The US is forecast to see more deaths than births (aka enter natural decline) by 2033.  This is also based on a middle of the road scenario where we don’t see a crash in the US fertility rate.

Buenos Aires province~40% of Argentina’s population. As it collapses so does the demographics of Argentina. To compare Seoul ~21% of South Korea’s population & greater Seoul is 50%. Huge greater capital regions apocalyptic TFR destroys national TFR (though Busan worst in ROK).

IFS survey clearly shows conservatives aged 25-35 are FAR more likely to be parents than liberal peers. It also shows an increase in liberalism amongst women in that young age range. But only ~36% not majority. So even if liberal TFR falls to 1.0 hardly demographic armageddon.

It seems that you get the most juice for your pro natalist squeeze convincing those with 2+ kids to have another than you get convincing a couple with none to have one. If the U.S. adopts more robust pro natal strategies perhaps that should be taken into account.

BUT given the recent (a joke here as it’s past 25 years) government spending largesse eventually there will be market pushback to mass spending & any pro natalist initiatives put forward by an outgoing administration will likely be the first to go in a new one dedicated to cuts.

Also who knows how much pro natalist spending actually helps (based on my observations not a whole lot). The problem is cultural & any solution will be as well.

The Silent Generation (born from 1928-1945) is in the process of disintegration.  Almost extinct by 2035. That generation in the United States will fall from ~11,800,000 today to ~200,000 by 2035. Interestingly the Silent Generation was last gigantic one in Russia due to the impact of the Second World War on post 1945 generations.

Interesting look at immigrant makeup by generation for FVEY countries. Starting with the US one can see that millennials are by far the most immigrant heavy generation followed by Gen X. This differs from Canada where all postwar generations bar Z are more than 1/5th immigrant.

Australia is even more heavily immigrant than Canada Gen X onwards. More than a third of Australian Millennials & a fifth of Australian Zoomers are immigrants. The source countries also changed dramatically from 1950s-1960s to today. From the European to the Asian continent.

Surprisingly the UK (at least according to their national statistics) has less immigrants as a portion of each generation than the U.S., Canada, or Australia. Not a single generation is more than a fifth immigrant in composition. This is interesting as immigration is arguably most center stage politically there.