Country I’ll be paying most attention to in 2026 will be Hungary. There is a chance the tax changes will lead to a significant bump for a year or two. TFR will bounce back above this year’s ~1.3, that is almost certain. Hungary the country to watch.

In general I’m not a fan of financial pro natalism as it does not seem to cause sustained changes in the fertility rate but nevertheless am always willing to give things a second look in the face of convincing new data.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungarys-orban-launches-tax-exemption-mothers-cap-housing-loan-rates-2025-02-22/

In 2025 Vietnam ended the two child policy. Now families everywhere in the country face no restrictions on births & in some areas (like Saigon) authorities pay out baby bonuses. TFR is ~1.9. Better late than never but should never have had birth restrictions in the first place.

Still, Vietnam did well in avoiding Thailand (or even Latam) level demographic collapse. Next decade will be decisive. If they can keep TFR above 1.5 they will be golden.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/04/world/asia/vietnam-two-child-policy.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

🇹🇭👶 While Thailand saw minor improvement in their annual demographic situation in December,they still ended the year down almost 10% in terms of births. Their fertility rate also sank below 0.90. Labor from Cambodia has also largely ceased with hundreds of thousands returning home due to the border war.

Kenya likely to be 2nd large 50M+Sub Saharan African country (after South Africa) to fall below replacement. Currently at ~3.0, Kenya’s fertility rate has fallen every year since 1967. If TFR falls to 2.75 by 2030 then there is pretty decent chance it will hit replacement ~2035.

The country is urbanizing & getting onto social media rapidly. The fertility rate of Nairobi is already ~2.5 according to several surveys. As more move there & get connected with global culture TFR will plummet. Same deal in other large Kenyan cities.

Rural fertility has already fallen considerably but for this forecast to be accurate Nairobi would be below 2.0 by 2030 & 1.5 by 2035 & 50% of the population would be urban in 2030 and 55% by 2035 (in line with estimates).

The other possible large African contender for sub replacement Sub Saharan African TFR by 2035 is Ethiopia (Addis Ababa already below replacement but national TFR is still ~3.8). I’m guessing it will still be ~2.4-2.5 by 2035 but remember replacement TFR in both is above 2.10.

This year I will be doing a lot more on Sub Saharan African population projections. Think their demographic future far smaller than most predictions. DR Congo in particular will stay far far below European population densities as will most SSA countries.

The biggest factor to consider in Sub Saharan African population projections is that they cannot take famines, wars, & the resulting demographic fallout, into account. I’m fairly certain a lot of these factors will be at play in the highest TFR Sahel countries of Niger & Mali.

Mali has around 24 million people & Niger ~25 million. They both face disastrous insurgencies & food+water insecurity. Unrealistic projections (on upside) have them at ~60M & 67.5M respectively by 2065. This won’t happen. Much lower when factoring in likely events.

Taiwanese births likely ~120,000 last year. Taiwan’s boom cohort from 1955-1966 saw ~400K births a year. It is unlikely we will even see 200K annual births again in Taiwan unless they raise their TFR from ~0.74 this year to at least 1.6 before 2035. That is extremely unlikely.

The fertility rate in San Francisco County is below 1.0. The TFR for Non Hispanic Whites in LA County (the largest county in terms of population in the country at 10 million) is ~1.0.

Very hard to see how South Korea can course correct in time. Despite its much ballyhooed demographic rally in 2025 (which pumped TFR back to a still horrible 0.80 from an abysmal 0.72) it seems to be in for a very rough ride going forward.

Its future seems to be one of significant demographic decline. This decline will speed up dramatically in the late 2030s and 2040s and the national population is almost certain to be back below 50 million by 2050 (the same population it had in 2010).

Southern Cone of South America a demographic mixed bag last year. Argentina likely slipped even further below 1.30 TFR, Uruguay was also a demographic disaster at ~1.15. Chile improved but only to a still horrible 1.10. Southern Brazil likely stayed ⬇️ 1.45. Paraguay no idea.

In the 30-34 age group in Spain an incredible 34.3% were born abroad…