The Lookout (Twitter)
@The_Lookout_N @APHClarkson @FriedrichArndt: The Russians, with their original war aims intact, might blow this and thus the war continues.
@The_Lookout_N @APHClarkson @FriedrichArndt: The Russians, with their original war aims intact, might blow this and thus the war continues.
The Lookout (Twitter)
@APHClarkson @FriedrichArndt: Getting the nuances out on this thing is difficult, my mood might be dark too, but playing along with Trump and hoping the Russians blow it seems like the only way ahead.
We are still faced with the key question on how does one achieve a better outcome and end to the current round, both for Ukraine and us others close to Russia?
Here I am also not very hopeful, based on the West's past track record.
@APHClarkson @FriedrichArndt: Getting the nuances out on this thing is difficult, my mood might be dark too, but playing along with Trump and hoping the Russians blow it seems like the only way ahead.
We are still faced with the key question on how does one achieve a better outcome and end to the current round, both for Ukraine and us others close to Russia?
Here I am also not very hopeful, based on the West's past track record.
😢1
The Lookout (Twitter)
@rlaugenjs: We will have to live with the consequences of our sins of the past, both in regards to Ukraine, our own capabilities and the risk of something bigger later on.
The latter will start to increase when the current war ends, if it ends largely on Russian terms, and that is where I think we have been heading for a long time.
@rlaugenjs: We will have to live with the consequences of our sins of the past, both in regards to Ukraine, our own capabilities and the risk of something bigger later on.
The latter will start to increase when the current war ends, if it ends largely on Russian terms, and that is where I think we have been heading for a long time.
😢1
Status-6 (Twitter)
"Witkoff needs to see a psychiatrist," a senior EU politician told Politico.
https://www.politico.eu/article/steve-witkoff-needs-a-psychiatrist-europeans-fume-at-donald-trump-plan-to-profit-from-frozen-russian-assets/
"Witkoff needs to see a psychiatrist," a senior EU politician told Politico.
https://www.politico.eu/article/steve-witkoff-needs-a-psychiatrist-europeans-fume-at-donald-trump-plan-to-profit-from-frozen-russian-assets/
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The Lookout (Twitter)
@oroborous: I have the impression that the US pressure is on a whole new level this time.
@oroborous: I have the impression that the US pressure is on a whole new level this time.
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The Lookout (Twitter)
@The_Lookout_N @oroborous: The Russians could still botch this at their end though.
@The_Lookout_N @oroborous: The Russians could still botch this at their end though.
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
RT @PjotrSauer: As a teen, Dmitriev praised Ukrainian independence. Today, his Kyiv childhood friend is wounded fighting for Ukraine - while he has become a key Putin loyalist. My profile of a man back in the spotlight he has always relished.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/21/who-is-kirill-dmitriev-draft-plan-ukraine-war-russia
RT @PjotrSauer: As a teen, Dmitriev praised Ukrainian independence. Today, his Kyiv childhood friend is wounded fighting for Ukraine - while he has become a key Putin loyalist. My profile of a man back in the spotlight he has always relished.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/21/who-is-kirill-dmitriev-draft-plan-ukraine-war-russia
the Guardian
Kirill Dmitriev: ‘ruthlessly ambitious’ Kremlin figure behind Ukraine plan
Harvard-educated head of Russia’s wealth fund has risen to key role despite having little diplomatic experience
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The Lookout (Twitter)
@rlaugenjs: "As long as it takes" has never been a real strategy. This is the largest of the past sins IMO.
The fate of occupied territory is very painful, I keep imagining the same fate for Finnmark, but I don't see a realistic way to change that. The Russians will never leave voluntarily.
The window for major liberations closed when the '23 summer offensive failed at the latest, perhaps even with the Russian mobilization and them starting digging.
Hoping for a Russian internal collapse isn't a strategy either.
@rlaugenjs: "As long as it takes" has never been a real strategy. This is the largest of the past sins IMO.
The fate of occupied territory is very painful, I keep imagining the same fate for Finnmark, but I don't see a realistic way to change that. The Russians will never leave voluntarily.
The window for major liberations closed when the '23 summer offensive failed at the latest, perhaps even with the Russian mobilization and them starting digging.
Hoping for a Russian internal collapse isn't a strategy either.
😢1
imi (m) (Twitter)
RT @Danspiun: In Ternopil, rescuers found three more bodies under the rubble: a woman and two children, the🇺🇦National Police reported.
The number of people killed by the Russian missile strike has risen to 31, including six children.
Ninety-four people were injured, including 18 children.
RT @Danspiun: In Ternopil, rescuers found three more bodies under the rubble: a woman and two children, the🇺🇦National Police reported.
The number of people killed by the Russian missile strike has risen to 31, including six children.
Ninety-four people were injured, including 18 children.
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The Lookout (Twitter)
@rlaugenjs: Sanctions relief is something I think Europe can stall on though, even if the US lifts theirs.
@rlaugenjs: Sanctions relief is something I think Europe can stall on though, even if the US lifts theirs.
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
RT @jana_skhidna: в Покровську на жаль, стабільний повний піздець.
сіра зона біля Рівного, Світлого збільшилась...
(ну і так, всі знають, що карта показує із запізненням в кілька днів)
RT @jana_skhidna: в Покровську на жаль, стабільний повний піздець.
сіра зона біля Рівного, Світлого збільшилась...
(ну і так, всі знають, що карта показує із запізненням в кілька днів)
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The Lookout (Twitter)
Even with me saying what I have said about the way to handle the US peace proposal, I also think a peace largely on Russian terms (such as this) will increase the risk of something bigger down the line, requiring a much quicker and larger European defense buildup.
That will cost
Even with me saying what I have said about the way to handle the US peace proposal, I also think a peace largely on Russian terms (such as this) will increase the risk of something bigger down the line, requiring a much quicker and larger European defense buildup.
That will cost
vxTwitter / fixvx
💖 31 🔁 4
💖 31 🔁 4
Thord Are Iversen (@The_Lookout_N)
Looking at the US peace proposal, I think it's important to be able to separate between how one wants the war to end, as seen from Ukraine and from Europe close to Russia vs dealing with and discussing reality, ugly as it is.
Wishful thinking will not lead…
Wishful thinking will not lead…
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The Lookout (Twitter)
This might be where we have been heading for a long time now because of the lack of a real Western strategy, with a clear end state, properly and timely resourced
I might come across as dark but by saying "play along with Trump", I think one must try to do the best of a bad sit.
This might be where we have been heading for a long time now because of the lack of a real Western strategy, with a clear end state, properly and timely resourced
I might come across as dark but by saying "play along with Trump", I think one must try to do the best of a bad sit.
😢1
The Lookout (Twitter)
And the Russians, with their original war aims intact, might mess this up leading to the war continuing.
If that happens, the trajectory is still negative, so sometime down the line we will be at the same point with a potential deal again.
Is something better possible then?
And the Russians, with their original war aims intact, might mess this up leading to the war continuing.
If that happens, the trajectory is still negative, so sometime down the line we will be at the same point with a potential deal again.
Is something better possible then?
The Lookout (Twitter)
@ErikRosenberg89: I might see the trajectory of the war differently, and have done so for a long time now.
Cold, unemotional analysis is what I try to do, not propaganda. I do wish we were some place better but we aren't there.
This doesn't mean that the Russians don't have their issues but hoping for a collapse isn't a strategy.
@ErikRosenberg89: I might see the trajectory of the war differently, and have done so for a long time now.
Cold, unemotional analysis is what I try to do, not propaganda. I do wish we were some place better but we aren't there.
This doesn't mean that the Russians don't have their issues but hoping for a collapse isn't a strategy.