Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@cym27s: Why surely from a downed missile? An ATACMS 300km Cluster Missiles has 300x M74 Bomblets, some will not explode, it happens with all cluster weapons. In most previous ATACMS strikes we have seen unexploded bomblets. In Belbek some bomblets will land on grass, others near planes.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@ukraine_map @cym27s: If they shot down a missile, they’d be showing us the downed missile not one of the 300 Bomblets inside of it.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@cym27s: They showed at least 2 and maybe 3 of them being shot down, the Kinzhal warhead they claimed was shot down was the exact same warhead that was in the Kinzhal crash in Russia earlier. It’s kind of hard to show it since PAC-3 is hit-to-kill, it disintegrates the missile completely.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@ukraine_map @cym27s: I also want to mention that Ukraine doesn’t go around claiming to have shot down 20-30 Kinzhals at once like Russia does ATACMS.

Of ~65 Kinzhals launched, Ukraine has claimed to have shot down around 26 of them. 0 outside of Kyiv, and most of the time claim none were shot down.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@ukraine_map @cym27s: We would also be seeing blackouts and tons of damage in Kyiv like we did in 2022-23, now it’s a rarity. I’m not believing all claims Ukraine says blindly, it correlates with reality to what’s hit in my city, and Ukraine claims to not shoot down 30% of missiles. Kyiv is different.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@ukraine_map @cym27s: The Patriot system in Kyiv would have also been completely destroyed and non-functional if Kinzhal was not being shot down. Yet the system keeps functioning.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@cym27s: That’s because the power plants outside the city got hit, like the Trypilska TPP which was outside of Kyiv supplying it energy

That is the situation in the entire country, electricity is weak, but is still supplying the entire city, however there’s no full blackouts like in 2023

‌Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@cym27s: No, PAC-3 has a range of 35km, and usually missiles get shot down 15km-20km from the center of the city. This TPP was 38.5km from the center of the city, or 36km from the closest Patriot.

Ukraine doesn’t have infinite Patriot missiles and will use those mainly to shoot down ballistic missiles. The systems used to intercept cruise missiles would be NASAMS, IRIS-T, Buk. Ukraine said they shot 6-7 missiles down, then the system ran out of missiles and 4 missiles struck the power plant. They were likely not using NASAMS as Ukraine only has 4 of those systems probably around Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, and Zaporzhzhia Cities, and were likely using IRIS-T and/or Buk.

The Patriot system is not in effective or realistic range of that power plant. The closest NASAMS launcher in Kyiv would’ve been about or at least 30km away from the power plant and it’s max missile range is also 30km so it would be nearly impossible for it to be intercepted by NASAMS at that range right when it’s about to hit it’s target, 10-11 missiles at once too. Now if this was in Kyiv, in the city itself, and it got hit by 4 missiles, then it’s a completely different story.

‌Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@ukraine_map @cym27s: PAC-2 is 160km against planes and not against missiles. Ballistic Missiles would likely be intercepted much closer with both PAC-2 and PAC-3 at less than 30km based on their trajectory.

‌Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@ukraine_map @cym27s: These power plants are located outside of cities usually and are easy targets, since the air defenses are defending cities or air bases, and there is a lack of Patriots in the country.

‌Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@ukraine_map @cym27s: There were blackouts in Kharkiv City a couple of weeks ago, but that’s about it. Not like the entire country was out of lights, like last year. This did not happen in Kyiv this year. When power plants get destroyed or damaged, then Ukraine needs to take electricity from the EU.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@Maks_NAFO_FELLA: We aren’t stupid and can differentiate what paint from an aircraft. Did they forget that US Global Hawk Drones fly around Crimea?

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

These seem like quite large fires for just air frames, there is a possibility air defenses and ammunition storage depots could also have been hit.