TRUMP: I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD: INFINITYHEDGE

IRAN'S PARLIAMENT SPEAKER QALIBAF: NO NEGOTIATIONS HAVE BEEN HELD WITH THE US, AND FAKENEWS IS USED TO MANIPULATE THE FINANCIAL AND OIL MARKETS AND ESCAPE THE QUAGMIRE IN WHICH THE US AND ISRAEL ARE TRAPPED: INFINITYHEDGE

$1.8 TRILLION PRIVATE CREDIT INDUSTRY FACES WAVE OF REDEMPTION REQUESTS AS FUNDS CAP WITHDRAWALS AT 5-7%: INFINITYHEDGE

GS AND JPM OFFER HEDGE FUNDS BASKETS TO SHORT PRIVATE CREDIT MARKET

DIMON ORDERED FULL-SCALE INSPECTION OF JPM LOAN BOOKS FOR SOFTWARE EXPOSURE

TIMELINE:
Feb19: Blue Owl Halts Redemptions on Private Credit Retail Fund

Feb25: UK mortgage lender 'MFS' collapsed amid allegations of fraud. They had borrowed more than £2b ($2.7b) from heavyweights incl. Barclays and Banco Santander, claimed to be one of the UK’s biggest providers of short-term bridge loans until its demise

Mar3: Blackstone’s Flagship Private Credit Fund Hit by Record Redemptions; Clients pulled $3.7b from BCRED in Q1

Mar6: BlackRock $26b Private Credit Fund Limits Withdrawals

Mar11: JPM Restricts Some Private Credit Lending After Markdowns

Mar12: Morgan Stanley restricts redemptions at private credit fund after withdrawals surge, honors less than half of 11% redemption requests

Mar12: Cliffwater $33B flagship fund caps redemptions at 7% after investors request record 14% withdrawal, first time exceeding inflows

Mar21: Blackstone flagship private credit fund posted its first monthly loss in more than 3 years: infinityhedge

Mar23: Apollo Caps Private Credit Fund Withdrawals as Requests Hit 11%; gives investors only 45% of requested withdrawals from $15b fund

Mar24: Moody’s cuts rating on private credit fund run by KKR & Future Standard to junk as bad loans grow

Mar24: Ares limits withdrawals from $10.7b private credit fund at 5% after requests hit 11.6%, fulfilled only $524m of $1.2b requests

Mar25: Barclays Pulls Back on Asset-Based Lending After MFS Collapse

VIEWS:
* The shakeout risks delaying the industry's $9T lobbying target: penetrating 401(k) retirement accounts

* Oaktree’s Poli notes that discounts are already "sizeable" in software debt, but the broader "big step-in opportunity" hasn't quite arrived yet, as high-yield bonds are still hovering around 7.1%: infinity-hedge

* DoubleLine CIO: Called private credit the top candidate to spark the next financial crisis

* DB: Flagged a massive $30B exposure to private credit, representing ~5% of its total loan book

* UBS warns private credit defaults could reach 15% in worst-case scenario due to ai disruption of software companies

* Apollo's Zito says Blackrock capping redemptions at 5% was exactly the right decision to protect redeeming & remaining investors

* Boaz warns interval funds overpromised you can get out but it doesn't work if there's actually a fire

* Ares CEO Mike blasts UBS 15% default forecast as actually irresponsible amid private credit software exposure concerns

* GS's Bantwal says limits on fund withdrawals are features not bugs

* MS analyst warns private credit defaults could reach COVID-level 8% as AI disrupts software firms

* Pimco's Stracke says 20-30% exposure to single industries like software prompts investors not wait to see how bad it gets

* DB's Sewing says in more than 10 years we haven't lost one cent in private credit

* JPM est. that software debt accounts for around 30% of all private-credit loans outstanding, while bank-originated debts hover around 10%

* Corbin Capital's Cocke says you cannot create liquidity from illiquid asset class, not enforcing limits creates first-mover advantage

* Fed Chair in 2007 said no significant spillovers from subprime expected, similar to 2026 complacency on private credit

* ECB to start fresh checks on banks' private credit exposure as concerns intensify over loan quality and ai impact

* U.S. banks back private credit with ~$300B (Moody's). IMF est. U.S. & EU banks carry a combined $4.5T exposure to non-bank financial institutions overall

* Evercore ISI: No sympathy for Main Street panicking—"Semi-liquid funds were designed & marketed as products offering limited liquidity... It’s important to retrain the investor base on the nature of private assets."

* JPM's Dimon, last year suggested there were “cockroaches” hiding in the financial system

*TRUMP: PER THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT'S REQUEST, I AM PAUSING ENERGY PLANT DESTRUCTION FOR 10 DAYS UNTIL MONDAY, APRIL 6, 2026, AT 8 P.M. ET

*TRUMP: TALKS ARE ONGOING AND, THEY ARE GOING VERY WELL

Trump: The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately “Open for Business,” we will conclude our lovely “stay” in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet “touched.” This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime’s 47 year “Reign of Terror.”

TRUMP: IF THE HORMUZ STRAIT IS NOT IMMEDIATELY "OPEN FOR BUSINESS," WE WILL CONCLUDE OUR LOVELY "STAY" IN IRAN BY BLOWING UP AND COMPLETELY OBLITERATING ALL OF THEIR ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTS, OIL WELLS AND KHARG ISLAND (AND POSSIBLY ALL DESALINIZATION PLANTS!)

TRUMP: IN SERIOUS TALKS WITH NEW REGIME

TRUMP SAYS DEAL WILL 'PROBABLY' BE REACHED

WE GOING BACK TO MOON

NASA is set to send four astronauts on a trip around the moon and back without landing there in 10 days. This is the first time that anyone would travel this far from Earth since Apollo 17 in 1972

More about Artemis 2:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/03/30/science/nasa-artemis-ii-moon-mission-what-to-know.html

Watch Live: https://www.youtube.com/live/Tf_UjBMIzNo

L-30 MINUTES

*US MARCH NONFARM PAYROLLS RISE 178K M/M; EST. +60K
*US MARCH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.3%; EST. 4.4%
*FEB REVISED DOWN FROM -92k TO -133k
*JAN REVISED UP FROM +126k TO +160k

U.S. ECONOMY ADDED 15K JOBS ON AVERAGE OVER THE PAST 6 MONTHS AND 68K PER MONTH SO FAR IN 2026

U.S. FIGHTER JET F-15 SHOT DOWN IN IRAN, SEARCH UNDERWAY FOR CREW: AXIOS- INFINITYHEDGE

IRAN OFFERS BOUNTY FOR CAPTURE OF US PILOTS

US RESCUED ONE CREW MEMBER FROM THE DOWNED F-15; SEARCH FOR 2ND CREW MEMBER IS ONGOING

A SECOND U.S. PLANE 'A-10 WARTHOG' CRASHED IN THE PERSIAN GULF REGION ON FRIDAY, LONE PILOT WAS SAFELY RESCUED: NYT

TRUMP: REMEMBER WHEN I GAVE IRAN TEN DAYS TO MAKE A DEAL OR OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT. TIME IS RUNNING OUT - 48 HOURS BEFORE ALL HELL WILL REIGN DOWN ON THEM - INFINITYHEDGE

THE WEEK AHEAD: INFINITYHEDGE

Monday:
- Trump Press Conference at 1 PM ET
- Artemis 2 Lunar Flyby at 2:45 PM ET

Tuesday: deadline for Iran to reopen the SoH, Trump has threatened to bomb Iran’s power plants, energy infra and bridges if it does not agree to a deal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8PM ET

Thursday: US PCE & Q4 GDP

Friday: US CPI

ICYMI:
- Some reports are flying about a potential Ceasefire but cautioned that the proposal was not new and had been resubmitted ahead of Trump’s deadline And also Trump has not signed off on the ceasefire idea; It’s one of many things being discussed and in response iran said No rational person would agree to ceasefire, it want end to the war not a temporary ceasefire
- Israel is awaiting authorization from U.S this week to begin striking Iran’s energy facilities
- The first attempts by QatarEnergy tankers carrying LNG to cross the Strait of Hormuz appeared to have been aborted.
- Israel said it had struck Iran’s largest petrochemical site

Trump: Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated.

*TRUMP TO SUSPEND BOMBING, ATTACK OF IRAN FOR TWO WEEKS

*TRUMP: SUSPENSION SUBJECT TO IRAN OPENING STRAIT OF HORMUZ

*TRUMP: ALMOST ALL POINTS OF PAST CONTENTION HAVE BEEN AGREED

*TRUMP: THIS WILL BE A DOUBLE SIDED CEASEFIRE

*TRUMP: TWO WEEKS WILL ALLOW AGREEMENT TO BE FINALIZED

*OIL SLUMPS 7.9% AFTER TRUMP AGREES TO IRAN EXTENSION

ACCORDING TO THREE IRANIAN OFFICIALS, IRAN ACCEPTED PAKISTAN'S TWO-WEEK CEASE-FIRE PROPOSAL FOLLOWING FRANTIC DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS BY PAKISTAN AND LAST-MINUTE INTERVENTION BY CHINA: NYT - INFINITYHEDGE

IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTER ARAGHCHI: IF ATTACKS ARE HALTED, FORCES WILL STOP ACTIONS

IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTER ARAGHCHI: SAFE PASSAGE OF HORMUZ WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR 2 WEEKS

THE CEASE-FIRE WAS APPROVED BY THE NEW SUPREME LEADER, AYATOLLAH MOJTABA KHAMENEI: INFINITYHEDGE

Iran 10 Points Breakdown: infinityhedge

US stance:

1. Nonaggression: highly likely to agree though Iran wants Russia/China as guarantors as well (not sure here)

2. Control over SoH: won't agree, unacceptable precedent

3. Nuclear Enrichment: might agree. Iran softened its stance & open to strict limits

4 & 5. Lift All Sanctions: highly likely to agree

6. End UN Resolutions: can lobby for this though Neither US nor EU is likely to allow Iran to rebuild its military legally with Russia or China.

7. End IAEA Probes: highly likely to lobby. Iran has softened this demand also

8. Compensation: won't pay. Iran softened, open to using its own frozen funds instead

9. US Troop Withdrawal: might agree to partial cuts but refuses a total pullout. Iran has backed away from this demand as well somewhat

10. Total Ceasefire: highly likely to agree but Israel currently refuses to halt its military operations in Lebanon

- PEACE TALKS EXPECTED TO START FROM THIS FRIDAY

ISRAELI PM NETANYAHU ORDERS TO OPEN DIRECT NEGOTIATIONS WITH LEBANON AS SOON AS POSSIBLE: INFINITYHEDGE

DIRECT NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN ISRAEL AND LEBANON WILL BEGIN NEXT WEEK. FIRST MEETING AT STATE DEPARTMENT IN WASHINGTON: AXIOS

*US MARCH CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.9% M/M; EST. +0.9%
*US MARCH CONSUMER PRICES RISE 3.3% Y/Y; EST. +3.3%
*US MARCH CORE CPI RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US MARCH CORE CPI RISES 2.6% Y/Y; EST. +2.7%

*GASOLINE PRICE RISE IN US CPI WAS MOST ON RECORD SINCE 1967

*GASOLINE ACCOUNTED FOR ALMOST THREE-QUARTERS OF MARCH'S CPI INCREASE

*US CPI SURGES 0.9% IN LARGEST MONTHLY JUMP SINCE 2022

TRUMP: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY, U.S. NAVY, WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF BLOCKADING ANY AND ALL SHIPS TRYING TO ENTER, OR LEAVE, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ: INFINITYHEDGE

TRUMP: ANY IRANIAN WHO FIRES AT US, OR AT PEACEFUL VESSELS, WILL BE BLOWN TO HELL

TRUMP: I HAVE ALSO INSTRUCTED OUR NAVY TO SEEK AND INTERDICT EVERY VESSEL IN INTERNATIONAL WATERS THAT HAS PAID A TOLL TO IRAN

TRUMP: ADDITIONALLY, AT AN APPROPRIATE MOMENT, WE ARE FULLY "LOCKED AND LOADED," AND OUR MILITARY WILL FINISH UP THE LITTLE THAT IS LEFT OF IRAN!