The Lookout (Twitter)
6/13
For the sake of the discussion, here is when enemy merchant vessels can be considered military objectives and thus targetable.
Blockades are legal, but without a Navy, impossible to enforce. Russia will also likely struggle enforcing a legal blockade for the Danube traffic
6/13
For the sake of the discussion, here is when enemy merchant vessels can be considered military objectives and thus targetable.
Blockades are legal, but without a Navy, impossible to enforce. Russia will also likely struggle enforcing a legal blockade for the Danube traffic
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The Lookout (Twitter)
7/13
Escalation potential:
The possible Russian reaction is another important concern and on this, the Ukrainian perspective may differ from mine and others in the West.
Escalation potential and risks can also influence international support for Ukraine.
7/13
Escalation potential:
The possible Russian reaction is another important concern and on this, the Ukrainian perspective may differ from mine and others in the West.
Escalation potential and risks can also influence international support for Ukraine.
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The Lookout (Twitter)
8/13
Rus hasn't yet attacked shipping following their declaration and I was surprised Ukraine struck first, even if one can argue in the case of Sig it was a lawful target.
If Russia starts attacking ships bound for the Danube or the Danube anchorage, escalation risks increases.
8/13
Rus hasn't yet attacked shipping following their declaration and I was surprised Ukraine struck first, even if one can argue in the case of Sig it was a lawful target.
If Russia starts attacking ships bound for the Danube or the Danube anchorage, escalation risks increases.
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The Lookout (Twitter)
9/13
Yes, neutral shipping was attacked by Russia in the initial phase, but one doesn't have hand them the excuse to do it at scale.
Also, geography matters. Attacking neutral ships international waters, prehaps just off NATO countries is different than off Odessa in Feb '22.
9/13
Yes, neutral shipping was attacked by Russia in the initial phase, but one doesn't have hand them the excuse to do it at scale.
Also, geography matters. Attacking neutral ships international waters, prehaps just off NATO countries is different than off Odessa in Feb '22.
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The Lookout (Twitter)
10/13
I have argued against the idea of NATO escorting shipping in the Black Sea because of the risk involved.
Starting a dynamic that may force a decision on this issue (unrestricted warfare), could lead to something uncontrollable.
10/13
I have argued against the idea of NATO escorting shipping in the Black Sea because of the risk involved.
Starting a dynamic that may force a decision on this issue (unrestricted warfare), could lead to something uncontrollable.
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The Lookout (Twitter)
11/13
Russian Shahed attacks close to the Romanian border are risky enough. But, as long as ships sail, damage to ports can be repaired and at least some Ukrainian export maintained.
If Russia starts going after ships, this may well close down this traffic for the duration too.
11/13
Russian Shahed attacks close to the Romanian border are risky enough. But, as long as ships sail, damage to ports can be repaired and at least some Ukrainian export maintained.
If Russia starts going after ships, this may well close down this traffic for the duration too.
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The Lookout (Twitter)
12/13
So to sum up so far:
If Ukr actions triggers a slide into unrestricted naval warfare in the Black Sea, they put their international support at risk.
The Rus reaction could increase the risk of horizontal escalation. While this rests on Russia, it can't be ignored.
12/13
So to sum up so far:
If Ukr actions triggers a slide into unrestricted naval warfare in the Black Sea, they put their international support at risk.
The Rus reaction could increase the risk of horizontal escalation. While this rests on Russia, it can't be ignored.
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The Lookout (Twitter)
13/13
I have argued for a long time for giving Ukraine the tools they say they need, with no caveats on hitting military targets in Russia proper. Keyword: military targets.
I do hope my concerns are unwarranted, but I find this subject too important to not speak up.
13/13
I have argued for a long time for giving Ukraine the tools they say they need, with no caveats on hitting military targets in Russia proper. Keyword: military targets.
I do hope my concerns are unwarranted, but I find this subject too important to not speak up.
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Necro Mancer (Twitter)
Знатный боец культурного фронта, специалист по учёту музейных ценностей Третьяковской галереи Поленов Владислав Алексеевич 1990г.р. был чмобилизован в конце сентября 2022 и практически сразу напрочь потерялся. А теперь вот нашёлся https://t.co/6xHbbfhKaH #всрф #потерьнет #груз200
Знатный боец культурного фронта, специалист по учёту музейных ценностей Третьяковской галереи Поленов Владислав Алексеевич 1990г.р. был чмобилизован в конце сентября 2022 и практически сразу напрочь потерялся. А теперь вот нашёлся https://t.co/6xHbbfhKaH #всрф #потерьнет #груз200
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Necro Mancer (Twitter)
RT @VasyaMakeevskiy: #Макіївка 22:03 якісь бабахи 4 рази потім серія бахів тихіше
RT @VasyaMakeevskiy: #Макіївка 22:03 якісь бабахи 4 рази потім серія бахів тихіше
The Lookout (Twitter)
@STRATMIL If I was in Ukraine, my target list would start with Sparta IV and Pizhma, then Sig and Yaz.
If was wise going after Sig now is another matter.
@STRATMIL If I was in Ukraine, my target list would start with Sparta IV and Pizhma, then Sig and Yaz.
If was wise going after Sig now is another matter.
Necro Mancer (Twitter)
RT @alex_bezfam: Донецк. 22:02. Толи обстрел города, центр, толи ПВО орковское что то сбивает. Но походу что-то падало.
RT @alex_bezfam: Донецк. 22:02. Толи обстрел города, центр, толи ПВО орковское что то сбивает. Но походу что-то падало.