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Rob Lee (Twitter)
Russian forces have been able to push armored formations to Brovary, to the east of Kyiv, but they were repelled last week as well. It isn't clear if or when Russia will be able to actually encircle Kyiv, and Ukraine can continue to resupply its capitol.7/
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@RALee85:
Video of a close-range ambush by Ukrainian forces on a Russian armored column with anti-tank weapons. Presumably from yesterday in Brovary.
https://t.co/LYjM3blXKU https://t.co/JfE3tsr8br
Russian forces have been able to push armored formations to Brovary, to the east of Kyiv, but they were repelled last week as well. It isn't clear if or when Russia will be able to actually encircle Kyiv, and Ukraine can continue to resupply its capitol.7/
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@RALee85:
Video of a close-range ambush by Ukrainian forces on a Russian armored column with anti-tank weapons. Presumably from yesterday in Brovary.
https://t.co/LYjM3blXKU https://t.co/JfE3tsr8br
Rob Lee (Twitter)
It is becoming a numbers game for Russia. Partial encirclements of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv all require Russian forces as does the fighting in Mariupol. Other forces have to be used to secure supply lines from ambushes and hold occupied cities where there is resistance. 8/
It is becoming a numbers game for Russia. Partial encirclements of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv all require Russian forces as does the fighting in Mariupol. Other forces have to be used to secure supply lines from ambushes and hold occupied cities where there is resistance. 8/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Casualties are a factor. The 150k figure includes air defense and support troops. The share of combat troops is smaller and they're taking the losses. Russia deployed 120 BTGs with ~800 soldiers each=~95,000 troops. Plus ~15-25k separatist forces and National Guard troops. 9/
Casualties are a factor. The 150k figure includes air defense and support troops. The share of combat troops is smaller and they're taking the losses. Russia deployed 120 BTGs with ~800 soldiers each=~95,000 troops. Plus ~15-25k separatist forces and National Guard troops. 9/
Necro Mancer (Twitter)
Отчего у Вити грустное ебало? Оттого что Витю что-то заебало. А нефиг было сержанту в/ч из Мурманской обл. Вите #Шохин'у лазить по Украине без разрешения https://vk.com/wall318086447_3020 #потерьнет #груз200 #всрф
Отчего у Вити грустное ебало? Оттого что Витю что-то заебало. А нефиг было сержанту в/ч из Мурманской обл. Вите #Шохин'у лазить по Украине без разрешения https://vk.com/wall318086447_3020 #потерьнет #груз200 #всрф
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Russia may have 90% of its combat power still available, but the casualties have disproportionally affected its elite units, like the VDV, razvedchiki, and spetsnaz, and maneuver units. Those are the units needs to occupy territory and seize Kyiv. 10/
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@JackDetsch:
NEW: U.S. assesses that Russia still has approximately 90 percent of combat power arrayed on Ukraine's border "still available" 3 weeks after invasion: senior U.S. defense official.
Russia assembled as many as 190,000 troops on Ukraine's border before invading on Feb. 24.
Russia may have 90% of its combat power still available, but the casualties have disproportionally affected its elite units, like the VDV, razvedchiki, and spetsnaz, and maneuver units. Those are the units needs to occupy territory and seize Kyiv. 10/
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@JackDetsch:
NEW: U.S. assesses that Russia still has approximately 90 percent of combat power arrayed on Ukraine's border "still available" 3 weeks after invasion: senior U.S. defense official.
Russia assembled as many as 190,000 troops on Ukraine's border before invading on Feb. 24.
Twitter
Jack Detsch
NEW: U.S. assesses that Russia still has approximately 90 percent of combat power arrayed on Ukraine's border "still available" 3 weeks after invasion: senior U.S. defense official. Russia assembled as many as 190,000 troops on Ukraine's border before invading…
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Casualties + force requirements to secure supply lines and encircle cities leaves fewer forces available for offensives against Ukrainian forces. The longer this war goes on, the more casualties Russia will take, and an assault on Kyiv would mean thousands of casualties. 11/
Casualties + force requirements to secure supply lines and encircle cities leaves fewer forces available for offensives against Ukrainian forces. The longer this war goes on, the more casualties Russia will take, and an assault on Kyiv would mean thousands of casualties. 11/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
It was always going to be difficult for Russian forces to achieve the unrealistic political goals assigned to them for this war, but, without at least encircling Kyiv, it isn't clear if Russia can compel Ukraine to make significant concessions as part of a compromise. 12/
It was always going to be difficult for Russian forces to achieve the unrealistic political goals assigned to them for this war, but, without at least encircling Kyiv, it isn't clear if Russia can compel Ukraine to make significant concessions as part of a compromise. 12/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
If Russia can't take Mariupol or achieve serious successes around Kyiv and the JFO over the next two weeks, it will be increasingly unlikely that Russia will end this conflict with significant concessions from Kyiv (not just declaring no NATO membership). 13/
If Russia can't take Mariupol or achieve serious successes around Kyiv and the JFO over the next two weeks, it will be increasingly unlikely that Russia will end this conflict with significant concessions from Kyiv (not just declaring no NATO membership). 13/
MotolkoHelp (Twitter)
• 23:16-00:00 (Minsk time). Two fighters flew over Khoiniki to the south.
•23:21-23:50. Two helicopters landed at the airfield in Machulishchy (the first was probably Mi-26).
• 23:16-00:00 (Minsk time). Two fighters flew over Khoiniki to the south.
•23:21-23:50. Two helicopters landed at the airfield in Machulishchy (the first was probably Mi-26).
Rob Lee (Twitter)
If Russia doesn't have the forces to take Kyiv or Odesa, what is the point of further offensives and will they be worth further attrition of elite Russian forces? Given popular resistance in occupied areas, I doubt a large-scale occupation is the goal at this point. 14/
If Russia doesn't have the forces to take Kyiv or Odesa, what is the point of further offensives and will they be worth further attrition of elite Russian forces? Given popular resistance in occupied areas, I doubt a large-scale occupation is the goal at this point. 14/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
If Russia doesn't achieve serious successes over the next 2 weeks, I think this conflict will stagnate as attrition will limit both sides' ability to conduct offensive operations. Without further advances, Russia won't be able to negotiate from a sufficient position of strength.
If Russia doesn't achieve serious successes over the next 2 weeks, I think this conflict will stagnate as attrition will limit both sides' ability to conduct offensive operations. Without further advances, Russia won't be able to negotiate from a sufficient position of strength.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
@shashj Hard to say from just open sources, but the seizure of Mariupol is the most likely. I think encircling Kyiv is the least likely at this point, given the inability of the Russian Air Force to interdict supply lines and success of Ukrainian forces there so far.
@shashj Hard to say from just open sources, but the seizure of Mariupol is the most likely. I think encircling Kyiv is the least likely at this point, given the inability of the Russian Air Force to interdict supply lines and success of Ukrainian forces there so far.
Necro Mancer (Twitter)
Ефрейтор #227абр Никиткин Виктор Сергеевич 1997 г.р. из станицы Николаевской Краснодарского края насобирал много значков в Сирии. Ну, глядишь, и за Украину что-то получит. Правда, в этот раз, посмертно https://vk.com/wall712947712_14 #потерьнет #всрф #груз200
Ефрейтор #227абр Никиткин Виктор Сергеевич 1997 г.р. из станицы Николаевской Краснодарского края насобирал много значков в Сирии. Ну, глядишь, и за Украину что-то получит. Правда, в этот раз, посмертно https://vk.com/wall712947712_14 #потерьнет #всрф #груз200
Danvan (Twitter)
RT @volodarskijo: Андрій Луканюк та Іван Науменко зі Снятинщини загинули у боях за Україну https://twitter.com/volodarskijo/status/1504905160346288138/photo/1
RT @volodarskijo: Андрій Луканюк та Іван Науменко зі Снятинщини загинули у боях за Україну https://twitter.com/volodarskijo/status/1504905160346288138/photo/1
Rob Lee (Twitter)
The heavy losses among Russian generals and regimental/brigade commanders in Ukraine is an indication of how centralized decision-making is in the Russian military. Seems likely this will be a key lesson from this conflict. 2/
The heavy losses among Russian generals and regimental/brigade commanders in Ukraine is an indication of how centralized decision-making is in the Russian military. Seems likely this will be a key lesson from this conflict. 2/
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Danvan (Twitter)
RT @Nat_anest: Я збережу це відео та багато інших , і покажу все це своїм дітям, через декілька років, коли вони будуть готові таке сприйняти.
Щоб і вони ніколи не пробачили це росіянам. І ненавиділи їх теж за їх боягузтво та мовчання. https://twitter.com/Nat_anest/status/1504934967494725635/video/1
RT @Nat_anest: Я збережу це відео та багато інших , і покажу все це своїм дітям, через декілька років, коли вони будуть готові таке сприйняти.
Щоб і вони ніколи не пробачили це росіянам. І ненавиділи їх теж за їх боягузтво та мовчання. https://twitter.com/Nat_anest/status/1504934967494725635/video/1