Rob Lee (Twitter)
Casualties + force requirements to secure supply lines and encircle cities leaves fewer forces available for offensives against Ukrainian forces. The longer this war goes on, the more casualties Russia will take, and an assault on Kyiv would mean thousands of casualties. 11/
Casualties + force requirements to secure supply lines and encircle cities leaves fewer forces available for offensives against Ukrainian forces. The longer this war goes on, the more casualties Russia will take, and an assault on Kyiv would mean thousands of casualties. 11/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
It was always going to be difficult for Russian forces to achieve the unrealistic political goals assigned to them for this war, but, without at least encircling Kyiv, it isn't clear if Russia can compel Ukraine to make significant concessions as part of a compromise. 12/
It was always going to be difficult for Russian forces to achieve the unrealistic political goals assigned to them for this war, but, without at least encircling Kyiv, it isn't clear if Russia can compel Ukraine to make significant concessions as part of a compromise. 12/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
If Russia can't take Mariupol or achieve serious successes around Kyiv and the JFO over the next two weeks, it will be increasingly unlikely that Russia will end this conflict with significant concessions from Kyiv (not just declaring no NATO membership). 13/
If Russia can't take Mariupol or achieve serious successes around Kyiv and the JFO over the next two weeks, it will be increasingly unlikely that Russia will end this conflict with significant concessions from Kyiv (not just declaring no NATO membership). 13/
MotolkoHelp (Twitter)
• 23:16-00:00 (Minsk time). Two fighters flew over Khoiniki to the south.
•23:21-23:50. Two helicopters landed at the airfield in Machulishchy (the first was probably Mi-26).
• 23:16-00:00 (Minsk time). Two fighters flew over Khoiniki to the south.
•23:21-23:50. Two helicopters landed at the airfield in Machulishchy (the first was probably Mi-26).
Rob Lee (Twitter)
If Russia doesn't have the forces to take Kyiv or Odesa, what is the point of further offensives and will they be worth further attrition of elite Russian forces? Given popular resistance in occupied areas, I doubt a large-scale occupation is the goal at this point. 14/
If Russia doesn't have the forces to take Kyiv or Odesa, what is the point of further offensives and will they be worth further attrition of elite Russian forces? Given popular resistance in occupied areas, I doubt a large-scale occupation is the goal at this point. 14/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
If Russia doesn't achieve serious successes over the next 2 weeks, I think this conflict will stagnate as attrition will limit both sides' ability to conduct offensive operations. Without further advances, Russia won't be able to negotiate from a sufficient position of strength.
If Russia doesn't achieve serious successes over the next 2 weeks, I think this conflict will stagnate as attrition will limit both sides' ability to conduct offensive operations. Without further advances, Russia won't be able to negotiate from a sufficient position of strength.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
@shashj Hard to say from just open sources, but the seizure of Mariupol is the most likely. I think encircling Kyiv is the least likely at this point, given the inability of the Russian Air Force to interdict supply lines and success of Ukrainian forces there so far.
@shashj Hard to say from just open sources, but the seizure of Mariupol is the most likely. I think encircling Kyiv is the least likely at this point, given the inability of the Russian Air Force to interdict supply lines and success of Ukrainian forces there so far.
Necro Mancer (Twitter)
Ефрейтор #227абр Никиткин Виктор Сергеевич 1997 г.р. из станицы Николаевской Краснодарского края насобирал много значков в Сирии. Ну, глядишь, и за Украину что-то получит. Правда, в этот раз, посмертно https://vk.com/wall712947712_14 #потерьнет #всрф #груз200
Ефрейтор #227абр Никиткин Виктор Сергеевич 1997 г.р. из станицы Николаевской Краснодарского края насобирал много значков в Сирии. Ну, глядишь, и за Украину что-то получит. Правда, в этот раз, посмертно https://vk.com/wall712947712_14 #потерьнет #всрф #груз200
Danvan (Twitter)
RT @volodarskijo: Андрій Луканюк та Іван Науменко зі Снятинщини загинули у боях за Україну https://twitter.com/volodarskijo/status/1504905160346288138/photo/1
RT @volodarskijo: Андрій Луканюк та Іван Науменко зі Снятинщини загинули у боях за Україну https://twitter.com/volodarskijo/status/1504905160346288138/photo/1
Rob Lee (Twitter)
The heavy losses among Russian generals and regimental/brigade commanders in Ukraine is an indication of how centralized decision-making is in the Russian military. Seems likely this will be a key lesson from this conflict. 2/
The heavy losses among Russian generals and regimental/brigade commanders in Ukraine is an indication of how centralized decision-making is in the Russian military. Seems likely this will be a key lesson from this conflict. 2/
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Danvan (Twitter)
RT @Nat_anest: Я збережу це відео та багато інших , і покажу все це своїм дітям, через декілька років, коли вони будуть готові таке сприйняти.
Щоб і вони ніколи не пробачили це росіянам. І ненавиділи їх теж за їх боягузтво та мовчання. https://twitter.com/Nat_anest/status/1504934967494725635/video/1
RT @Nat_anest: Я збережу це відео та багато інших , і покажу все це своїм дітям, через декілька років, коли вони будуть готові таке сприйняти.
Щоб і вони ніколи не пробачили це росіянам. І ненавиділи їх теж за їх боягузтво та мовчання. https://twitter.com/Nat_anest/status/1504934967494725635/video/1
🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (Twitter)
#Ukraine: This evening in #Luhansk Oblast, LNR forces lost a BMP-1 to Ukrainian forces, who recovered it in working condition with additional ammo. Another one was claimed to be destroyed, but there is no visual evidence for this.
#Ukraine: This evening in #Luhansk Oblast, LNR forces lost a BMP-1 to Ukrainian forces, who recovered it in working condition with additional ammo. Another one was claimed to be destroyed, but there is no visual evidence for this.
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
1104/
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@anadoluagency:
A shocking video shows the moment when a Russian strike hit factories in the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol https://t.co/haP9HkmnbI
1104/
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@anadoluagency:
A shocking video shows the moment when a Russian strike hit factories in the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol https://t.co/haP9HkmnbI
Danvan (Twitter)
RT @Hektor6666: Друзі (штопаний Дон) Кадиров воспалілся🤣 і заявив, що відправляє на війну в Україну ще тисячу чеченців на чолі зі своїм помічником по силовому блоку Апти Алаудіновим потрібно його зробити впізнаваємим (ретвіт)❗️
Дон дон, дякуємо за фото. Сафарі починається👊 https://twitter.com/Hektor6666/status/1504479572313608203/photo/1
RT @Hektor6666: Друзі (штопаний Дон) Кадиров воспалілся🤣 і заявив, що відправляє на війну в Україну ще тисячу чеченців на чолі зі своїм помічником по силовому блоку Апти Алаудіновим потрібно його зробити впізнаваємим (ретвіт)❗️
Дон дон, дякуємо за фото. Сафарі починається👊 https://twitter.com/Hektor6666/status/1504479572313608203/photo/1
Dan (Twitter)
RT @EerikNKross: 🇺🇦 forces have killed the commander of the 🇷🇺8th Guards Combined Arms Army, Lt Gen Andrey Mordvichev, in an attack at Kherson airport. Highest ranking 🇷🇺 KIA in the war. 8th army commands the Russian forces in Donbass since 2017.
RT @EerikNKross: 🇺🇦 forces have killed the commander of the 🇷🇺8th Guards Combined Arms Army, Lt Gen Andrey Mordvichev, in an attack at Kherson airport. Highest ranking 🇷🇺 KIA in the war. 8th army commands the Russian forces in Donbass since 2017.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Ukraine's 79th Air Assault Brigade in Mikolaiv was targeted by Russian forces.
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/raketattack-i-morse-levande-och-doda--gravs-ut-ur-ruinerna/
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_2296799
Ukraine's 79th Air Assault Brigade in Mikolaiv was targeted by Russian forces.
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/raketattack-i-morse-levande-och-doda--gravs-ut-ur-ruinerna/
https://vk.com/milinfolive?w=wall-123538639_2296799