The fertility rate in San Francisco County is below 1.0. The TFR for Non Hispanic Whites in LA County (the largest county in terms of population in the country at 10 million) is ~1.0.

Very hard to see how South Korea can course correct in time. Despite its much ballyhooed demographic rally in 2025 (which pumped TFR back to a still horrible 0.80 from an abysmal 0.72) it seems to be in for a very rough ride going forward.

Its future seems to be one of significant demographic decline. This decline will speed up dramatically in the late 2030s and 2040s and the national population is almost certain to be back below 50 million by 2050 (the same population it had in 2010).

Southern Cone of South America a demographic mixed bag last year. Argentina likely slipped even further below 1.30 TFR, Uruguay was also a demographic disaster at ~1.15. Chile improved but only to a still horrible 1.10. Southern Brazil likely stayed ⬇️ 1.45. Paraguay no idea.

In the 30-34 age group in Spain an incredible 34.3% were born abroad…

The Vietnamese have staying power. They made it through a horrific famine in WWII that killed btwn 400K-2M. The first Indochina war of 1946-1954 which cost them 400K dead, the 2nd from 1955-1975 which cost 2M dead, & 3rd 1978-1991 with 105K KIA. & their TFR is still above 1.9!

They are demographically crushing Thailand & Malaysia, have a higher TFR than the Philippines, & are at basically the same level as Indonesian fertility (which seems headed for a crash based on marriage data).

https://x.com/annatar_i/status/2008828680550994421

Taiwan has spent the past 25 years in an impressive death spiral. Last year was one of the most dramatic. Only 107,000 births. That’s about 1/4 the number of births achieved during the baby boom period in the late 1950s and 1960s.

Birth rates of China, Japan, South Korea, & Taiwan are now all below 6.0 per 1,000 (with Taiwan even below 5.0!). Their fertility rates are ~0.72 Taiwan, ~0.80 for South Korea, ~0.95 for China, & ~1.12 for Japan. So much policy has been focused on turning this around & failed.

While South Korea & Japan will continue to attract Asian immigrants Thailand in for more of a struggle. Conflict with Cambodia has severely disrupted labor flow & general relations, future migration flow of Burmese uncertain, & Laos just does not have that many migrants to give.

Honestly think most Burmese migrants will be choosing higher pay and better opportunities in South Korea & Japan by the 2030s. Laotians will mostly be staying put (small numbers anyways), & Cambodians will also overwhelmingly choose developed Asian economies for migration.

The enormous demand for labor in ultra low fertility Thailand may be largely unfulfilled by 2035, exactly when massive numbers of Thais from the gigantic 1963-1983 cohort (which saw 1M+ births a year) start leaving the labor market & workers are needed the most.

South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, & Singapore will also likely absorb an annual 250,000 Indonesian migrants collectively by 2030 (just as Indonesian fertility collapses). China will try and suck up labor where they can & automate at a ferocious pace as well.

At the height of the Southern European/Mediterranean economic crisis (when unemployment was almost 20%) fertility rate in Spain was ~1.3, in Italy was close to 1.4, Greece 1.3, & Portugal 1.2. Today Spain is on ~1.1, Italy 1.13, Greece 1.23, PT 1.4. Unemployment today is near an all time low.

The TFR of the SNIFD countries has similarly declined. Thus it seems clear that falling TFR in Europe is independent of the unemployment rate. Culture across the world has shifted decisively away from one in which people view having a family as an essential part of life.