Dan (Twitter)

RT @IAPonomarenko: February 23, 2022 — Russia’s invasion in Ukraine imminent, U.S. intel says.
March 9, 2022 — Russia’s sovereign default imminent, Fitch says.

 Status-6 (Twitter)

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@phildstewart:
BREAKING - Pentagon response to Poland's proposal on jets: "We will continue to consult with Poland and our other NATO allies about this issue and the difficult logistical challenges it presents, but we do not believe Poland’s proposal is a tenable one.”

 Rob Lee (Twitter)

Russia has made it clear that Ukrainian membership in the EU would be a red line (that's what drove the Maidan), as are a number of domestic policies it is pursuing. There was no recent movement for Ukrainian membership in NATO, which means it is a poor explanation for this war.
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@GrayConnolly:
West will have allowed Ukraine to be brutally mauled rather than settle this with Russia in a manner that everyone could literally live with esp a Ukraine in EU not NATO. I struggle to understand why this could not have been negotiated when *no one in NATO* wanted Ukraine in NATO

Rob Lee (Twitter)

@arcivanov Yes, but it locks in Ukraine's orientation away from Russia and would limit future Russian influence.

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Even if NATO had declared Ukraine would never join, that would not have stopped this war. This was also driven by Ukraine's political orientation and Russia losing influence. Putin even said that Ukraine would present a threat even if it didn't join NATO. 2/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Again, you can track comments from Putin and senior Russian officials over the past two years to see how the rhetoric shifted, largely in response to policies Zelensky pursued. Putin devoted an entire security council meeting to Ukraine in May after Viktor Medvedchuk's arrest. 3/

 Rob Lee (Twitter)

Thread on Russia's issues with the EU. 4/
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@samagreene:
The inconvenient truth of the present crisis is that behind all the rhetoric about NATO, Moscow's beef is fundamentally with the EU. https://t.co/taWhJV0sqS

Rob Lee (Twitter)

It is important to note that this is a problem of Moscow's making. By removing the three most pro-Russia voting regions in Ukraine in 2014, Moscow forever altered Ukraine's political orientation and there wasn't much support for joining NATO before then. 5/

Идзанаги 🇺🇦 🇰🇿 (Twitter)

RT @juliaioffe: Yo-Yo Ma, along with Emanuel Ax and Leonidas Kavakos, begins his performance at Washington’s Kennedy Center with a performance of Ukraine’s national anthem. A full, standing house. https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1501004560181121025/video/1

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Earlier NATO expansion did play a role because it made Ukraine's political orientation more important to Russia. A hostile Ukraine meant that nearly all of Russia's western border is with non-friendly countries. But the risk of Ukraine joining NATO was not the proximate cause. 6/

MotolkoHelp (Twitter)

03:09 (Minsk time)
Su-35S took off from the airfield in Baranavichy (Brest region).

Rob Lee (Twitter)

@PatPorter76 That's true, but there were several domestic Ukrainian policies, such as relegating the role of the Russian language, which Moscow considered unacceptable, as well as requiring the implementation of the Minsk agreements. My point is that there wasn't an easy fix for the US/EU.

 Rob Lee (Twitter)

The 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment was recently reformed in Kamyshin and its tank battalion came from the VDV's 56th Air Assault Brigade, along with Agarkov, which was transferred into a regiment and moved to Fedosia. Agarkov was a career VDV officer. 2/
https://bmpd.livejournal.com/4480020.html

Идзанаги 🇺🇦 🇰🇿 (Twitter)

@RALee85
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@666_mancer:
Полковник, между прочим, был, а не хер собачий https://t.co/6s06Fu9QT4 #Агарков #потерьнет #груз200 #всрф https://t.co/wnBaI16MF5

 Rob Lee (Twitter)

2/
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@trbrtc:
New radar satellite imagery of Vinnytsia Airport in western Ukraine shows damage to air traffic control towers and an aircraft — but no apparent damage to the runway, similar to other airfields targeted by the Russian military. https://t.co/A9SyoiDUfy