Interesting look at immigrant makeup by generation for FVEY countries. Starting with the US one can see that millennials are by far the most immigrant heavy generation followed by Gen X. This differs from Canada where all postwar generations bar Z are more than 1/5th immigrant.
Australia is even more heavily immigrant than Canada Gen X onwards. More than a third of Australian Millennials & a fifth of Australian Zoomers are immigrants. The source countries also changed dramatically from 1950s-1960s to today. From the European to the Asian continent.
Surprisingly the UK (at least according to their national statistics) has less immigrants as a portion of each generation than the U.S., Canada, or Australia. Not a single generation is more than a fifth immigrant in composition. This is interesting as immigration is arguably most center stage politically there.
Australia is even more heavily immigrant than Canada Gen X onwards. More than a third of Australian Millennials & a fifth of Australian Zoomers are immigrants. The source countries also changed dramatically from 1950s-1960s to today. From the European to the Asian continent.
Surprisingly the UK (at least according to their national statistics) has less immigrants as a portion of each generation than the U.S., Canada, or Australia. Not a single generation is more than a fifth immigrant in composition. This is interesting as immigration is arguably most center stage politically there.
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Iran’s interior minister is sounding the alarm on the country’s increasingly disastrous demographics. He stated that Iran’s population will fall below 40 million by 2101 if current trends continue calling it “a major catastrophe” for the Islamic Republic.
https://www.trend.az/iran/society/4135527.html
https://www.trend.az/iran/society/4135527.html
Trend
Iran's population could decline dramatically - Interior Minister
BAKU, Azerbaijan, December 27. Iran’s population could fall to fewer than 40 million by 2101 if current demographic trends continue, Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni said on December 27 at an event held in Tehran, Trend reports.
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Kenya likely to be 2nd large 50M+Sub Saharan African country (after South Africa) to fall below replacement. Currently at ~3.0, Kenya’s fertility rate has fallen every year since 1967. If TFR falls to 2.75 by 2030 then there is pretty decent chance it will hit replacement ~2035.
The country is urbanizing & getting onto social media rapidly. The fertility rate of Nairobi is already ~2.5 according to several surveys. As more move there & get connected with global culture TFR will plummet. Same deal in other large Kenyan cities.
Rural fertility has already fallen considerably but for this forecast to be accurate Nairobi would be below 2.0 by 2030 & 1.5 by 2035 & 50% of the population would be urban in 2030 and 55% by 2035 (in line with estimates).
The country is urbanizing & getting onto social media rapidly. The fertility rate of Nairobi is already ~2.5 according to several surveys. As more move there & get connected with global culture TFR will plummet. Same deal in other large Kenyan cities.
Rural fertility has already fallen considerably but for this forecast to be accurate Nairobi would be below 2.0 by 2030 & 1.5 by 2035 & 50% of the population would be urban in 2030 and 55% by 2035 (in line with estimates).
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Demographics Now and Then
Kenya likely to be 2nd large 50M+Sub Saharan African country (after South Africa) to fall below replacement. Currently at ~3.0, Kenya’s fertility rate has fallen every year since 1967. If TFR falls to 2.75 by 2030 then there is pretty decent chance it will…
The other possible large African contender for sub replacement Sub Saharan African TFR by 2035 is Ethiopia (Addis Ababa already below replacement but national TFR is still ~3.8). I’m guessing it will still be ~2.4-2.5 by 2035 but remember replacement TFR in both is above 2.10.
This year I will be doing a lot more on Sub Saharan African population projections. Think their demographic future far smaller than most predictions. DR Congo in particular will stay far far below European population densities as will most SSA countries.
This year I will be doing a lot more on Sub Saharan African population projections. Think their demographic future far smaller than most predictions. DR Congo in particular will stay far far below European population densities as will most SSA countries.
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Country I’ll be paying most attention to in 2026 will be Hungary. There is a chance the tax changes will lead to a significant bump for a year or two. TFR will bounce back above this year’s ~1.3, that is almost certain. Hungary the country to watch.
In general I’m not a fan of financial pro natalism as it does not seem to cause sustained changes in the fertility rate but nevertheless am always willing to give things a second look in the face of convincing new data.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungarys-orban-launches-tax-exemption-mothers-cap-housing-loan-rates-2025-02-22/
In general I’m not a fan of financial pro natalism as it does not seem to cause sustained changes in the fertility rate but nevertheless am always willing to give things a second look in the face of convincing new data.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungarys-orban-launches-tax-exemption-mothers-cap-housing-loan-rates-2025-02-22/
Reuters
Hungary's Orban launches tax exemption for mothers, cap on housing loan rates
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced an income tax exemption for mothers of two or three children and said he would cap interest rates on housing loans at 5% from April as part of moves to shore up the economy ahead of a 2026 national election.
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In 2025 Vietnam ended the two child policy. Now families everywhere in the country face no restrictions on births & in some areas (like Saigon) authorities pay out baby bonuses. TFR is ~1.9. Better late than never but should never have had birth restrictions in the first place.
Still, Vietnam did well in avoiding Thailand (or even Latam) level demographic collapse. Next decade will be decisive. If they can keep TFR above 1.5 they will be golden.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/04/world/asia/vietnam-two-child-policy.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
Still, Vietnam did well in avoiding Thailand (or even Latam) level demographic collapse. Next decade will be decisive. If they can keep TFR above 1.5 they will be golden.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/04/world/asia/vietnam-two-child-policy.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
NY Times
Facing a Demographic Shift, Vietnam Abolishes Two-Child Policy
Even though the regulation was loosely enforced, the nation’s birthrate fell to a record low last year.
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🇹🇭👶 While Thailand saw minor improvement in their annual demographic situation in December,they still ended the year down almost 10% in terms of births. Their fertility rate also sank below 0.90. Labor from Cambodia has also largely ceased with hundreds of thousands returning home due to the border war.
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Kenya likely to be 2nd large 50M+Sub Saharan African country (after South Africa) to fall below replacement. Currently at ~3.0, Kenya’s fertility rate has fallen every year since 1967. If TFR falls to 2.75 by 2030 then there is pretty decent chance it will hit replacement ~2035.
The country is urbanizing & getting onto social media rapidly. The fertility rate of Nairobi is already ~2.5 according to several surveys. As more move there & get connected with global culture TFR will plummet. Same deal in other large Kenyan cities.
Rural fertility has already fallen considerably but for this forecast to be accurate Nairobi would be below 2.0 by 2030 & 1.5 by 2035 & 50% of the population would be urban in 2030 and 55% by 2035 (in line with estimates).
The country is urbanizing & getting onto social media rapidly. The fertility rate of Nairobi is already ~2.5 according to several surveys. As more move there & get connected with global culture TFR will plummet. Same deal in other large Kenyan cities.
Rural fertility has already fallen considerably but for this forecast to be accurate Nairobi would be below 2.0 by 2030 & 1.5 by 2035 & 50% of the population would be urban in 2030 and 55% by 2035 (in line with estimates).
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Demographics Now and Then
Kenya likely to be 2nd large 50M+Sub Saharan African country (after South Africa) to fall below replacement. Currently at ~3.0, Kenya’s fertility rate has fallen every year since 1967. If TFR falls to 2.75 by 2030 then there is pretty decent chance it will…
The other possible large African contender for sub replacement Sub Saharan African TFR by 2035 is Ethiopia (Addis Ababa already below replacement but national TFR is still ~3.8). I’m guessing it will still be ~2.4-2.5 by 2035 but remember replacement TFR in both is above 2.10.
This year I will be doing a lot more on Sub Saharan African population projections. Think their demographic future far smaller than most predictions. DR Congo in particular will stay far far below European population densities as will most SSA countries.
This year I will be doing a lot more on Sub Saharan African population projections. Think their demographic future far smaller than most predictions. DR Congo in particular will stay far far below European population densities as will most SSA countries.
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The biggest factor to consider in Sub Saharan African population projections is that they cannot take famines, wars, & the resulting demographic fallout, into account. I’m fairly certain a lot of these factors will be at play in the highest TFR Sahel countries of Niger & Mali.
Mali has around 24 million people & Niger ~25 million. They both face disastrous insurgencies & food+water insecurity. Unrealistic projections (on upside) have them at ~60M & 67.5M respectively by 2065. This won’t happen. Much lower when factoring in likely events.
Mali has around 24 million people & Niger ~25 million. They both face disastrous insurgencies & food+water insecurity. Unrealistic projections (on upside) have them at ~60M & 67.5M respectively by 2065. This won’t happen. Much lower when factoring in likely events.
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The US is set to have more births than the EU for the second year in a row. This will significantly impact economic power dynamics as the EU’s working‑age population shrinks & gets older faster while the US maintains positive demographic momentum longer.
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War in Ukraine costs Russian ethnic minorities+rural Russians dearly. Tuva Republic saw 54.32 war deaths per 10,000 working age men, Buryatia 39.69, & Altai Republic 28. Tuvans & Buryats very overrepresented in casualty %s. Rural Russians in places like Magadan also hit hard.
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In 1961 Angola’s poor, sparsely populated condition opened the door to mass colonial settlement. From 1945-1961 1,000 Portuguese settlers arrived monthly. Each immigrant family received a house, livestock, seed, & up to 425 acres of land from the Portuguese colonial government.
Looking at country profiles of a country the size of Angola from early 1960s is like seeing an Angola from another world. A massive country twice the size of France had only 5 million people. Today Angola still has a population far less than France despite being much larger. Angola will likely never have even the same population density.
Looking at country profiles of a country the size of Angola from early 1960s is like seeing an Angola from another world. A massive country twice the size of France had only 5 million people. Today Angola still has a population far less than France despite being much larger. Angola will likely never have even the same population density.
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