Rob Lee (Twitter)

Ultimately, the two previous large crossborder operations in May-June 2023 and March 2024 had little effect on the fighting on the priority axes. The 2023 operation caught Russia by surprise and may have been a relatively effective economy of force mission (though it did not force Russia to redeploy significant forces from priority areas) but the March 2024 operation was far less successful. 4/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Since then, Russia stood up a Northern Group of Forces leading the Kharkiv offensive, and has strengthened its forces on the border. So Russia already has greater forces/conventional capabilities in the area, better command and control, and it has conscript units that can be deployed, which are not used in Ukraine. It is unlikely this operation will force Russia to pull significant forces from Ukraine. 5/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Russia has improved its dynamic targeting with persistent ISR coverage from UAVs behind Ukrainian lines, which are used to locate targets for Lancets, Krasnopol, Iskander-M, and other PGMs. Russian UAV footage of Ukrainian units moving across the border suggests this problem has not been solved, which can make it dangerous to mass armor. 6/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

A limited operation might be able to achieve limited goals, but a more ambitious operation carries greater risks. It is unlikely this operation will have a significant effect on the course of the war, and previous crossborder operations did not have serious domestic political ramifications for Putin. 7/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

We only have limited information right now and the size and scope of the operation isn't clear, but largescale crossborder operations are more difficult now than they were in 2023 and Russia continues to advance in the Donbas. 8/ https://twitter.com/J_JHelin/status/1820864139100877285#m

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Offensive operations also risk taking higher casualties than in defense at a time when Ukrainian forces are stretched thin. Ukraine needs to maintain a favorable attrition ratio given the manpower situation, so taking heavy losses in this operation could make it more difficult for Ukraine to hold back future Russian assaults if it saps Ukraine's limited reserves. 9/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Footage reportedly of Russian soldiers captured in Kursk oblast. 3/ https://twitter.com/censor_net/status/1820853524579668445#m

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Video of Chasiv Yar from Ukraine’s 225th Assault Battalion.
t.me/black_swan_ukraine/158

Rob Lee (Twitter)

@Turnervariable @DelJWasso @vixensarevixens @ScepticalTechn1 @Tendar @WarMonitor3_ @ukraine_map @UAControlMap @IAPonomarenko: I’m not paying Twitter.

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Video of a pair of tanks from Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade firing at Russian positions and employing smoke.
t.me/ab3army/4425

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Some of the geolocated footage from today. 4/
t.me/DeepStateUA/20075

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Two more videos of Russian soldiers using Discord.
t.me/russianocontext/4183 https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1816978111759790510#m

Dan (Twitter)

332-333. South of Pletenivka.
2.1 km south of tweet 331 on same 'the road of death',🇺🇦82nd Air Assault Bde FPV strike a Russian at 50.322642, 36.930542.
@GeoConfirmed @UAControlMap
Also via @OSINTua the same🇷🇺Desertcross wreck from the film destroyed in mid May at 50.3226, 36.93043.
At 0:15 in film released 08 July. t.me/wilddivision82/205

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@USA_Polling: When Tim Walz was in Congress, he was as much of a Republican as Paul Ryan, the Republican Speaker of the House in 2018, according to Govtrack.Us