohirsk & between Stepove & Pavlivka.
Map: [ https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1V8NzjQkzMOhpuLhkktbiKgodOQ27X6IV&ll=47.59713788200841%2C35.424422101679546&z=12 ]

The situation on the Liman direction continues to escalate.

Logistics are worsening every day, and hostile small groups are constantly pressuring our defenses both on the flanks of the direction and on the outskirts of Liman itself.

The remnants of the Yampil bridgehead are still partially controlled, but a withdrawal from there is a fairly imminent prospect. I'm more interested in how the exit from there is planned, if Zakitne is finally lost.

The Drobyshevo-Novoselivka area is somewhat stabilized, the enemy is not advancing as rapidly anymore, and hostile groups are being eliminated.

In general, the situation on the direction is hanging by a thread. Because it only takes 1-2 tactical mistakes - and everything will seriously escalate, with a predictable outcome.

👉 Ukrainian Post

Well, I don't know what's being negotiated in Abu Dhabi, but 1 thing is for certain, I really hope that Russia does not end up with a short straw because of its own making... Because these "reports", which might be absolute nonsense, smell like a big pile of Minsk 3, when it should be the destruction of the Western influence in at least the Eastern half of Ukraine. Russophobia won't die in the West, it will come back harder next time.

Only +1° in the apartment in Kyiv: the building has been without heating since January 10.

Russia has begun escorting its shadow fleet with warships, the UK’s Royal Navy said.

The Royal Navy carried out a two-day operation in the English Channel, tracking the Russian corvette Boykiy, which was accompanying the oil tanker MT General Skobelev.

London said the presence of a warship near the tanker indicates a new tactic by Moscow—providing military cover for shadow fleet vessels carrying sanctioned oil. The British military added that all Russian ships near the UK are under constant surveillance.

My contacts in Kiev report uninterrupted electricity. It doesn't mean the situation is the same everywhere.

👉 My opinion. Ukraine will start substantial counterattacks over the next few months, on several fronts.
Why do I think so? The scale of current Ukrainian mobilisation is unseen, they are digging Ukrainians out of everywhere. I have heard many first hand accounts and I would say they have massively stepped up mobilisation.

Also I have recently heard stories of Ukrainian youngsters returning from EU borders, being refused entry in specifically Poland although they were allowed to leave Ukraine.

Let's see if my hunch is right.

Frontline Situation as of 25.01.26.

Novopavlivka Direction:
The enemy is cautiously, without sudden rushes, expanding its control zone east of Ivanivka and north of the road. For now, this is not a breakthrough or an operational-level threat. The enemy is working to stretch the gray zone and probe our defenses. The vector of action points towards Fedorivske, with an exit towards Mezhova. The Russians will first try to blur the line and only then attempt to impose pressure.

Pokrovsk Direction:
The enemy continues to systematically use FAB glide bombs on Hirshyne, while simultaneously employing FPV drones and drone-dropped munitions against our positions. Myrne and Matiasheve are under constant surveillance by enemy drones. The situation in the Rodynske area is tense; the enemy maneuvers freely, reaching the area of the Zaporizka mine. Essentially, this entire sector is now a continuous gray zone without clear control, with constant contact and the risk of local breakthroughs.

Shakhtarsk-Dobropillia Direction:
The enemy has made tactical advances southwest of Dorozhnе in the tree lines, but without consolidation. Our units are engaging them, preventing them from digging in. There is a high probability that the enemy has seized Novopavlivka and begun moving towards the adjacent Pavlivka. A gradual movement towards Kucheriv Yar has also been recorded—slowly but persistently, with an eye toward further expanding the bridgehead.

Kostiantynivka Direction:
On the southern flank of the city, a methodical destruction of enemy groups continues, with drones actively at work. Against Kostiantynivka itself, the enemy is employing artillery, but without any confirmed advances. Attempts at pressure amount to fire attrition, without changing the frontline.

Kramatorsk-Sloviansk Agglomeration:
Strikes with FABs have been noted against Kramatorsk—a classic terror tactic against the rear. On the ground, the enemy managed to occupy new positions east of Minkivka and began pressing towards Pryvillia. In parallel, enemy aviation is active against Nikiforivka. East of Riznykivka, a slight but systematic expansion of the gray zone has been recorded—without sharp rushes, but with the intent to force further combat.

Lyman, Kupiansk, and Vovchansk Directions:
Intense combat clashes continue. The situation is complex and dynamic. Without specific details—fighting is ongoing, both sides are locked in, and there are no rapid changes along the line for now.

Honor to our fighters!

👉 Ukrainian Post

Chasiv Yar

The city's defense continues! And that is likely the main takeaway from the almost two-year-long battle.

Within the city itself, a significant kill-zone has been created, due to which the majority of central and northern Chasiv Yar ("Chasik") is not actually controlled by the enemy.

Our warriors begin "greeting" the occupiers even from beyond the canal. Those who manage to advance further are primarily mopped up by drones.

Sometimes the occupiers attempt mechanized attacks. However, the result is no better.

But this kill-zone operates in both directions, as the enemy is not holding back either.

Therefore, the most accurate description of the situation is that a drone-based tug-of-war is happening in "Chasik."

The situation is far more complex to the north of the city.

Small groups of occupiers have already been confirmed in Minkivka. A legendary village since the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) era.

It is now a rather formidable fortified area, for which the enemy spares no resources to capture.

Fighting has also begun for Markove. It is now a village no less important than Minkivka.

Overall, Chasiv Yar has been covering Kostyantynivka ("Konstakha"), Druzhkivka, and Kramatorsk.

And if the enemy has made almost no progress from Chasiv Yar towards Kostyantynivka, there is movement towards Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk ("Kramik").

I am confident that one way or another, this movement will be stopped, and the enemy will still focus on Kostyantynivka and the remnants of Chasiv Yar.

👉 Ukrainian Post

Kharkiv Direction (Border):
In this sector, the enemy has intensified its activity and is no longer limiting itself to tree lines. A sustained entry into the northern part of the settlement of Nesterne has been recorded. Previously, the enemy operated from the forest belts to the northeast, conducting reconnaissance by fire, but is now beginning to press into the settlement itself. The gray zone is slowly but systematically expanding within the village—a sign not of random raids, but of an attempt to consolidate.

Thus, a clear vector of enemy action on this stretch is emerging. For them, Nesterne is not a final objective but an intermediate element of pressure. The main logic is to stretch our attention and forces, create additional tension on the border, and force us to react at multiple points simultaneously.

Nearby is the settlement of Kruhle, which they clearly view as the next object of pressure. The likely scenario is simultaneous attempts to press both settlements, expanding the gray zone and testing the strength of our defense. This is a diversionary maneuver: without a deep breakthrough, but with the constant imposition of combat and the creation of a threat to widen the front.

The situation remains tense. The enemy is acting cautiously but consistently, attempting to impose its initiative on the border through a creeping advance.

👉 Ukrainian Post

The BM-35 drones flying over Kiev, fly below radar as they are remotely operated by pilots and therefore not able to be picked by Ukrainian radar to raise the alarm, hence a delay between first sight and air raid alarms going off

Lyman Direction: The enemy continues its attempts to creep towards Lyman from the southeastern flank. The main focus is the private housing sector: visual footage shows the enemy operating in small groups, looking for gaps between houses, trying to hide within the built-up area to gain at least some foothold.

Our fighters disrupt these attempts on the approach and prevent any consolidation—drones are operating intensively, enemy incursions are engaged swiftly, and the enemy forces are regularly neutralized before they can even deploy. Any activity in the sector immediately comes under our fire control.

Raids on the city's outskirts have not ceased, and the enemy also attempts to infiltrate deeper, but so far without confident control or systematic success. This is more about pressure and probing our defense. As long as the line holds, we are curtailing the enemy's maneuver.

We are working; they have plenty of manpower here, but so far they have no chance to consolidate.

Dobropillia Direction: The enemy is not abandoning attempts to infiltrate the Novyi Donbas area—they creep in with small groups, look for any cover, try to cling to buildings and tree lines, but they are not met by empty houses here. The fighters of the 25th Separate Rifle Battalion "Rys" ("Lynx") are working precisely and methodically: every enemy movement is under control, every attempt to consolidate is quickly disrupted by fire and drones. The occupiers are not allowed to settle in—they enter, receive fire, and either withdraw or remain on the ground.

At this moment, Novyi Donbas remains a deep gray zone. The enemy rushes here, ruins its own plans and personnel because advancing here is a constant risk and loss. For them, this is a direct corridor towards Dobropillia, so the pressure will continue. How long this direction will remain a deadly pit for them directly depends on our strength, resources, and the resilience of our defense.

Combat operations continue. Supporting our fighters is critically important right now—everything needed at the front determines whether we stop the enemy here and now or whether they will try to crawl further. Here, they must be held and ground down.

👉 Ukrainian Post

Additional Sectors of the Front, Brief Ground Changes:

Huliaipole Direction:
Enemy movement and attempts at consolidation have been recorded northeast of Zahirne. Simultaneously, the enemy is stretching a gray zone in a strip from Huliaipole itself towards the settlement of Zaliznychne. For now, this is not a breakthrough or a sudden rush, but a creeping push with small groups, aimed at expanding space for future actions. The direction is tense; the enemy is looking for weak spots, operating cautiously without sudden rushes.

Novopavlivka Direction:
Northeast of Ivanivka, the enemy has penetrated even deeper—by approximately one tree line. The picture is standard, so-called infiltration by small groups, a slow expansion of the gray area without attempts at an immediate assault. At this moment, nothing is critical—it's more like reconnaissance by fire and probing the ground for future actions than a real offensive.

Pokrovsk Direction:
The situation regarding enemy tactics is unchanged. The enemy continues to pummel Hirshyne with FAB glide bombs, working on area targets, trying to dislodge our positions with pressure from the air. In response, our forces precisely engaged east of Rodynske. The enemy attempted a small mechanized assault, bringing in infantry—with zero result. All who advanced were eliminated in the tree lines, with no chance of developing the attack.

Druzhkivka Direction:
The settlement of Toretske is currently in a state of a conditional gray zone. Heavy, grueling battles are ongoing. The enemy is trying to push in and gain a foothold, but no consolidation is occurring. The Russians are meeting resistance; the line is constantly fluctuating, but control is not being granted to them. The situation is tough, yet without the loss of positions.

👉 Ukrainian Post

Ukraine May Be Testing a New FPV Strike Drone Recently Purchased by US Marines — UNITED24 Media https://share.google/p9CBzCh3FHTqoZqYz

Checking details on https://ualosses.org/ , Ukraine suffered substantial losses during the war. However, 3 people that I know who died, during the conflict, names do not appear on this list. So what I'm saying, it's not accurate, but a good baseline to start with.