TRUMP: WILL ADD ON TO TARIFFS IF COUNTRIES DON'T ABIDE BY DRUG POLICY

TRUMP: IF NECESSARY, WE'LL INVESTIGATE THE DRUG COMPANIES

TRUMP THREATENS TARGETING CARS IF DRUG PRICES WON'T GO DOWN

*Related to order directing drugmakers to lower the prices of their medicines

TRUMP: CHINA TARIFFS WILL GO UP WITHOUT A DEAL

TRUMP: CHINA TARIFFS WON'T GO BACK UP ALL THE WAY TO 145%

TRUMP: THINK WE'LL HAVE A DEAL

*COINBASE SET TO JOIN S&P 500 MAY 19

*JPMORGAN SEES NEXT FED RATE CUT IN DECEMBER VS SEPTEMBER PREVIOUSLY

*JPMORGAN SAYS US RECESSION RISK IS NOW BELOW 50%

*CITI EXPECTS THE NEXT FED RATE CUT IN JULY FROM JUNE

*GOLDMAN SACHS NOW SEES THE NEXT FED RATE CUT IN DECEMBER FROM JULY

*GOLDMAN SACHS REDUCES US RECESSION ODDS TO 35% FROM 45%

*BARCLAYS EXPECTS THE NEXT FED RATE CUT IN DECEMBER FROM JULY: INFINITYHEDGE

*WELLS FARGO EXPECTS THE NEXT FED RATE CUT IN SEPTEMBER

*BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS EXPECTS THE NEXT FED RATE CUT IN DECEMBER

*US APRIL CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US APRIL CORE CPI RISES 2.8% Y/Y; EST. +2.8%
*US APRIL CONSUMER PRICES RISE 2.3% Y/Y; EST. +2.4%
*US APRIL CORE CPI RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.3%

*Tariffs were unlikely to have a major impact this month, being the first month of the administration’s global tariff regime. Businesses also had the means to be patient with healthy inventories and elevated margins: Chris Anstey

*The Fed likely won’t take much signal from April’s CPI report, as we think their internal forecasts point to higher inflation in months ahead. We maintain our baseline that the Fed will cut rates only once this year: Bloomberg Economics

MICROSOFT CUTTING 3% OF ALL WORKERS - CNBC

*Microsoft had 228,000 employees as of last June.

*It’s likely Microsoft’s largest round of layoffs since the elimination of 10,000 roles in 2023.

*Microsoft is aiming to reduce management layers.

*TRUMP: NOW WE'RE TARIFFING COUNTRIES AT A LEVEL NOBODY'S SEEN

COINBASE DATA LEAK ⚠️🚨

Coinbase: Cyber criminals bribed and recruited a group of rogue overseas support agents to steal Coinbase customer data to facilitate social engineering attacks. These insiders abused their access to customer support systems to steal the account data for a small subset of customers. We will reimburse customers who were tricked into sending funds to the attacker.

*Coinbase: We will not pay the $20M ransom demand we received. Instead we are establishing a $20M reward fund for information leading to the arrest and conviction of the criminals.

*Coinbase expects up to $400 million hit from cyber attack

*Coinbase: Company's investigation is ongoing, the full impact of these events are not, yet known.

*US APRIL CORE PPI RISES 3.1% Y/Y; EST. +3.1%
*US APRIL PRODUCER PRICES FALL 0.5% M/M; EST. +0.2%
*US APRIL CORE PPI FALLS 0.4% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US APRIL PRODUCER PRICES RISE 2.4% Y/Y; EST. +2.5%

*US APRIL RETAIL SALES RISE 0.1% M/M; EST. +0.0%
*US APRIL RETAIL SALES EX-AUTO RISE 0.1% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US APRIL RETAIL SALES EX AUTOS, GAS RISE 0.2% M/M; PREV. 0.8%
*US APRIL RETAIL 'CONTROL GROUP' SALES FALL 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.3%

*Prices paid to US producers unexpectedly declined in April by the most in five years, largely reflecting a slump in margins, suggesting companies are absorbing some of the hit from higher tariffs

SEC INVESTIGATING WHETHER COINBASE MISSTATED ITS USER NUMBERS: NYT

*The investigation, which has not been previously reported, has focused on a metric that Coinbase included in securities filings and marketing materials, claiming that the company had more than 100 million “verified users"

*Paul Grewal, Coinbase’s chief legal officer, said in a statement that "we strongly believe this investigation should not continue, we remain committed to working with the S.E.C. to bring this matter to a close”

*It’s not unusual for the SEC to open an investigation after a company disavows a metric it had been promoting to investors.

RUSSIA DEPLOYED 640,000 TROOPS IN WAR AGAINST UKRAINE: MILITARY

*STATE OF WISCONSIN INVESTMENT BOARD EXITS BITCOIN ETF POSITION: SEC FILING

META IS DELAYING THE RELEASE OF ITS FLAGSHIP AI MODEL "BEHEMOTH" DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT ITS CAPABILITIES: WSJ

COINBASE SUED AFTER SCAMMERS BRIBED WORKERS TO REVEAL USER DATA: BBG

*EU's exports to the US jumped by 59% in March YoY. EU's trade surplus with US increased to €40.7B in March, the highest ever, due to frontloading by exporters seeking to avoid tariffs.

*Bloomberg survey shows US tariffs on Chinese products imposed this year will likely hold at 30% through late 2025. The current rate is high enough to wipe out 70% of Chinese shipments to the US in the medium term: Bloomberg Economics

*Trump said on Friday that he’d set tariff rates for trading partners "over the next two to three weeks," saying his administration lacks the capacity to negotiate deals with all of its trading partners. Bessent and Lutnick “will be sending letters out essentially telling people” what “they’ll be paying to do business in the United States.” Trump added “I think we’re going to be very fair. But it’s not possible to meet the number of people that want to see us.”

ICYMI: Trump said on Friday that he’d set new tariff rates for trading partners "over the next two to three weeks," saying his administration lacks the capacity to negotiate deals with all of its trading partners. Bessent and Lutnick “will be sending letters out essentially telling people” what “they’ll be paying to do business in the United States.” Trump added “I think we’re going to be very fair. But it’s not possible to meet the number of people that want to see us.”

*Trump has held out the prospect that the US will set new tariff rates on many of its trading partners unilaterally, rather than striking deals with all of them.

The Week Ahead | infinityhedge

Mon/19:
*Trump will speak to Putin
*Coinbase to Join S&P 500
*Saylor expected to announce another BTC purchase
*US Senate to vote on the Stablecoin bill “GENIUS Act”
*CME to launch XRP futures
*$PYTH Token unlock: $330M (57.8%)

Tue/20: Google I/O, Google’s biggest developer conference: updates to AI Models, Android 16

Wed/21: Baidu Earnings

Thu/22: Trump dinner with top 220 $TRUMP Token holders

Sun/25: Fed Chair Powell Speaks

TBA/Whole Week: Trump's 'big, beautiful' tax bill, U.S. debt and deficit, Trade deals?

ICYMI: UK overtook China to become the second-largest U.S. Treasury holder for the first time ever; Moody’s lowered the US credit score to Aa1 from Aaa on Friday; Bessent said on Sunday that U.S. may impose some tariffs by region rather than on individual countries, as time runs out to negotiate a laundry list of trade deals globally. Bessent told NBC that if they’re not negotiating in good faith, they are going to get a letter saying here is the rate, so I would expect that everyone would come and negotiate in good faith, Those that get the letter will face the tariff rate that the White House announced on April 2.

*More about the week Ahead and What Happened last week: https://open.substack.com/pub/infinityhedge/p/the-7-days-160

US 10-YEAR YIELD RISES ABOVE 4.5%; 20Y, 30Y HITS 5%

The Quantum Mechanics of Jensen Huang:

*In December, 2024: Google announced its new quantum computing breakthrough chip called 'Willow'

*January, 2025: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that practical quantum computers are still be 15 to 30 years away, this statement crashed Quantum computing stocks by atleast 40%

In February: Microsoft announced its quantum chip 'Majorana 1'

*In March (GTC Event): Jensen said he was wrong about timeline for quantum

This is the first event in history where a company CEO invites all of the guests to explain why he was wrong

& Then Nvidia announced that it will be building accelerated quantum computing research center

*Now Today: Nvidia is in advanced talks to invest in PsiQuantum—a quantum computing startup —is raising at least $750M in a funding round led by BlackRock, with a pre-money valuation of $6B.

CIRCLE PURSUES IPO—BUT TALKS WITH COINBASE AND RIPPLE COULD MEAN A SALE, SOURCES SAY: FORTUNE

*There is a chance, though, that Circle’s IPO won’t come to fruition since the company has recently taken part in informal talks to sell itself to Coinbase or to Ripple, according to four banking and private equity executives

*Circle is seeking at least $5 billion

*“If Coinbase wanted to buy them, Circle would sell in a heartbeat,” one of the sources, a banker, said.

*Any bid by Ripple would likely consist of XRP In contrast, Coinbase could pay with cash and stock so Coinbase would be viewed more favorably, the banker said.

NEW US INTELLIGENCE SUGGESTS ISRAEL PLANNING TO ATTACK IRAN: CNN