The Lookout (Twitter)
Faced with this proposal, one has to ask what would be required to reach a better outcome for Ukraine (and Europe).
Is reaching a better "deal" realistic, given the West's handling of the war so far and Ukraine's challenges?
Many won't like the answer.
Faced with this proposal, one has to ask what would be required to reach a better outcome for Ukraine (and Europe).
Is reaching a better "deal" realistic, given the West's handling of the war so far and Ukraine's challenges?
Many won't like the answer.
vxTwitter / fixvx
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💖 34 🔁 11
Mark Galeotti (@MarkGaleotti)
I'm sure this will be an unpopular opinion, but while the text of the US plan for Ukraine is poorly drafted and incomplete, it is not a simple call for Ukrainian capitulation. As a starting point for something that could stop the killing, it has some promise.…
The Lookout (Twitter)
The Russians could very well botch this attempt up on their end due to their unchanged war aims.
If it indeed goes into effect, it should be treated as a pause rather than the end, but:
Hard to dismiss this proposal without a realistic alternative, which will be hard to find.
The Russians could very well botch this attempt up on their end due to their unchanged war aims.
If it indeed goes into effect, it should be treated as a pause rather than the end, but:
Hard to dismiss this proposal without a realistic alternative, which will be hard to find.
The Lookout (Twitter)
Unpopular, highly likely.
Are there issues with this outline, also for Europe and our future security?
Yes, certainly.
However, we are where we are.
Changing the outcome would require European political will and risk appetite far beyond anything we have seen so far.
Unpopular, highly likely.
Are there issues with this outline, also for Europe and our future security?
Yes, certainly.
However, we are where we are.
Changing the outcome would require European political will and risk appetite far beyond anything we have seen so far.
The Lookout (Twitter)
RT @Stanovaya: My very first reaction to the published plan: while it reflects most of Putin’s demands (that until recently seemed unrealistic), it contains — from a Russian perspective — two major problems.
First, the wording reveals a dismissive and inaccurate understanding of how Moscow formulates its positions. The plan takes Russian demands into account, but Russia would not articulate them in this manner, which makes it difficult to imagine, as @vfroloff noted, real involvement of Russian diplomats in drafting it.
Second, although the concessions to Russia appear substantial, the plan would also require Moscow to abandon some of its earlier conditions — for example, the more radical reduction of Ukraine’s armed forces or parts of the political reform package.
The wording itself may represent a problem for Moscow, as it reflects what Russia would see as unbacked promises — requiring extensive Western (NATO) commitments — and may therefore be interpreted as a “bird in the sky.” I am not suggesting that Putin would reject the plan outright, but he would almost certainly insist on scrupulous work on the formulations and on putting every commitment down on paper in detailed form.
This creates a paradox: having received, in outline, much of what it wanted, Moscow now has to treat seriously something it is likely to view as fundamentally unsubstantiated and unreliable.
RT @Stanovaya: My very first reaction to the published plan: while it reflects most of Putin’s demands (that until recently seemed unrealistic), it contains — from a Russian perspective — two major problems.
First, the wording reveals a dismissive and inaccurate understanding of how Moscow formulates its positions. The plan takes Russian demands into account, but Russia would not articulate them in this manner, which makes it difficult to imagine, as @vfroloff noted, real involvement of Russian diplomats in drafting it.
Second, although the concessions to Russia appear substantial, the plan would also require Moscow to abandon some of its earlier conditions — for example, the more radical reduction of Ukraine’s armed forces or parts of the political reform package.
The wording itself may represent a problem for Moscow, as it reflects what Russia would see as unbacked promises — requiring extensive Western (NATO) commitments — and may therefore be interpreted as a “bird in the sky.” I am not suggesting that Putin would reject the plan outright, but he would almost certainly insist on scrupulous work on the formulations and on putting every commitment down on paper in detailed form.
This creates a paradox: having received, in outline, much of what it wanted, Moscow now has to treat seriously something it is likely to view as fundamentally unsubstantiated and unreliable.
The Lookout (Twitter)
RT @MarkGaleotti: I'm sure this will be an unpopular opinion, but while the text of the US plan for Ukraine is poorly drafted and incomplete, it is not a simple call for Ukrainian capitulation. As a starting point for something that could stop the killing, it has some promise. A few thoughts 1/
RT @MarkGaleotti: I'm sure this will be an unpopular opinion, but while the text of the US plan for Ukraine is poorly drafted and incomplete, it is not a simple call for Ukrainian capitulation. As a starting point for something that could stop the killing, it has some promise. A few thoughts 1/
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Necro Mancer (Twitter)
Северно-Слобожанское направление, группа ССО зачищает позиции рашистов в лесном массиве
t.me/ukr_sof/2263 #RussianUkrainianWar
Северно-Слобожанское направление, группа ССО зачищает позиции рашистов в лесном массиве
t.me/ukr_sof/2263 #RussianUkrainianWar
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Def Mon (Twitter)
RT @neonhandrail: @Exilenova_plus: Pantsir operators view of Feodosia Destruction Oct 13
POV 45.067902, 35.392068
@GeoConfirmed @UAControlMap @Tatarigami_UA @giK1893 https://twitter.com/Exilenova_plus/status/1991811528740213009#m
RT @neonhandrail: @Exilenova_plus: Pantsir operators view of Feodosia Destruction Oct 13
POV 45.067902, 35.392068
@GeoConfirmed @UAControlMap @Tatarigami_UA @giK1893 https://twitter.com/Exilenova_plus/status/1991811528740213009#m
👍1
Necro Mancer (Twitter)
RT @donikroman: Запрошуємо піхотинців з бойових підрозділів щоб стати інструкторами в 151 навчальному центрі.
Треба сучасний бойовий досвід. Розуміння важливості якості підготовки. Розуміння важливості роботи інструктора.
Переводи з бойових підрозділів в межах СВ (можливі інші варіанти).
RT @donikroman: Запрошуємо піхотинців з бойових підрозділів щоб стати інструкторами в 151 навчальному центрі.
Треба сучасний бойовий досвід. Розуміння важливості якості підготовки. Розуміння важливості роботи інструктора.
Переводи з бойових підрозділів в межах СВ (можливі інші варіанти).
Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (Twitter)
RT @Tatarigami_UA: A vessel has been burning for an extended period near Vladivostok, just a few kilometres from the oil-loading terminal of OAO NK Alliance. According to the @Exilenova_plus the vessel does not appear on public tracking services, which may indicate it belongs to the "shadow fleet.”
RT @Tatarigami_UA: A vessel has been burning for an extended period near Vladivostok, just a few kilometres from the oil-loading terminal of OAO NK Alliance. According to the @Exilenova_plus the vessel does not appear on public tracking services, which may indicate it belongs to the "shadow fleet.”
Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (Twitter)
For the first time since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine has transferred a captured Russian serviceman to another country.
The soldier was handed over to Lithuania because one of the prisoners he tortured in a makeshift jail at the occupied Melitopol airfield was a Lithuanian volunteer who had supported Ukraine from the first days of the war.
Lithuania will now prosecute the suspect, who faces 10–20 years in prison or a life sentence.
"According to the Criminal Code of the Republic of Lithuania, war crimes against civilians and prisoners of war committed through torture and unlawful deprivation of liberty are punishable by 10 to 20 years of imprisonment or life imprisonment. Therefore, I would like to thank our colleagues from the Security Service of Ukraine for their significant contribution to this investigation," emphasized Deputy Prosecutor General of Lithuania Gintas Ivanauskas.
t.me/SBUkr/16289
For the first time since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine has transferred a captured Russian serviceman to another country.
The soldier was handed over to Lithuania because one of the prisoners he tortured in a makeshift jail at the occupied Melitopol airfield was a Lithuanian volunteer who had supported Ukraine from the first days of the war.
Lithuania will now prosecute the suspect, who faces 10–20 years in prison or a life sentence.
"According to the Criminal Code of the Republic of Lithuania, war crimes against civilians and prisoners of war committed through torture and unlawful deprivation of liberty are punishable by 10 to 20 years of imprisonment or life imprisonment. Therefore, I would like to thank our colleagues from the Security Service of Ukraine for their significant contribution to this investigation," emphasized Deputy Prosecutor General of Lithuania Gintas Ivanauskas.
t.me/SBUkr/16289
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