Rob Lee (Twitter)
The USAI package announced today includes Patriot and NASAMS missiles and the PDA included Stinger MANPADS and RIM-7/AIM-9M missiles reportedly for FrankeSAM systems. Stingers could help push Su-25 further from the front line, and Patriots are critical both for defending cities and infrastructure from Russian ballistic missiles and also to counter Russian Su-34 bombers that drop UMPK glide bombs. 7/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1783926909316878763
The USAI package announced today includes Patriot and NASAMS missiles and the PDA included Stinger MANPADS and RIM-7/AIM-9M missiles reportedly for FrankeSAM systems. Stingers could help push Su-25 further from the front line, and Patriots are critical both for defending cities and infrastructure from Russian ballistic missiles and also to counter Russian Su-34 bombers that drop UMPK glide bombs. 7/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1783926909316878763
vxTwitter / fixvx
Rob Lee (@RALee85)
The DoD Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) package includes:
-Patriot and NASAMS missiles
-Equipment to integrate Western air defense launchers, missiles, and radars with Ukraine's air defense systems
-Counter-UAS equipment and systems
-Munitions…
-Patriot and NASAMS missiles
-Equipment to integrate Western air defense launchers, missiles, and radars with Ukraine's air defense systems
-Counter-UAS equipment and systems
-Munitions…
Rob Lee (Twitter)
The question is whether production of these missiles is sufficient to meet Ukraine's continued air defense needs over time, especially with increased Russian production of Shahed UAS and missiles. F-16 fighters and their airbases will be another priority target for Russian missiles that will require air defense coverage. It also depends how successful the various FrankenSAM programs prove to be. 8/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1747624700941836625
The question is whether production of these missiles is sufficient to meet Ukraine's continued air defense needs over time, especially with increased Russian production of Shahed UAS and missiles. F-16 fighters and their airbases will be another priority target for Russian missiles that will require air defense coverage. It also depends how successful the various FrankenSAM programs prove to be. 8/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1747624700941836625
vxTwitter / fixvx
Rob Lee (@RALee85)
Description of some of the variants in the FrankenSAM program.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/28/us/politics/air-defense-ukraine-frankensam.html
💖 158 🔁 19
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/28/us/politics/air-defense-ukraine-frankensam.html
💖 158 🔁 19
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Manpower has become the most pressing issue though, which was exacerbated by reduced deliveries of ammunition and equipment over the winter. Ukraine's summer offensive primarily culminated when it ran out of infantry, and Ukraine has struggled to replace combat losses since then. 9/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1753174234455502976
Manpower has become the most pressing issue though, which was exacerbated by reduced deliveries of ammunition and equipment over the winter. Ukraine's summer offensive primarily culminated when it ran out of infantry, and Ukraine has struggled to replace combat losses since then. 9/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1753174234455502976
vxTwitter / fixvx
Rob Lee (@RALee85)
“'There really aren’t enough people,' said a major who is commanding a unit in eastern Ukraine...'Taking into account that the Russians have been conducting offensive actions for several months, mainly in eastern Ukraine, the need for people is critical,'”…
Rob Lee (Twitter)
This means that Ukrainian brigades are understrength, and Ukraine lacks sufficient reserves to respond to Russian advances, so units are pulled from one part of the front to attempt to stop advances elsewhere. Ukrainian infantry need to be rotated more often or there will be a growing risk of exhaustion. 10/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1777210985813573835
This means that Ukrainian brigades are understrength, and Ukraine lacks sufficient reserves to respond to Russian advances, so units are pulled from one part of the front to attempt to stop advances elsewhere. Ukrainian infantry need to be rotated more often or there will be a growing risk of exhaustion. 10/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1777210985813573835
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Rob Lee (@RALee85)
From a battalion commander with Ukraine's 59th Motorized Brigade from 2 weeks ago,
"what is needed now are people...Because even young guys can’t stand to spend two years in the trenches, their health is not good enough. And in our army, the average age…
"what is needed now are people...Because even young guys can’t stand to spend two years in the trenches, their health is not good enough. And in our army, the average age…
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Ukraine has passed a new mobilization bill that provides incentives for volunteers and increases the pool of men available to be drafted. Hopefully, this will improve the manpower situation, but it will take time to mobilize and train soldiers/units. 11/
Ukraine has passed a new mobilization bill that provides incentives for volunteers and increases the pool of men available to be drafted. Hopefully, this will improve the manpower situation, but it will take time to mobilize and train soldiers/units. 11/
vxTwitter / fixvx
The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent)
⚡Zelensky signs mobilization bill.
Ukraine's bill on mobilization has been signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky, according to the online portal of Ukraine's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, on April 16.
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-signs-mobilization…
Ukraine's bill on mobilization has been signed by President Volodymyr Zelensky, according to the online portal of Ukraine's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, on April 16.
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-signs-mobilization…
Rob Lee (Twitter)
More concerning is that the manpower issue has been known for some time, but has not been fixed. The longer it takes to improve the manpower situation, the less likely it becomes that Ukraine can conduct a offensive in 2025. The new NATO-trained/equipped brigades last summer did not have enough time to train together, and Russian defenses will still be strong. New soldiers/units need to be mobilized to replace current losses and trained for 2025. 12/
More concerning is that the manpower issue has been known for some time, but has not been fixed. The longer it takes to improve the manpower situation, the less likely it becomes that Ukraine can conduct a offensive in 2025. The new NATO-trained/equipped brigades last summer did not have enough time to train together, and Russian defenses will still be strong. New soldiers/units need to be mobilized to replace current losses and trained for 2025. 12/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
At the same time, one of the most important factors in the war last year was that Russia was able to significantly improve its manpower situation, recruiting more than 300,000 volunteers. 13/ https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1760236128324534682#m
At the same time, one of the most important factors in the war last year was that Russia was able to significantly improve its manpower situation, recruiting more than 300,000 volunteers. 13/ https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1760236128324534682#m
Rob Lee (Twitter)
It isn't just involuntary mobilized soldiers and prisoners, they are mostly getting volunteers who are willing to go into costly assaults. The quality, of course, varies, but the quantitative advantage is a serious problem. 14/ https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1735754140536435144#m
It isn't just involuntary mobilized soldiers and prisoners, they are mostly getting volunteers who are willing to go into costly assaults. The quality, of course, varies, but the quantitative advantage is a serious problem. 14/ https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1735754140536435144#m
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Without this manpower advantage, Russia's artillery and airpower advantage would not be sufficient for Russia to make gains on the battlefield. The relative manpower situation is likely the most important factor that will determine the war's trajectory, particularly if Russia can sustain recruiting 20-30k a month. 15/
Without this manpower advantage, Russia's artillery and airpower advantage would not be sufficient for Russia to make gains on the battlefield. The relative manpower situation is likely the most important factor that will determine the war's trajectory, particularly if Russia can sustain recruiting 20-30k a month. 15/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
The immediate problem is that Russia continues to advance on the battlefield, and has reached important locations while Ukraine faced ammunition shortages. Russia is bringing up reserves to Chasiv Yar, and will likely soon begin an assault on the city. 16/ https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1778947752929440148#m
The immediate problem is that Russia continues to advance on the battlefield, and has reached important locations while Ukraine faced ammunition shortages. Russia is bringing up reserves to Chasiv Yar, and will likely soon begin an assault on the city. 16/ https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1778947752929440148#m
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Russian forces are also expanding their foothold in Ocheretyne, which threatens Ukrainian positions nearby, and they have advanced into Krasnohrivka and have made recent gains on the Marinka-Novomykhailivka front. 16/
https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/48.1163/37.4383
Russian forces are also expanding their foothold in Ocheretyne, which threatens Ukrainian positions nearby, and they have advanced into Krasnohrivka and have made recent gains on the Marinka-Novomykhailivka front. 16/
https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/48.1163/37.4383
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Even with increased ammunition deliveries/expenditure, Ukraine might not be able to hold Chasiv Yar and other of these towns/cities, and Russia faces more favorable terrain once they get past Chasiv Yar, which could lead to an increase in the rate of advance. If Chasiv Yar falls, it will also put Ukrainian positions south of the city at risk. This is true for further Russian advances elsewhere. The delays in aid/mobilization have been costly. 18/
Even with increased ammunition deliveries/expenditure, Ukraine might not be able to hold Chasiv Yar and other of these towns/cities, and Russia faces more favorable terrain once they get past Chasiv Yar, which could lead to an increase in the rate of advance. If Chasiv Yar falls, it will also put Ukrainian positions south of the city at risk. This is true for further Russian advances elsewhere. The delays in aid/mobilization have been costly. 18/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
If Ukraine can stabilize the front and fix the manpower situation in 2024 when Russia has a number of advantages, 2025 could be more favorable because Western production capacity will increase and Russian equipment losses could become a greater issue. If the manpower situation does not improve, then the second half of 2024 will likely be more difficult for Ukraine than the first half. 19/
If Ukraine can stabilize the front and fix the manpower situation in 2024 when Russia has a number of advantages, 2025 could be more favorable because Western production capacity will increase and Russian equipment losses could become a greater issue. If the manpower situation does not improve, then the second half of 2024 will likely be more difficult for Ukraine than the first half. 19/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
This bill will be vital, but it needs to be part of a broader long-term strategy for Ukraine. Western countries need to consider how to help Ukraine compensate for Russia's current advantages, including increased deliveries of long-range missiles. 20/
This bill will be vital, but it needs to be part of a broader long-term strategy for Ukraine. Western countries need to consider how to help Ukraine compensate for Russia's current advantages, including increased deliveries of long-range missiles. 20/
vxTwitter / fixvx
Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael)
Much depends on the U.S. and European countries resourcing Ukraine's war effort, but it is important to articulate a vision for how those resources might best be used to rebuild Ukraine's advantage. Written with my good colleagues @RALee85 and @MassDara.…
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Updated map showing Russian gains. Russian forces seized Soloviove and Semenivka, have seized most of Ocheretyne and Kyslivka near Kupiansk, and advanced near Novokalynove and in Ivanivske near Chasiv Yar.
https://deepstatemap.live/en#16/49.6407/37.9145
t.me/DeepStateUA/19328
t.me/DeepStateUA/19329 https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1783619526136840477#m
Updated map showing Russian gains. Russian forces seized Soloviove and Semenivka, have seized most of Ocheretyne and Kyslivka near Kupiansk, and advanced near Novokalynove and in Ivanivske near Chasiv Yar.
https://deepstatemap.live/en#16/49.6407/37.9145
t.me/DeepStateUA/19328
t.me/DeepStateUA/19329 https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1783619526136840477#m