The Lookout (Twitter)
RT @R__Politik: The current prisoner exchange seems to mark the end, rather than the beginning, of a particular phase in which, despite the acute geopolitical conflict, Russia on one side and the U.S. and Germany on the other reached an agreement, anticipating worsening conditions. It is uncertain what to expect from the political changes and dynamics in the U.S. after the presidential election. In the weeks following the election, work that has been ongoing for almost two years could be undermined. For #Biden, this exchange represents a clear political achievement that will benefit the Democrats in the election. Meanwhile, #Putin has successfully secured #Krasikov’s return. For Berlin, Krasikov is a murderer who acted in cold blood within a sovereign state on behalf of a foreign secret service; for Putin, he is a patriot and a hero whose return was a matter of principle. The central aspect of the deal is the exchange of Krasikov for Evan #Gershkovich, who has become Moscow’s primary hostage and asset. Others are included in the exchange as part of the negotiation surrounding the deal.
Another factor influencing the situation was #Navalny’s death, which significantly increased the humanitarian significance of the potential swap. However, for Putin, the release of political prisoners is an ambiguous move: domestic hardliners view it as an excessive concession and an “investment” in the opposition abroad.
Finally, while Russian authorities may cautiously view the exchange as a sign of the West’s willingness to make pragmatic deals, the West sees it as confirmation of the danger posed by a Russia that takes hostages, imprisons dissenters, and commits killings in prisons. There is no indication that the current exchange will facilitate peace talks concerning Ukraine. Instead, it reflects the current situation, where each side learns to live with mutual intransigence.
RT @R__Politik: The current prisoner exchange seems to mark the end, rather than the beginning, of a particular phase in which, despite the acute geopolitical conflict, Russia on one side and the U.S. and Germany on the other reached an agreement, anticipating worsening conditions. It is uncertain what to expect from the political changes and dynamics in the U.S. after the presidential election. In the weeks following the election, work that has been ongoing for almost two years could be undermined. For #Biden, this exchange represents a clear political achievement that will benefit the Democrats in the election. Meanwhile, #Putin has successfully secured #Krasikov’s return. For Berlin, Krasikov is a murderer who acted in cold blood within a sovereign state on behalf of a foreign secret service; for Putin, he is a patriot and a hero whose return was a matter of principle. The central aspect of the deal is the exchange of Krasikov for Evan #Gershkovich, who has become Moscow’s primary hostage and asset. Others are included in the exchange as part of the negotiation surrounding the deal.
Another factor influencing the situation was #Navalny’s death, which significantly increased the humanitarian significance of the potential swap. However, for Putin, the release of political prisoners is an ambiguous move: domestic hardliners view it as an excessive concession and an “investment” in the opposition abroad.
Finally, while Russian authorities may cautiously view the exchange as a sign of the West’s willingness to make pragmatic deals, the West sees it as confirmation of the danger posed by a Russia that takes hostages, imprisons dissenters, and commits killings in prisons. There is no indication that the current exchange will facilitate peace talks concerning Ukraine. Instead, it reflects the current situation, where each side learns to live with mutual intransigence.
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
RT @Dr_M_Davis: More on possible outcome of discussions about removing (or not really removing) US imposed constraints on #Ukraine's ability to employ US supplied long-range weapons (and weapons supplied by western European partners) against targets inside Russia.
If this report is accurate, that's a real setback for Kyiv and will only encourage #Putin to escalate and prolong his aggression against Ukraine. It also sends a signal of weakness from the US that will be picked up not only in Moscow, but also in Beijing, Pyongyang and Tehran. https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1834287492247191940#m
RT @Dr_M_Davis: More on possible outcome of discussions about removing (or not really removing) US imposed constraints on #Ukraine's ability to employ US supplied long-range weapons (and weapons supplied by western European partners) against targets inside Russia.
If this report is accurate, that's a real setback for Kyiv and will only encourage #Putin to escalate and prolong his aggression against Ukraine. It also sends a signal of weakness from the US that will be picked up not only in Moscow, but also in Beijing, Pyongyang and Tehran. https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1834287492247191940#m
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
RT @Dr_M_Davis: Agree with @ColbyBadhwar's thoughts here... suggesting that North Korean involvement in the war in Ukraine 'is a sign of Russia weakness' is the wrong lesson to learn. What the US should be recognising is the increasing willingness of the axis of authoritarian states - #Russia, #China, #NorthKorea and #Iran to confront western democracies and challenge us militarily. It also demonstrates a failure of - or complete absence of - western deterrence in the face of growing threats that are backed up by #nuclear saber rattling.
This is not an act of weakness or desperation by #Putin. It is a threat https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1850988390788763819#m
RT @Dr_M_Davis: Agree with @ColbyBadhwar's thoughts here... suggesting that North Korean involvement in the war in Ukraine 'is a sign of Russia weakness' is the wrong lesson to learn. What the US should be recognising is the increasing willingness of the axis of authoritarian states - #Russia, #China, #NorthKorea and #Iran to confront western democracies and challenge us militarily. It also demonstrates a failure of - or complete absence of - western deterrence in the face of growing threats that are backed up by #nuclear saber rattling.
This is not an act of weakness or desperation by #Putin. It is a threat https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1850988390788763819#m