‌Rob Lee (Twitter)

The timeline doesn't really fit:
March 2021: Russia begins buildup near Ukraine, including units from Siberia that would not return
April: Biden announces AFG withdrawal
August 3rd: First reports of new BARS reserve system (decision likely made in July)
August 15: Kabul falls
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@MMazarr:
But: though frequently exaggerated, credibility is a thing. Lots of credible reports suggest Putin saw US flight from Afghanistan (not that we should have stayed!) as evidence that it wouldn't respond in Ukraine. Khrushchev put missiles in Cuba partly b/c he read JFK as weak https://t.co/fWs5EDTs6e

Rob Lee (Twitter)

That doesn't mean the AFG withdrawal had no effect, but Russia's leadership likely decided to make all preparations for the invasion in July.

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Putin thought it would be easy and there would be minimal resistance. Hard to deter a leader with such a fundamentally incorrect understanding of the situation.

Rob Lee (Twitter)

RT @WarintheFuture: Recently, there has been discussion about the strategic and political importance of the Ukrainian offensives that are likely to be launched in the coming weeks or months. The focus of these articles has often been about the consequences of failure. 1/25 🧵 https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1651728308940447745/photo/1

Rob Lee (Twitter)

@lawrencema1985c Yes, but the Biden admin said it would review that. Either way, the argument is that the *way* the withdrawal occurred was the factor, not that the US decided to withdraw.

Rob Lee (Twitter)

I don't think the US could have deterred a Russian invasion short of deploying troops to defend Ukraine. No President in recent history would have done that, so I don't think the Afghanistan withdrawal was that significant in influencing Putin's calculus.

Def Mon (Twitter)

@DNikolaysen @Christo88244457 Im pretty sure they would prefer to kill them with artillery if they could.

Status-6 (Twitter)

RT @nktpnd: US official: "I'll be crystal clear: there is no vision of returning US tactical or any other kind of nuclear weapon to the Korean Peninsula as there was during the Cold War."

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

Map of Ukrainian Forces 🇺🇦 crossing the Dnipro River in Kherson

ISW previously reported that Ukrainian Forces established positions North of Oleshky on some of the islands

As of today, at least 6 large islands are partially contested as both sides conduct air strikes on them

IgorGirkin (Twitter)

RT @Faytuks: #UPDATE: Nationwide air raid alert in Ukraine. Explosions reported in Poltava region and missiles noted over Kyiv region and elsewhere. https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1651758467038822402/photo/1

IgorGirkin (Twitter)

RT @Faytuks: NOW: Ukrainian sources report that a russian missile has hit a high-rise building in Uman, Cherkasy oblast. Casualties feared. https://twitter.com/Iren89501619/status/1651773600427393027/video/1

4emberlen (Twitter)

RT @Faytuks: #UPDATE: Ukrainian sources reports that a russian missile has hit a high-rise building in Uman, Cherkasy oblast. Emergency services are responding. Fears that many people have been injured and killed. https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1651781649267343360 https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1651781649267343360/video/1

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

Авдеевское направление: лучший снайпер - это танк https://tttttt.me/extreme_tourism_company/82 #всу #RussianUkrainianWar