Kenya likely to be 2nd large 50M+Sub Saharan African country (after South Africa) to fall below replacement. Currently at ~3.0, Kenya’s fertility rate has fallen every year since 1967. If TFR falls to 2.75 by 2030 then there is pretty decent chance it will hit replacement ~2035.

The country is urbanizing & getting onto social media rapidly. The fertility rate of Nairobi is already ~2.5 according to several surveys. As more move there & get connected with global culture TFR will plummet. Same deal in other large Kenyan cities.

Rural fertility has already fallen considerably but for this forecast to be accurate Nairobi would be below 2.0 by 2030 & 1.5 by 2035 & 50% of the population would be urban in 2030 and 55% by 2035 (in line with estimates).

The other possible large African contender for sub replacement Sub Saharan African TFR by 2035 is Ethiopia (Addis Ababa already below replacement but national TFR is still ~3.8). I’m guessing it will still be ~2.4-2.5 by 2035 but remember replacement TFR in both is above 2.10.

This year I will be doing a lot more on Sub Saharan African population projections. Think their demographic future far smaller than most predictions. DR Congo in particular will stay far far below European population densities as will most SSA countries.

The biggest factor to consider in Sub Saharan African population projections is that they cannot take famines, wars, & the resulting demographic fallout, into account. I’m fairly certain a lot of these factors will be at play in the highest TFR Sahel countries of Niger & Mali.

Mali has around 24 million people & Niger ~25 million. They both face disastrous insurgencies & food+water insecurity. Unrealistic projections (on upside) have them at ~60M & 67.5M respectively by 2065. This won’t happen. Much lower when factoring in likely events.

Taiwanese births likely ~120,000 last year. Taiwan’s boom cohort from 1955-1966 saw ~400K births a year. It is unlikely we will even see 200K annual births again in Taiwan unless they raise their TFR from ~0.74 this year to at least 1.6 before 2035. That is extremely unlikely.

The fertility rate in San Francisco County is below 1.0. The TFR for Non Hispanic Whites in LA County (the largest county in terms of population in the country at 10 million) is ~1.0.

Very hard to see how South Korea can course correct in time. Despite its much ballyhooed demographic rally in 2025 (which pumped TFR back to a still horrible 0.80 from an abysmal 0.72) it seems to be in for a very rough ride going forward.

Its future seems to be one of significant demographic decline. This decline will speed up dramatically in the late 2030s and 2040s and the national population is almost certain to be back below 50 million by 2050 (the same population it had in 2010).

Southern Cone of South America a demographic mixed bag last year. Argentina likely slipped even further below 1.30 TFR, Uruguay was also a demographic disaster at ~1.15. Chile improved but only to a still horrible 1.10. Southern Brazil likely stayed ⬇️ 1.45. Paraguay no idea.

In the 30-34 age group in Spain an incredible 34.3% were born abroad…

The Vietnamese have staying power. They made it through a horrific famine in WWII that killed btwn 400K-2M. The first Indochina war of 1946-1954 which cost them 400K dead, the 2nd from 1955-1975 which cost 2M dead, & 3rd 1978-1991 with 105K KIA. & their TFR is still above 1.9!

They are demographically crushing Thailand & Malaysia, have a higher TFR than the Philippines, & are at basically the same level as Indonesian fertility (which seems headed for a crash based on marriage data).

https://x.com/annatar_i/status/2008828680550994421

Taiwan has spent the past 25 years in an impressive death spiral. Last year was one of the most dramatic. Only 107,000 births. That’s about 1/4 the number of births achieved during the baby boom period in the late 1950s and 1960s.