💰 Protests Erupt in Iran Amid Currency Collapse and Rising Inflation

🚨 Nationwide protests have erupted in Iran as the country's currency, the rial, plummets to a record low against the US dollar, leading to critical levels of inflation and the resignation of the Central Bank governor. Demonstrations took place in major cities including Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, and Mashhad, with traders and shopkeepers voicing their grievances.

📉 The rial has dramatically depreciated, now standing at 1.38 million to the dollar, a sharp decline from 32,000 rials per dollar in 2015. This economic crisis is characterized by severe inflation, with December's rate reaching 42.2% and significant increases in food prices (up 72%) and health items (up 50%) compared to the previous year. The situation has been exacerbated by international sanctions and regional tensions.

These are the largest protests in Iran since the 2022 demonstrations following Mahsa Jina Amini’s death.

📅 The current unrest marks the largest protests since those in 2022, highlighting the public's frustration over the deteriorating economic conditions. Factors contributing to the unrest include currency depreciation, high inflation rates, potential tax increases, and uncertainty from regional conflicts.

🪙 Iran's Revolutionary Step: Accepting Cryptocurrency for Military Equipment

💰 The Ministry of Defense Export Center of Iran, known as Mindex, has made a groundbreaking move by accepting cryptocurrency payments for advanced military equipment, including drones and ballistic missiles. This marks the first instance of a country publicly accepting crypto for such transactions.

📄 According to a report by the Financial Times, Mindex will allow payments in digital currencies and barter arrangements for its products. This decision is significant as it facilitates payments to Iran's military industry, which is currently under U.S. unilateral sanctions that complicate traditional payment methods.

🌐 The ministry's website confirms this policy, stating that payments can be made "in the form of payment in the cryptocurrency agreed upon in the contract," including barter options. It features a marketplace for various military products, from ammunition to armored tanks.

📝 However, Mindex stipulates that buyers must make specific commitments regarding the use of the purchased products during warfare at the time of signing the supply contract. The institution emphasizes that due to Iran's history of circumventing sanctions, the delivery of these products is likely to occur swiftly after contract processing.

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🚫 New Legislation Aims to Prevent Insider Trading in Prediction Markets

📜 The Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 is set to be introduced with the support of Representative Ritchie Torres (D-NY). This bill seeks to prohibit federal officials, including elected representatives and Executive Branch employees, from engaging in prediction-market contracts when they possess or could access material nonpublic information through their official duties.

⚖️ The legislation specifically targets trades related to government policies and actions on platforms involved in interstate commerce. It aims to address concerns over insider trading allegations, particularly in light of a recent incident where a trader reportedly made a $400,000 profit in under 24 hours from a Polymarket bet regarding a leadership change in Venezuela.

What does the bill prohibit? It bans federal officials from transacting in prediction-market contracts when they have or could obtain insider information.

📍 The bill's introduction was prompted by a specific event: a newly created Polymarket account invested $30,000 in a contract predicting Maduro's exit. Following the U.S. detention of Maduro, the trader profited significantly within a short timeframe.

Where will the restrictions apply? To any prediction-market platform engaged in interstate commerce within the United States.

🔍 The proposed restrictions will apply to all prediction-market platforms operating within the United States that engage in interstate commerce. The legislation is deemed necessary to uphold market fairness and maintain public confidence by preventing abuses related to insider trading.

📉 Bitcoin ETFs Face Outflows as Ether, XRP, and Solana Show Resilience

🔄 On Tuesday, the crypto ETF landscape experienced a significant shift as bitcoin saw heavy outflows while ether continued its upward trend. XRP and Solana also gained momentum amidst a mixed trading session.

📉 Bitcoin ETFs reported a net outflow of $243.34 million, primarily due to Fidelity’s FBTC which alone lost $312.24 million. Grayscale’s GBTC followed with an exit of $83.07 million and other funds like Ark & 21Shares’ ARKB and Vaneck’s HODL also faced outflows. Blackrock’s IBIT was the exception, gaining $228.66 million.

📈 In contrast, ether ETFs saw a third consecutive session of recovery with an inflow of $114.74 million. Blackrock’s ETHA led this charge with a significant entry of $198.80 million. However, some funds like Grayscale’s ETHE and Fidelity’s FETH experienced exits.

📊 XRP ETFs recorded $19.12 million in inflows with Franklin’s XRPZ leading the way. Solana ETFs also remained positive, attracting $9.22 million primarily driven by Fidelity’s FSOL.

🔍 Overall, Tuesday's trading highlighted a clear divide in investor behavior. While bitcoin faced profit-taking after a recent surge, ether maintained its rebound and XRP and Solana continued to attract steady demand.

📈 American Banks Boost Coinbase's Stock Outlook

💬 Two major American banks have recently improved their outlook on Coinbase, the leading crypto exchange in the United States. Bank of America raised its price target for Coinbase's stock (COIN) to $340, a 41% increase from current levels. This decision was influenced by several key factors that could enhance COIN's value in the near future.

📊 The bank highlighted Coinbase's strategic move towards becoming an "everything exchange" by incorporating stock trading and prediction markets.

COIN detailed its expansion into stock/ETG trading and prediction markets for the first time. This supports its objective of becoming the everything exchange

said the bank. Bank of America also suggested that the anticipated launch of a native token for Base, Coinbase's Ethereum layer two chain, could serve as a bullish catalyst. Analysts noted that

a native token launch would incentivize builders, creators and early adopters

and could raise billions in cash for the company.

🔍 Goldman Sachs also upgraded COIN from neutral to "Buy," expressing increased optimism about the crypto market. The bank echoed Bank of America's views on Coinbase's expansion into new services beyond crypto trading. It emphasized the exchange's shift towards growing products like tokenization and prediction markets.

📉 Despite these upgrades, COIN was trading just above $240, down over 46% from its all-time high. However, both banks see Coinbase as a long-term leader in the crypto space and a trusted platform with the #1 market share in the U.S. as the world continues to adopt crypto technologies.

📈 Crypto ETFs Surge as Bitcoin Leads the Charge

📊 Crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced a significant boost, marking their second consecutive day of gains, driven by Bitcoin's strongest inflow of 2026. This resurgence in investor confidence also benefited Ether, XRP, and Solana funds.

💰 Bitcoin ETFs saw a remarkable net inflow of $753.73 million, the largest daily intake for this category in 2026. Fidelity’s FBTC led the way with $351.36 million, followed by Bitwise’s BITB at $159.42 million and Blackrock’s IBIT with $126.27 million. Other contributors included Ark & 21Shares’ ARKB ($84.88 million) and Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust ($18.80 million). Notably, there were no outflows recorded across the complex.

📈 Ether ETFs also showed positive momentum with a $129.99 million inflow. Blackrock’s ETHA topped the list with $53.31 million, while Grayscale’s Ether Mini Trust attracted $35.42 million. Bitwise’s ETHW added $22.96 million, and Fidelity’s FETH brought in $14.38 million.

📊 XRP ETFs continued their positive trend with a $12.98 million inflow. Grayscale’s GXRP led with $7.86 million, followed by Canary’s XRPC and Bitwise’s XRP with additions of $2.73 million and $2.39 million, respectively.

🌱 Solana ETFs also posted gains with a $5.91 million inflow, driven entirely by Fidelity’s FSOL.

Bitcoin’s explosive inflow set the tone, ether confirmed follow-through demand, while XRP and solana ETFs continued to attract steady allocations.

📈 This synchronized performance across various crypto ETFs signals a significant rebound in investor confidence as we move deeper into January.

🌍 Ark Investment Management Predicts Digital Assets Could Reach $28 Trillion by 2030

📈 According to Ark Investment Management's recent report, Big Ideas 2026, the global digital asset market is projected to experience significant growth, potentially reaching $28 trillion by 2030. This forecast is driven by increased blockchain adoption, bitcoin dominance, and the expansion of smart contract platforms.

Digital assets could reach $28 trillion in market value in 2030,

Ark stated in its report. It outlines a base-case scenario where the total digital asset market capitalization rises from approximately $2 trillion in 2025 to around $28 trillion by 2030. This implies an estimated compound annual growth rate of about 61%.

The report further explains that the market for smart contract networks and pure-play digital currencies could grow at an annual rate of ~61% to $28 trillion in 2030. Ark believes that bitcoin could account for 70% of this market, with the remainder dominated by smart contract networks like Ethereum and Solana.

📊 Ark's projections indicate that cryptocurrencies could expand to roughly $22 trillion to $23 trillion by 2030, while smart contract platforms may grow to an estimated $5 trillion to $6 trillion. This upward trajectory highlights Ark's view that digital assets are entering a period of rapid adoption.

The analysis links this anticipated growth to structural shifts within the digital asset ecosystem. Bitcoin is expected to remain the dominant player in the cryptocurrency segment due to institutional investment and its role as a digital alternative to gold. Meanwhile, smart contract networks are projected to capture significant value through decentralized finance and tokenized real-world assets.

While Ark emphasizes that long-term projections carry uncertainty,

the data presented positions digital assets as a multi-tens-of-trillions-of-dollars market by 2030. This suggests that the sector could rival major traditional asset classes in scale.

🚨 Rising Odds of Government Shutdown Amidst Democratic Opposition to DHS Funding

📈 The likelihood of a government shutdown has surged on Polymarket following recent unrest in Minnesota, which has led Democrats to oppose a funding bill that would combine Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding with other federal agency budgets. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer stated he would vote no if the bill was presented in that way.

💰 On Saturday, Polymarket reported a 74% chance of a government shutdown occurring by January 31st, the highest odds recorded. This shift in the prediction market comes after a shooting incident involving Border Patrol agents in Minnesota, which has intensified Democrats' resistance to funding the DHS amidst concerns over ICE enforcement actions against U.S. citizens.

The DHS bill is woefully inadequate to rein in the abuses of ICE. I will vote no,

Schumer emphasized, adding that Senate Democrats would not support the appropriations bill if it included DHS funding. He called for the bill to be restructured and for more time to be allocated to address DHS funding issues.

⏳ If an agreement is not reached, the Trump administration could face its second government shutdown after experiencing the largest appropriations lapse in history on October 1st, which disrupted access to critical data and services.

🔍 In summary, the Polymarket prediction market indicates a significant possibility of a government shutdown due to Democratic opposition to DHS funding, with Chuck Schumer leading the call for a reevaluation of the appropriations bill.

🪙 Gold's Rise and the Dollar's Fate: Diverging Perspectives

🔍 As gold and silver prices reach historic highs in early 2026, two analysts present contrasting views on the implications for the U.S. dollar and global markets. Alexander Campbell, a former commodities head at Bridgewater Associates, argues that the rise in precious metals does not signal a decline of the dollar. He asserts that the global financial system remains dollar-centric, supported by U.S. capital markets and military backing.

📉 Campbell emphasizes that gold serves primarily as a portfolio hedge rather than a direct bet against the dollar. He states,

My gold and silver positions are implicitly short dollars. Every ounce I own was purchased by selling dollars.

He notes that recent dollar declines are modest historically and that narratives of collapse are disconnected from long-term price trends. Instead of focusing on currency speculation, Campbell highlights capital flows as a more significant indicator of dollar strength.

📊 In contrast, Peter Girnus, a senior threat researcher at Trend Micro, interprets recent dollar weakness as a result of intentional policy choices. He references a 2024 policy paper by Stephen Miran that advocates for strategic dollar devaluation to restructure global trade. Girnus points out that the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen to its lowest level since early 2022, which he views as a trend-driven development rather than a temporary fluctuation.

📈 He also highlights the surge in gold prices above $5,000 per ounce as being driven by central bank demand, particularly from emerging markets like China. Girnus argues that the loss of the dollar's purchasing power over the years and the end of gold convertibility in 1971 have created an environment where inflation and currency devaluation are preferred methods for managing federal debt.

🗣 Girnus states,

You don’t pay down 134% debt-to-GDP. You inflate it away. You devalue the currency it’s denominated in.

He raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve amidst growing alignment between fiscal and monetary objectives.

⚖️ The divergence in these perspectives underscores a broader debate in 2026 about the long-term resilience of reserve-currency status versus the potential for controlled adjustments over time. While both analysts agree that gold's rise reflects structural forces, they differ on the interpretation of dollar dynamics—with Campbell seeing dollar dominance as intact and Girnus viewing dollar depreciation as a deliberate policy outcome.

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🎢 Bitcoin Rollercoaster Resistance and the Lack of Relief

📈 As of February 1, 2026, Bitcoin is valued at $78,634 with a market capitalization of $1.57 trillion. Despite a high 24-hour trading volume of $83.65 billion, the market struggles to form a recovery narrative. BTC/USD price fluctuations between $77,082 and $82,733 suggest a temporary fix rather than a definitive breakout.

📉 The daily chart reveals a dramatic drop to the $75,500 zone following a collapse from the $88,000–$90,000 range. This movement is identified as a classic liquidation confirmed by a volume spike. Traders seeking a trend reversal require a daily close above $86,000, as anything below remains speculative optimism.

⚖️ On the 4-hour timeframe, consolidation and indecision prevail between $76,000 and $77,000. While sellers appear to be taking a breather, the asset lacks the momentum for a sustained rally. Resistance at $84,000 remains strong, and every price spike looks like a trap until Bitcoin reclaims $80,500.

🔍 Shorter-term analysis on the 1-hour chart shows Bitcoin trapped between $77,800 and $79,500 with flattening momentum. Significant movements depend on breaking $80,500 to the upside or $77,200 to the downside. Technical oscillators like the RSI at 25 and the CCI at −195 indicate oversold conditions, yet momentum indicators like the MACD at −2,509 suggest continued downward pressure.

⚰️ Moving averages paint a grim picture, with all major EMA and SMA levels from 10 to 200 periods sitting well above the current price. Notable levels include the 10-period EMA at $84,768 and the 200-period SMA at $103,952. Until BTC recovers these zones, the broader trend remains under heavy resistance.

🐻 The bearish outlook remains dominant as Bitcoin stays below every key moving average. Analysts suggest that until the price reclaims $86,000 with significant volume, rallies will likely be sold off quickly. The current structure indicates that the trend is still bearish without signs of exhaustion.

🔌 Bitcoin Miners Hit Shutdown Prices as Profitability Plummets

📉 The Bitcoin mining industry is facing a severe profitability squeeze as prices hit a multi-month low near $74,500 on February 2, 2026. Combined with high network difficulty, several mining rigs have crossed their "shutdown price"—the point where electricity costs exceed mining revenue. According to Antpool, at a standard power cost of $0.08 per kWh, older and mid-tier models have officially become unprofitable to operate.

⛏️ Specific hardware models are struggling to remain viable in the current climate. The Antminer S19 XP+ Hydro, Whatsminer M60S, and Avalon A1466I have reportedly crossed the shutdown threshold. Even newer units are under pressure:

The Antminer S21 series is approaching a critical shutdown range between $69,000 and $74,000.

CryptoQuant reports that the Miner Profit/Loss Sustainability Index has dropped to its lowest level in 14 months, leaving many operators "extremely underpaid."

💰 Only the latest generation of high-efficiency hardware remains comfortably profitable. The Antminer U3S23H and S23 Hydro, which began shipping in 2026, have shutdown prices estimated above $44,000, allowing them to maintain healthy daily returns. This technological divide means that while smaller operations face closure, large-scale miners with flagship Bitmain series equipment continue to dominate the hashpower.

❄️ The crisis is compounded by external factors, including a major North American winter storm that forced several large miners to curtail operations to protect power grids. Although network difficulty slightly decreased by 1% to 146.4 trillion in early 2026, it remains near historic highs. If Bitcoin prices continue to slide toward the psychological $50,000 threshold, the industry may witness a massive exit of hashrate and significant difficulty resets.

👀 Ault Capital Group unveils Ault Blockchain public testnet

⚡️ Ault Capital Group today announced the public testnet launch of Ault Blockchain, a Layer 1 network designed for trading, settlement, and institutional-grade onchain infrastructure. This launch marks the first public release of the protocol and opens access to developers, infrastructure operators, and early network participants.

⛔️ Ault Blockchain is built as a Cosmos-based Layer 1 with full Ethereum Virtual Machine compatibility, enabling Ethereum-native smart contracts and tooling to run without modification. The network is governed by Ault DAO, which oversees protocol rules, economic parameters, and long-term upgrades through onchain governance.

🔔 The public testnet provides a live environment for evaluating core network functionality, validator performance, and infrastructure design. This early access seeks community engagement and feedback by contributors who add value to the network’s development and stability.

🔗 In contrast to typical launch models, Ault Blockchain will not conduct a public token sale. Instead, the native AULT token will be distributed exclusively through a protocol-controlled emissions schedule tied to measurable network participation, including consensus security and licensed infrastructure operations rather than speculative activity.

📈 Bitcoin's Resurgence: A Response to Cooling U.S. Inflation

📊 Bitcoin experienced a significant rebound on Friday, rising to $69,000 after U.S. inflation data showed a cooler-than-expected rate of 2.4%. This marked a 5% increase in less than 24 hours, adding approximately $70 billion to its market capitalization and elevating the overall crypto market to $2.42 trillion.

The catalyst for the broad-based rally was the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which fell to 2.4%—edging out the 2.5% projected by analysts.

📉 Prior to this surge, Bitcoin had faced pressure, dipping below $66,000 for two consecutive sessions. It rebounded from an intraday low of $65,670 to reach a high of $69,405. The CPI's disinflationary signal positively impacted the digital asset economy, with most major tokens gaining between 2% and 5% and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) leading the way with an 8% jump.

💼 This cooling inflation supports U.S. President Donald Trump's calls for aggressive interest rate cuts, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell. The data also challenge the belief that the administration's tariffs would lead to an inflationary spike.

📉 U.S. equities mirrored the crypto market's enthusiasm, with the Nasdaq reaching an intraday high before a mid-session reversal. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average also saw gains, although the Dow remains on track to finish the week lower than its Tuesday peak.

Despite this relief rally, broader market sentiment remains remarkably fragile.

⚠️ The sudden volatility caught bears off guard, leading to over $170 million in short-position liquidations within 4 hours. Bitcoin led these liquidations with $92 million wiped out, followed by ether at $48 million. Despite the recent gains, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index indicates extreme caution among investors, sitting at 8 within the "extreme fear" zone.

🪙 Bitcoin's Current Market Dynamics: A High-Stakes Standoff

📉 Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $68,494, facing significant short-selling pressure not seen since August 2024. Despite a 45% drop from its October 2025 peak of over $126,000, the cryptocurrency has managed to maintain its position in the upper-$60,000 range, frustrating bearish traders.

🔍 Recent metrics from Cryptoquant indicate that funding rates across major exchanges have reached their most negative levels since August 2024. This suggests a heavy short positioning in the market.

When funding rates turn deeply negative, short sellers pay longs to maintain positions — a signal that bearish bets are overcrowded.

This situation mirrors the pattern observed in August 2024, when Bitcoin rallied over 90% after a similar setup.

📊 As of February 16, 2026, Bitcoin futures open interest stands at approximately $43 billion, remaining moderately high despite a slight dip. Elevated open interest often precedes volatility, as crowded positions create liquidation risks. Data shows a slight tilt towards shorts globally, with Bitfinex reporting a dominant 67.61% short position.

💥 The potential for significant liquidations adds to the current narrative. A 10% increase in Bitcoin's price could trigger around $4.34 billion in short liquidations, compared to $2.35 billion in long liquidations for a similar decline.

The upside liquidation imbalance is nearly double — a setup that can accelerate rallies if momentum builds.

📈 Kalshi: A Valid Alternative for Predicting Macroeconomic Variables

🔔 A recent Federal Reserve paper titled “Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets” evaluated the accuracy of prediction markets in relation to macroeconomic indicators like inflation and interest rates. The study concluded that Kalshi, as a regulated platform, offers a more reliable benchmark for these figures compared to traditional methods such as surveys and forecasts.

📊 The report highlighted that Kalshi provides a real-time snapshot of market movements around macroeconomic numbers, responding quickly to news events. It stated that these markets

provide unique insights—particularly for variables like GDP growth, core inflation, unemployment, and payrolls, for which no other market-based distributions currently exist.

This positions Kalshi as a valuable tool for measuring market sentiment and macroeconomic uncertainty.

📈 Furthermore, the paper emphasized that as prediction markets mature and liquidity increases, their potential to enhance real-time policy analysis and academic research will grow. It stated,

As these markets mature and liquidity deepens, their potential to enhance real-time policy analysis and academic research will only grow over time.