Rob Lee (Twitter)

Ukraine now has very good NATO artillery with PGMs and HIMARS/M270, and has a greater quantity of tubes and ammunition than in early summer. It has enough 155mm ammunition to conduct an offensive and its crews are proficient with these systems. 3/
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@RALee85:
"As of Aug. 24, the U.S. military said it had provided Ukraine with up to 806,000 rounds of 155 mm ammunition."
https://t.co/NfclJyjXR4 https://t.co/EQe4lCNIXe

Rob Lee (Twitter)

But it is less clear if Ukraine has sufficient tanks, IFVs, and other system, which are critical to for any offensive. And you need well-trained forces (with armor) to conduct offensive operations well and to rapidly exploit breakthroughs. 4/
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@RALee85:
"The mission had carried two objectives, he said: to find Russian positions and to find abandoned equipment... 'We’re fighting with whatever we captured from the enemy,' Bogdan said, noting that 80% of his current supplies was captured Russian equipment."
https://t.co/2DWd9yL4tD https://t.co/cfHt1dK5JP

Rob Lee (Twitter)

In order to mass sufficient forces that are well-trained for an offensive in Kherson, Ukraine may have to pull units or reserves away from other parts of the front. That means Russia may be able to take terrain elsewhere as a result. 5/

🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (Twitter)

#Ukraine: A Ukrainian YPR-765 armored personnel carrier with a Browning M2 heavy machine gun was captured by the Russian army in #Kherson Oblast. These APCs were donated to Ukraine by Netherlands - and this is the first vehicle of this type to be lost so far.

Rob Lee (Twitter)

So any analysis of whether Ukraine will have success in Kherson depends on making estimates about a number of critical tangible factors (other people may have a better estimate/understanding). When you add several uncertain estimates together, you have weak data. 6/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

So I can't make a high-confidence prediction, but Ukraine has a number of advantages pursuing a campaign in Kherson. It may not have an overall advantage in artillery and armor, but it likely does in Kherson and certainly in tactical engagements when it masses them. 7/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Russia depended on a significant advantage in artillery rounds fired in the Donbas. Russia can resupply its forces across the Dnipro with ferries, but it likely can't deliver enough artillery ammunition and other heavy equipment if Ukrainian leans heavily on artillery. 8/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Russia will also have difficulty deploying reserves across the river. Kyiv has advantages in Kherson and will likely achieve successes, but without a solid understanding of force ratios, equipment, # of well-trained Ukrainian units, etc., it is hard to predict how much or when.9/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

So I don't know how much terrain Ukraine will be able to take back this month, but, when we look at the medium-to-long-term, I think manpower issues will become a greater problem for Russia and Ukraine can make Russia's occupation efforts more costly and less sustainable. 10/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

Russia's force in Ukraine depends on volunteers who signed 3 or 6 month contracts. Will they sign another contract? Can Russia keep meeting its manpower needs without mobilization? I don't know, but I have a feeling many volunteers won't want to spend the winter in a trench. 11/

Rob Lee (Twitter)

The 3rd Army Corps deployment will give Russia new forces to occupy frontage. It is more likely its deployment will make a Ukrainian offensive more difficult than facilitating a Russian offensive. But will its battalions with 6 month contract volunteers exist by February? 12/

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

Допрос пациента: это не взвод, это просто кучка народа, "ашники" - вольные, "кашники" - это зэки; готовили в Стаханове на какой-то промзоне; гранатомётом умел пользоваться только один (полное видео https://youtu.be/vImWLr32N8Y) #Вагнер #роа #warcrimes

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

@don_metadon @T3ZLA_ Нет, см. на его жетон, там я видео допроса сейчас докинул, это обозначение зэков, у вольных буква "А"

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

@AnjeiStrong Зависит от того, к кому попадет, могут его просто зачморить

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

@AnjeiStrong @menzurra @T3ZLA_ Хз, может просто номер группы, мало данных для выводов