The Lookout (Twitter)

RT @CovertShores: ***UPDATE***

Still a significant #Russian Navy presence in Mediterrean, in support of operations in #Ukraine

Highlights:
* Nuclear submarine (tbc)
* 2 SLAVA Class cruisers near NATO Carriers

W/@detresfa_

See thread for more details https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1504864392730578945/photo/1

🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (Twitter)

#Ukraine: In #Kharkiv Oblast, local TDF forces hit a single Russian BMP(-2) with a RPG, destroying it.

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Mikolaiv is significant because Russia needs to take it if its forces are to seriously threaten Odesa, which appears to be a goal. However, the city continues to hold, and Russia has taken losses in the fighting. An amphibious landing would also be risky without further gains. 2/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Mariupol is the first large city Russian forces have attempted to seize where Ukrainian forces are willing to fight block-by-block. Russia is progressing, but it is slow and costly. Mariupol gives us an indication of how costly an assault on Kyiv would be. 3/

🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (Twitter)

#Ukraine: A Russian BRM-1K recently destroyed, precise location unknown.

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Mariupol is important because the forces committed to its seizure can't be used elsewhere. If/when Russia takes it, these forces can be committed to helping encircle Ukrainian forces to the north around the Donbas. The longer Mariupol holds out, the worse it is for Russia. 4/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Russia's most recent successes have been in taking Izyum to the north of the JFO area and expanding in the SW of the Donbas. If Russian forces make a concerted advance from the south and to the SW from Izyum, they could threaten to encircle the JFO units. 5/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

The significance of Kyiv is obvious, but Russia has struggled to encircle the city. Despite an air assault on Hostomel on the first day, Russian forces have been held back in the Bucha/Irpin area ever since and have sustained heavy casualties in the area. 6/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Russian forces have been able to push armored formations to Brovary, to the east of Kyiv, but they were repelled last week as well. It isn't clear if or when Russia will be able to actually encircle Kyiv, and Ukraine can continue to resupply its capitol.7/
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@RALee85:
Video of a close-range ambush by Ukrainian forces on a Russian armored column with anti-tank weapons. Presumably from yesterday in Brovary.
https://t.co/LYjM3blXKU https://t.co/JfE3tsr8br

Rob Lee (Twitter)

It is becoming a numbers game for Russia. Partial encirclements of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv all require Russian forces as does the fighting in Mariupol. Other forces have to be used to secure supply lines from ambushes and hold occupied cities where there is resistance. 8/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Casualties are a factor. The 150k figure includes air defense and support troops. The share of combat troops is smaller and they're taking the losses. Russia deployed 120 BTGs with ~800 soldiers each=~95,000 troops. Plus ~15-25k separatist forces and National Guard troops. 9/