Rob Lee (Twitter)
So I can't make a high-confidence prediction, but Ukraine has a number of advantages pursuing a campaign in Kherson. It may not have an overall advantage in artillery and armor, but it likely does in Kherson and certainly in tactical engagements when it masses them. 7/
So I can't make a high-confidence prediction, but Ukraine has a number of advantages pursuing a campaign in Kherson. It may not have an overall advantage in artillery and armor, but it likely does in Kherson and certainly in tactical engagements when it masses them. 7/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Russia depended on a significant advantage in artillery rounds fired in the Donbas. Russia can resupply its forces across the Dnipro with ferries, but it likely can't deliver enough artillery ammunition and other heavy equipment if Ukrainian leans heavily on artillery. 8/
Russia depended on a significant advantage in artillery rounds fired in the Donbas. Russia can resupply its forces across the Dnipro with ferries, but it likely can't deliver enough artillery ammunition and other heavy equipment if Ukrainian leans heavily on artillery. 8/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Russia will also have difficulty deploying reserves across the river. Kyiv has advantages in Kherson and will likely achieve successes, but without a solid understanding of force ratios, equipment, # of well-trained Ukrainian units, etc., it is hard to predict how much or when.9/
Russia will also have difficulty deploying reserves across the river. Kyiv has advantages in Kherson and will likely achieve successes, but without a solid understanding of force ratios, equipment, # of well-trained Ukrainian units, etc., it is hard to predict how much or when.9/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
So I don't know how much terrain Ukraine will be able to take back this month, but, when we look at the medium-to-long-term, I think manpower issues will become a greater problem for Russia and Ukraine can make Russia's occupation efforts more costly and less sustainable. 10/
So I don't know how much terrain Ukraine will be able to take back this month, but, when we look at the medium-to-long-term, I think manpower issues will become a greater problem for Russia and Ukraine can make Russia's occupation efforts more costly and less sustainable. 10/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Russia's force in Ukraine depends on volunteers who signed 3 or 6 month contracts. Will they sign another contract? Can Russia keep meeting its manpower needs without mobilization? I don't know, but I have a feeling many volunteers won't want to spend the winter in a trench. 11/
Russia's force in Ukraine depends on volunteers who signed 3 or 6 month contracts. Will they sign another contract? Can Russia keep meeting its manpower needs without mobilization? I don't know, but I have a feeling many volunteers won't want to spend the winter in a trench. 11/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
The 3rd Army Corps deployment will give Russia new forces to occupy frontage. It is more likely its deployment will make a Ukrainian offensive more difficult than facilitating a Russian offensive. But will its battalions with 6 month contract volunteers exist by February? 12/
The 3rd Army Corps deployment will give Russia new forces to occupy frontage. It is more likely its deployment will make a Ukrainian offensive more difficult than facilitating a Russian offensive. But will its battalions with 6 month contract volunteers exist by February? 12/
Necro Mancer (Twitter)
ВСУ поймали зека-"кашника" из ЧВК Вагнер https://tttttt.me/ButusovPlus/891 #роа #warcrimes
ВСУ поймали зека-"кашника" из ЧВК Вагнер https://tttttt.me/ButusovPlus/891 #роа #warcrimes
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Necro Mancer (Twitter)
Допрос пациента: это не взвод, это просто кучка народа, "ашники" - вольные, "кашники" - это зэки; готовили в Стаханове на какой-то промзоне; гранатомётом умел пользоваться только один (полное видео https://youtu.be/vImWLr32N8Y) #Вагнер #роа #warcrimes
Допрос пациента: это не взвод, это просто кучка народа, "ашники" - вольные, "кашники" - это зэки; готовили в Стаханове на какой-то промзоне; гранатомётом умел пользоваться только один (полное видео https://youtu.be/vImWLr32N8Y) #Вагнер #роа #warcrimes
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Necro Mancer (Twitter)
@don_metadon @T3ZLA_ Нет, см. на его жетон, там я видео допроса сейчас докинул, это обозначение зэков, у вольных буква "А"
@don_metadon @T3ZLA_ Нет, см. на его жетон, там я видео допроса сейчас докинул, это обозначение зэков, у вольных буква "А"
Necro Mancer (Twitter)
@AnjeiStrong @menzurra @T3ZLA_ Хз, может просто номер группы, мало данных для выводов
@AnjeiStrong @menzurra @T3ZLA_ Хз, может просто номер группы, мало данных для выводов
Necro Mancer (Twitter)
@sidorsidoro_ @partizan201415 Обозначение для зечья, для вольных вагнеров буква А
@sidorsidoro_ @partizan201415 Обозначение для зечья, для вольных вагнеров буква А