Rob Lee (Twitter)
Ukraine will not have air superiority, will face stronger Russian defenses than it did in Kharkiv, and will likely only be able to achieve localized superiority in artillery fire and forces. To gives its offensive the best chance for success, Kyiv needs to husband its resources.
Ukraine will not have air superiority, will face stronger Russian defenses than it did in Kharkiv, and will likely only be able to achieve localized superiority in artillery fire and forces. To gives its offensive the best chance for success, Kyiv needs to husband its resources.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
There is no risk-free option for Ukraine. Retrograde operations are dangerous, withdrawing from Bakhmut could lead to more pressure on Siversk or elsewhere, and there is no guarantee Ukraine would be able to retake the city later if it withdraws.
There is no risk-free option for Ukraine. Retrograde operations are dangerous, withdrawing from Bakhmut could lead to more pressure on Siversk or elsewhere, and there is no guarantee Ukraine would be able to retake the city later if it withdraws.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
But there is a risk that, by committing the necessary forces to continue holding Bakhmut (where its attrition ratio isn't favorable), Ukraine will sap some of the forces available for its strategically more important spring offensive. https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/russias-wagner-troops-exhaust-ukrainian-forces-in-bakhmut-b58e726c
But there is a risk that, by committing the necessary forces to continue holding Bakhmut (where its attrition ratio isn't favorable), Ukraine will sap some of the forces available for its strategically more important spring offensive. https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/russias-wagner-troops-exhaust-ukrainian-forces-in-bakhmut-b58e726c
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Another risk is that Russian forces will continue to press to the west to try to seize high ground north of Chasiv Yar, which is defensible terrain for holding Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Encirclement is also a risk.
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@DefMon3:
Bakhmut
This image shows the difference in the RU forward lines (dashed) between Orange: March 10th and Red: March 19th. https://t.co/zsTrUwwvmP
Another risk is that Russian forces will continue to press to the west to try to seize high ground north of Chasiv Yar, which is defensible terrain for holding Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Encirclement is also a risk.
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@DefMon3:
Bakhmut
This image shows the difference in the RU forward lines (dashed) between Orange: March 10th and Red: March 19th. https://t.co/zsTrUwwvmP
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Encircling Bakhmut is Russia's best opportunity to inflict a serious defeat on Ukraine. The VDV's 106th Airborne Division has taken on a greater role, and the Russian MoD will likely prioritize cutting off the remaining MRSs by committing more resources.
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@wartranslated:
Update on Bakhmut from the Ukrainian correspondent Yuriy Butusov (https://t.co/0ILhY32A6A):
"The situation in Bakhmut
Ukrainian forces hold most of the city, including the center. Although some of our units were withdrawn from the city, this is more a matter of rotation and not… https://t.co/2TTrqqDkH2
Encircling Bakhmut is Russia's best opportunity to inflict a serious defeat on Ukraine. The VDV's 106th Airborne Division has taken on a greater role, and the Russian MoD will likely prioritize cutting off the remaining MRSs by committing more resources.
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@wartranslated:
Update on Bakhmut from the Ukrainian correspondent Yuriy Butusov (https://t.co/0ILhY32A6A):
"The situation in Bakhmut
Ukrainian forces hold most of the city, including the center. Although some of our units were withdrawn from the city, this is more a matter of rotation and not… https://t.co/2TTrqqDkH2
Rob Lee (Twitter)
The mud season has now begun, which could complicate a withdrawal or reinforcement, particularly if Russian forces advance closer to the O0506 hardball road. This could limit the use of wheeled vehicles.
The mud season has now begun, which could complicate a withdrawal or reinforcement, particularly if Russian forces advance closer to the O0506 hardball road. This could limit the use of wheeled vehicles.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
As in Mariupol and countless other battles, Ukrainian forces have defended bravely and inflicted heavy losses on Russian forces in Bakhmut, which will likely aid Ukraine’s spring offensive. But the conditions have worsened over the past month.
As in Mariupol and countless other battles, Ukrainian forces have defended bravely and inflicted heavy losses on Russian forces in Bakhmut, which will likely aid Ukraine’s spring offensive. But the conditions have worsened over the past month.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
What should Ukraine do? I don’t know. It isn’t a black and white issue and there is uncertainty. Russia may overextend itself trying to take the city and leave itself vulnerable to counterattack. It is ultimately a question of where Ukraine chooses to assume risk.
What should Ukraine do? I don’t know. It isn’t a black and white issue and there is uncertainty. Russia may overextend itself trying to take the city and leave itself vulnerable to counterattack. It is ultimately a question of where Ukraine chooses to assume risk.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Just as the strategic consequences of Russia's offensive in the Donbas in the spring and summer wasn't fully clear until after Ukraine's offensives in the fall, it probably won't be clear whether the continued defense of Bakhmut was the right move until after Ukraine's offensive.
Just as the strategic consequences of Russia's offensive in the Donbas in the spring and summer wasn't fully clear until after Ukraine's offensives in the fall, it probably won't be clear whether the continued defense of Bakhmut was the right move until after Ukraine's offensive.
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Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)
@WarMonitors Russia: B-52 was armed with nuclear bombs ready to bomb Moscow
@WarMonitors Russia: B-52 was armed with nuclear bombs ready to bomb Moscow
4emberlen (Twitter)
RT @Tatarigami_UA: Few updates and summarized thoughts on the frontline.
🧵Thread
1/ The russian military continues to deploy fresh personnel and equipment across the frontlines, primarily for the purpose of replacing losses. However, it seems that their combat value continuous to decrease https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1637877591041343488/photo/1
RT @Tatarigami_UA: Few updates and summarized thoughts on the frontline.
🧵Thread
1/ The russian military continues to deploy fresh personnel and equipment across the frontlines, primarily for the purpose of replacing losses. However, it seems that their combat value continuous to decrease https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1637877591041343488/photo/1
Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)
@nexta_tv Because she mainly speaks out against Western Energy pushing those countries to be more reliant on Russia and China, who don't care at all about the harm they’re doing to Earth while never protesting against Russian oil and OPEC. Here’s her displaying that
https://youtu.be/aMK3aae9cU0
@nexta_tv Because she mainly speaks out against Western Energy pushing those countries to be more reliant on Russia and China, who don't care at all about the harm they’re doing to Earth while never protesting against Russian oil and OPEC. Here’s her displaying that
https://youtu.be/aMK3aae9cU0
YouTube
Why does Greta Thunberg never protest against Saudi Arabian or Russian oil production?
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Rebel News: Telling the other side of the story. https://www.RebelNews.com for more…
Rebel News: Telling the other side of the story. https://www.RebelNews.com for more…
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