Def Mon (Twitter)

I do not think the bigger road has been M03 has been in full use for a while. Another ting to look out for is if AFU decide to pull back behind the Bakhmutovka River inside the city. It might be a sing of a pending withdrawal from the city.

Def Mon (Twitter)

Bakhmut S
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka and Ozaryanivka. As can be seen, Ru forces have managed to advance along the canal in the forest belt NW of Klishchiivka. Still unclear if AFU lost their fortified positions N of Klishchiivka.

Def Mon (Twitter)

The situation is getting worse in Bakhmut, both of the main supply roads in to the town are now extremely dangerous, to travel. There are a few smaller less suitable roads which might still be safe to use.

Def Mon (Twitter)

If the Ru progress rate keeps up, Ukraine will possibly have to abandon Bakhmut in 2-4 weeks time. It can be prevented or the timeframe might change if AFU manage to stop, revert or slow the RU progress. Take this as a warning to get mentally prepared rather than a prediction.

Def Mon (Twitter)

Vuhledar
No news for this area today. Fighting is ongoing south of Vuhledar, but I don't see any real change. What I'm looking for here are attempts to envelop Vuhledar from the west to cut supplies to the city.

Def Mon (Twitter)

A change in pace might indicate movement along the frontline and a change of tactic. Ru forces have suffered large defeats twice trying to attack Vuhledar head on with some of their best units.

Def Mon (Twitter)

A lot of people say the Russians are stupid, but I disagree. They have adapted well to battlefield changes. I think one major difference between how we define success compared to the Russians is they only are about if they made progress, but we also consider the cost.

Def Mon (Twitter)

Ukraine has just secured some large aid packages, with even more things being discussed at the moment. Their forces now should not be symbolic wins to show the world they can make progress.

Def Mon (Twitter)

I believe the best way for Ukraine to secure future success and preserve offensive potential is to swap to more of an aggressive defense rather than offense.

Def Mon (Twitter)

It seems RuAF are willing to commit their VDV and Naval infantry in the Vulhedar, Bakhmut and Kreminna area. These as well as the wagner cannon fodder have proven during the course of the war to be the most effective. They have also proven to be effective in defense.

Def Mon (Twitter)

If Ukraine now can swap to seek opportunities to do smaller local attacks, especially in the north rather than trying to advance, they could possibly attrit the RU elite forces enough to get in a good position for a spring offensive.

Def Mon (Twitter)

We must not forget, both Ukraine and Russia are actively training and setting up new units. Both sided are largely made up by mobilized personnel with very little training.

Def Mon (Twitter)

I believe the deciding factors during the spring/summer will be the level of training and ammunition availability. It will be very important for Ukraine to actually be able to maneuver effectively with the new mechanized equipment provided by the west.

Def Mon (Twitter)

It would be a big advantage for the AFU if the brigades equipped with western IFVs and tanks will be able to conduct offensive operations at night. This is extremely hard and requires a lot of training and it will be interesting to see if the will be able to do it.

Def Mon (Twitter)

RT @OAlexanderDK: Looks like Ukraine is getting the upgraded M2A2-ODS SA version of the Bradley rather than the M2A2-ODS.

The Situation Awareness upgrade includes several improvements over the M2A2-ODS including the driver camera and upgraded sights. https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1620143329634832386/photo/1

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

@NNCveti Ну, видать пытались побыстрее съебаться и водила не справился с управлением