Necro Mancer (Twitter)

RT @Mortis_Banned: Правительство: продлевает контракты до окончания периода мобилизации

Российские краткосрочники, которые решили поехать на 3-6 месяцев подзаработать: https://twitter.com/Mortis_Banned/status/1572541681278545921/photo/1

 Necro Mancer (Twitter)

@VictorM90380007 At least 6298 https://xn--r1a.website/pechalbeda200/8499

 The Lookout (Twitter)

Good thoughts. While I still think Russian nuclear use is unlikely, a Russia under pressure is unpredictable, so nothing can be ruled out.

Preparing the public for what may be ahead of us, is a good advice. This is best done through a calm and open debate.
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@CameronJJJ:
I think we have to prepare the public for the fact that we could be playing nuclear chicken with Putin in short order, especially if Russia annexes additional Ukrainian territories. We may think he's bluffing and risk is acceptable, but we would still be calling a nuclear bluff.

 Rob Lee (Twitter)

Thread:
1) There are more unknowns than knowns at this point
2) It is one of the most significant/riskiest political decisions Putin has ever made
3) He is still resisting a broader mobilization
4) It is an acknowledgment that Russia's war was failing and a change had to be made
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@DAlperovitch:
New video released in an interview format of Defense Minister Shoigu. Quick thread 🧵 https://t.co/qqkbxKQyJY

The Lookout (Twitter)

However, this will be uncomfortable, as the general public isn't used to hearing this, especially those who didn't experience the Cold War.

Calm, steadfastness and resolve is needed if we are to stare down Russia in a potential nuclear crisis.

 Rob Lee (Twitter)

Much of this depends on how this order is applied. The number of reservists with combat experience is limited, though they may include everyone who deployed to Syria. Shoigu is notoriously unreliable when it comes to figures so don't treat them as fact. 2/
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@DAlperovitch:
Shoigu on partial mobilization: We are taking reservists who:
A) Have served
B) Have military specialist skills
C) Have combat experience

Ed: Not a lot of people would meet all of those criteria

The Lookout (Twitter)

RT @Capt_Navy: @RALee85 The current decree on mobilization allows you to mobilize anyone and as much as you want, despite the fact that there is a term "partially" in the text.The next step may not be general mobilization,but the declaration of martial law in 🇷🇺. It will be a completely different song.

Rob Lee (Twitter)

There are two important immediate effects from this order: conscripts currently serving in the Russian military likely will be deployed to fight in Ukraine, and volunteers serving on short contracts will be stop-lossed into continuing to serve. 3/
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@DmitryOpines:
Potentially the most significant part of Putin's partial mobilisation decree:

All military service contracts (typically 3-6 months) currently in force extended indefinitely.

@IAPonomarenko
@RALee85 @shashj @WarMonitor3 https://t.co/4Ik95WZSGh

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@Reuters We have to take his fear tactics seriously? He found the weak spot in the West being scared of Russia’s Nukes, and keeps exploiting it with threats of nuclear weapons. It’s a psychological game.

NATO must understand that Russia won’t use Nukes if Ukraine gets advanced weapons.🇺🇦

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

Укроп нашёл творения морфов и просто в шоке (полное видео https://youtu.be/Q7uxbS5ECMs) #роспроп

Rob Lee (Twitter)

In the short-term, those two steps could be enough to prevent a collapse of Russian forces. Otherwise, Russia's manpower issues could have become catastrophic this winter when many short-term volunteers likely would not sign another contract. 4/

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@ZuluMbekezeli @EurysOps @Reuters So Let me get this straight.
You completely avoided the comment about Ukraine, and went to: What About the Middle East?

The Middle East has nothing to do with Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

Rob Lee (Twitter)

But the war will now increasingly be fought on the Russian side by people who do not want to be there. The difference in morale, unit cohesion, and other critical factors between Ukrainian and Russian units will grow even greater. 5/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

@chheinzel Those parts of Ukraine are about to "legally" become part of Russia, which would allow their deployment. But we'll have to wait and see.

 Rob Lee (Twitter)

This is true, which is why we'll need to wait and see how the order is applied. Russia may start by mobilizing a small share of reservists under the narrow conditions Shoigu mentioned and then increase that over time in response to developments. 6/
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@Capt_Navy:
@RALee85 The current decree on mobilization allows you to mobilize anyone and as much as you want, despite the fact that there is a term "partially" in the text.The next step may not be general mobilization,but the declaration of martial law in 🇷🇺. It will be a completely different song.

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Russia dismantled parts of the Soviet mobilization system with cadre units with officers and equipment ready to take on mobilized conscripts. Conscripts and reservists may be used as combat replacements to fill out understrength Russian units currently in Ukraine, instead. 7/

Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (Twitter)

@auto_glam Meanwhile, the rest of Russians:

- Dear, why hasn't our son returned from the supermarket yet?
- Let's not talk about politics again…

The Lookout (Twitter)

RT @kromark: A new batch of cold-war era T62-M tanks (MY1983) for newly mobilized Russian soldiers is on its way to Ukraine. Photo taken on Sep. 11 in Millerovo, Rostov region (source https://archive.ph/DFQ7c). https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1572547554675687428/photo/1