Necro Mancer (Twitter)
RT @sinicynr: Crusaders Firm (Волинь Луцьк) vs Union (Спартак, Москва)
Перемога перших)
RT @sinicynr: Crusaders Firm (Волинь Луцьк) vs Union (Спартак, Москва)
Перемога перших)
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Necro Mancer (Twitter)
#Приютное, результаты российской контратаки https://t.co/nC2lPqNtRo #всрф #потерьнет
#Приютное, результаты российской контратаки https://t.co/nC2lPqNtRo #всрф #потерьнет
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Necro Mancer (Twitter)
Будем всех бомбить (да-да, и тебя тоже, чувак) https://t.co/fvLJ1BvHuV #RussianUkrainianWar
Будем всех бомбить (да-да, и тебя тоже, чувак) https://t.co/fvLJ1BvHuV #RussianUkrainianWar
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The Lookout (Twitter)
1/13
Thread explaining my concerns.
To those who get riled up, I did say I understand the Ukrainian reasoning, but there are risks to consider, hence why I said I hope there's a good plan behind this.
Key concern: A slide into unrestricted naval warfare in the Black Sea.
1/13
Thread explaining my concerns.
To those who get riled up, I did say I understand the Ukrainian reasoning, but there are risks to consider, hence why I said I hope there's a good plan behind this.
Key concern: A slide into unrestricted naval warfare in the Black Sea.
Twitter
1/13
Thread explaining my concerns.
To those who get riled up, I did say I understand the Ukrainian reasoning, but there are risks to consider, hence why I said I hope there's a good plan behind this.
Key concern: A slide into unrestricted naval warfare…
Thread explaining my concerns.
To those who get riled up, I did say I understand the Ukrainian reasoning, but there are risks to consider, hence why I said I hope there's a good plan behind this.
Key concern: A slide into unrestricted naval warfare…
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The Lookout (Twitter)
2/13
I believe today's NAVWARN and the attack on Sig, should be seen in light of this statement from the Ukrainian MOD around July 20th.
It was issued after the Russian declaration, likely in response, with a ominously similar message.
2/13
I believe today's NAVWARN and the attack on Sig, should be seen in light of this statement from the Ukrainian MOD around July 20th.
It was issued after the Russian declaration, likely in response, with a ominously similar message.
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The Lookout (Twitter)
3/13
Trying to restrict merchant ship traffic to Russian Black Sea ports could have an impact on the Russian economy, reducing their war sustaining capabilities
I see this as the primary Ukrainian rationale, but without a traditional navy, one quickly encounters legal challenges
3/13
Trying to restrict merchant ship traffic to Russian Black Sea ports could have an impact on the Russian economy, reducing their war sustaining capabilities
I see this as the primary Ukrainian rationale, but without a traditional navy, one quickly encounters legal challenges
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The Lookout (Twitter)
4/13
Bringing up legal aspects isn't about "sitting on moral high ground in a peaceful country". The laws of war are what prevents us all from becoming barbarians.
If Ukraine goes beyond the laws of war, this could backfire politically.
4/13
Bringing up legal aspects isn't about "sitting on moral high ground in a peaceful country". The laws of war are what prevents us all from becoming barbarians.
If Ukraine goes beyond the laws of war, this could backfire politically.
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The Lookout (Twitter)
5/13
Continued and strong international support is vital for Ukraine.
If this campaign devolves into indiscriminate attacks on Russian merchant ships, this might put that support at risk.
This doesn't have to happen, but one should be aware of the risk.
5/13
Continued and strong international support is vital for Ukraine.
If this campaign devolves into indiscriminate attacks on Russian merchant ships, this might put that support at risk.
This doesn't have to happen, but one should be aware of the risk.
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The Lookout (Twitter)
6/13
For the sake of the discussion, here is when enemy merchant vessels can be considered military objectives and thus targetable.
Blockades are legal, but without a Navy, impossible to enforce. Russia will also likely struggle enforcing a legal blockade for the Danube traffic
6/13
For the sake of the discussion, here is when enemy merchant vessels can be considered military objectives and thus targetable.
Blockades are legal, but without a Navy, impossible to enforce. Russia will also likely struggle enforcing a legal blockade for the Danube traffic
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The Lookout (Twitter)
7/13
Escalation potential:
The possible Russian reaction is another important concern and on this, the Ukrainian perspective may differ from mine and others in the West.
Escalation potential and risks can also influence international support for Ukraine.
7/13
Escalation potential:
The possible Russian reaction is another important concern and on this, the Ukrainian perspective may differ from mine and others in the West.
Escalation potential and risks can also influence international support for Ukraine.
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The Lookout (Twitter)
8/13
Rus hasn't yet attacked shipping following their declaration and I was surprised Ukraine struck first, even if one can argue in the case of Sig it was a lawful target.
If Russia starts attacking ships bound for the Danube or the Danube anchorage, escalation risks increases.
8/13
Rus hasn't yet attacked shipping following their declaration and I was surprised Ukraine struck first, even if one can argue in the case of Sig it was a lawful target.
If Russia starts attacking ships bound for the Danube or the Danube anchorage, escalation risks increases.
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The Lookout (Twitter)
9/13
Yes, neutral shipping was attacked by Russia in the initial phase, but one doesn't have hand them the excuse to do it at scale.
Also, geography matters. Attacking neutral ships international waters, prehaps just off NATO countries is different than off Odessa in Feb '22.
9/13
Yes, neutral shipping was attacked by Russia in the initial phase, but one doesn't have hand them the excuse to do it at scale.
Also, geography matters. Attacking neutral ships international waters, prehaps just off NATO countries is different than off Odessa in Feb '22.
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The Lookout (Twitter)
10/13
I have argued against the idea of NATO escorting shipping in the Black Sea because of the risk involved.
Starting a dynamic that may force a decision on this issue (unrestricted warfare), could lead to something uncontrollable.
10/13
I have argued against the idea of NATO escorting shipping in the Black Sea because of the risk involved.
Starting a dynamic that may force a decision on this issue (unrestricted warfare), could lead to something uncontrollable.
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The Lookout (Twitter)
11/13
Russian Shahed attacks close to the Romanian border are risky enough. But, as long as ships sail, damage to ports can be repaired and at least some Ukrainian export maintained.
If Russia starts going after ships, this may well close down this traffic for the duration too.
11/13
Russian Shahed attacks close to the Romanian border are risky enough. But, as long as ships sail, damage to ports can be repaired and at least some Ukrainian export maintained.
If Russia starts going after ships, this may well close down this traffic for the duration too.
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The Lookout (Twitter)
12/13
So to sum up so far:
If Ukr actions triggers a slide into unrestricted naval warfare in the Black Sea, they put their international support at risk.
The Rus reaction could increase the risk of horizontal escalation. While this rests on Russia, it can't be ignored.
12/13
So to sum up so far:
If Ukr actions triggers a slide into unrestricted naval warfare in the Black Sea, they put their international support at risk.
The Rus reaction could increase the risk of horizontal escalation. While this rests on Russia, it can't be ignored.
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The Lookout (Twitter)
13/13
I have argued for a long time for giving Ukraine the tools they say they need, with no caveats on hitting military targets in Russia proper. Keyword: military targets.
I do hope my concerns are unwarranted, but I find this subject too important to not speak up.
13/13
I have argued for a long time for giving Ukraine the tools they say they need, with no caveats on hitting military targets in Russia proper. Keyword: military targets.
I do hope my concerns are unwarranted, but I find this subject too important to not speak up.
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