Necro Mancer (Twitter)

#Токмак, Запорожская обл., какая офигительная история: мусор и 2 нацика побеседовали у подъезда с неизвестным мужчиной, который потом бросил в них из квартиры гранату, расстрелял и самоподорвался. При этом он ещё и корректировщик https://lenta.ru/news/2022/09/02/korr/ #росгвардия #потерьнет

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

@korovovirus Там ещё и ж/д мост, который могли приспособить под авто

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

@cepurkok Вряд ли

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

@AnjeiStrong Да нахуй оно надо, не такая уж нужная фича

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

@PaulJawin Дымящаяся была в районе Энергодара, намного выше по течению

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

@novichok_1 @AS7404542949 @ZlbRvnk Роспроп тебе и не такое скажет

Rob Lee (Twitter)

@DrRadchenko Thank you, Sergey.

 Rob Lee (Twitter)

Thanks to @yapparova_lilya for this interview. One thing I want to emphasize is that defense analysis depends on the quality of the data. I don't have a great understanding of the force ratios in Kherson, which means it is difficult to make a high confidence prediction.
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@meduza_en:
Military analyst @RALee85 sat down with Meduza to cut through some of the fog of war and discuss the prospects of Ukraine's long-awaited counteroffensive, among other things. https://t.co/Arj3XLVFj7

Rob Lee (Twitter)

There are important tangible (e.g. quantity and quality of forces/equipment) and intangible factors (e.g. leadership and morale). I think the intangible factors favor Ukraine, and but many of the tangible factors are harder to assess (at least from my vantage point). 2/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Ukraine now has very good NATO artillery with PGMs and HIMARS/M270, and has a greater quantity of tubes and ammunition than in early summer. It has enough 155mm ammunition to conduct an offensive and its crews are proficient with these systems. 3/
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@RALee85:
"As of Aug. 24, the U.S. military said it had provided Ukraine with up to 806,000 rounds of 155 mm ammunition."
https://t.co/NfclJyjXR4 https://t.co/EQe4lCNIXe

Rob Lee (Twitter)

But it is less clear if Ukraine has sufficient tanks, IFVs, and other system, which are critical to for any offensive. And you need well-trained forces (with armor) to conduct offensive operations well and to rapidly exploit breakthroughs. 4/
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@RALee85:
"The mission had carried two objectives, he said: to find Russian positions and to find abandoned equipment... 'We’re fighting with whatever we captured from the enemy,' Bogdan said, noting that 80% of his current supplies was captured Russian equipment."
https://t.co/2DWd9yL4tD https://t.co/cfHt1dK5JP

Rob Lee (Twitter)

In order to mass sufficient forces that are well-trained for an offensive in Kherson, Ukraine may have to pull units or reserves away from other parts of the front. That means Russia may be able to take terrain elsewhere as a result. 5/

🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (Twitter)

#Ukraine: A Ukrainian YPR-765 armored personnel carrier with a Browning M2 heavy machine gun was captured by the Russian army in #Kherson Oblast. These APCs were donated to Ukraine by Netherlands - and this is the first vehicle of this type to be lost so far.

Rob Lee (Twitter)

So any analysis of whether Ukraine will have success in Kherson depends on making estimates about a number of critical tangible factors (other people may have a better estimate/understanding). When you add several uncertain estimates together, you have weak data. 6/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

So I can't make a high-confidence prediction, but Ukraine has a number of advantages pursuing a campaign in Kherson. It may not have an overall advantage in artillery and armor, but it likely does in Kherson and certainly in tactical engagements when it masses them. 7/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Russia depended on a significant advantage in artillery rounds fired in the Donbas. Russia can resupply its forces across the Dnipro with ferries, but it likely can't deliver enough artillery ammunition and other heavy equipment if Ukrainian leans heavily on artillery. 8/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Russia will also have difficulty deploying reserves across the river. Kyiv has advantages in Kherson and will likely achieve successes, but without a solid understanding of force ratios, equipment, # of well-trained Ukrainian units, etc., it is hard to predict how much or when.9/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

So I don't know how much terrain Ukraine will be able to take back this month, but, when we look at the medium-to-long-term, I think manpower issues will become a greater problem for Russia and Ukraine can make Russia's occupation efforts more costly and less sustainable. 10/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Russia's force in Ukraine depends on volunteers who signed 3 or 6 month contracts. Will they sign another contract? Can Russia keep meeting its manpower needs without mobilization? I don't know, but I have a feeling many volunteers won't want to spend the winter in a trench. 11/