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Status-6 (Twitter)
Another footage of the moment of a blast in the sky over Kharkov Oblast tonight. Looks like an interception indeed.
Another footage of the moment of a blast in the sky over Kharkov Oblast tonight. Looks like an interception indeed.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
I think the best explanation is that these attacks are being done by UAVs launched by Ukrainian SOF in Crimea. The fact that we've seen two UAV attacks in Sevastopol and Russian air defenses active many nights in Kerch, Sevastopol, and Yevpatoria also points to this explanation.
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@shashj:
“My best guess, despite the lack of social media coverage, is that long-range missiles or drones conducted the attacks. ATACMs supplied by third countries would be that simplest explanation, but if that comes out, the US will have been caught lying” https://t.co/xXKR5LGOWE
I think the best explanation is that these attacks are being done by UAVs launched by Ukrainian SOF in Crimea. The fact that we've seen two UAV attacks in Sevastopol and Russian air defenses active many nights in Kerch, Sevastopol, and Yevpatoria also points to this explanation.
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@shashj:
“My best guess, despite the lack of social media coverage, is that long-range missiles or drones conducted the attacks. ATACMs supplied by third countries would be that simplest explanation, but if that comes out, the US will have been caught lying” https://t.co/xXKR5LGOWE
Rob Lee (Twitter)
The reason people think ATACMS might be involved is because of the range from the front lines and the size of the craters at Saki Airbase. The other explanation is that Russia left bombs and other ammunition near the aircraft and UAVs targeted them. 2/
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@JosephHDempsey:
Principle sites of explosions would appear two probably open air ammunition storage areas and two possible covered storage areas https://t.co/BAz0oLEZcu
The reason people think ATACMS might be involved is because of the range from the front lines and the size of the craters at Saki Airbase. The other explanation is that Russia left bombs and other ammunition near the aircraft and UAVs targeted them. 2/
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@JosephHDempsey:
Principle sites of explosions would appear two probably open air ammunition storage areas and two possible covered storage areas https://t.co/BAz0oLEZcu
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Even small UAVs with grenades or 82mm mortar rounds could be enough to detonate aviation bombs, which could lead to large craters. Ukraine had recent sat photos knowing where these bombs were located to target them. I think @Justin_Br0nk was right. 3/
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@Justin_Br0nk:
The VKS has a bad habit of leaving piles of munitions next to parked aircraft, including ones that are fuelled and armed. My working theory is that Ukrainian loitering munitions or saboteurs caused an initial fuel fire that engulfed either piles of bombs or armed aircraft..
(3/4) https://t.co/GwFlZ3TXKG
Even small UAVs with grenades or 82mm mortar rounds could be enough to detonate aviation bombs, which could lead to large craters. Ukraine had recent sat photos knowing where these bombs were located to target them. I think @Justin_Br0nk was right. 3/
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@Justin_Br0nk:
The VKS has a bad habit of leaving piles of munitions next to parked aircraft, including ones that are fuelled and armed. My working theory is that Ukrainian loitering munitions or saboteurs caused an initial fuel fire that engulfed either piles of bombs or armed aircraft..
(3/4) https://t.co/GwFlZ3TXKG
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
As I said in the first tweet, we know Ukraine is conducting UAV attacks in Crimea, and if the UAVs approached Saki from the east or south, it makes sense that they wouldn't necessarily be videotaped (there were more people on the beaches or north of the base). 4/
As I said in the first tweet, we know Ukraine is conducting UAV attacks in Crimea, and if the UAVs approached Saki from the east or south, it makes sense that they wouldn't necessarily be videotaped (there were more people on the beaches or north of the base). 4/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
If Ukraine was using ATACMS, Russia would know and they would say so. Moscow has been trying to paint this as a war with NATO and the West, not just with Ukraine. Russia blames HIMARS GMLRS for the majority of strikes behind Russian lines. Why wouldn't they say something? 5/
If Ukraine was using ATACMS, Russia would know and they would say so. Moscow has been trying to paint this as a war with NATO and the West, not just with Ukraine. Russia blames HIMARS GMLRS for the majority of strikes behind Russian lines. Why wouldn't they say something? 5/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Ukrainian officials have said the attack was conducted by Ukrainian SOF. Also, if Ukraine had ATACMS, there are a number of high-value targets that have not been attacked. Why aren't we seeing similar attacks beyond GMLRS/Tochka-U range in the Donbas? 6/
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@RALee85:
"A Ukrainian government official told The Washington Post on Wednesday that an airfield explosion in occupied Crimea was the work of Ukrainian special forces." @ikhurshudyan https://t.co/jEMkrilHK1
Ukrainian officials have said the attack was conducted by Ukrainian SOF. Also, if Ukraine had ATACMS, there are a number of high-value targets that have not been attacked. Why aren't we seeing similar attacks beyond GMLRS/Tochka-U range in the Donbas? 6/
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@RALee85:
"A Ukrainian government official told The Washington Post on Wednesday that an airfield explosion in occupied Crimea was the work of Ukrainian special forces." @ikhurshudyan https://t.co/jEMkrilHK1
Rob Lee (Twitter)
When the US provided HIMARS, US officials made a clear point that ATACMS would not be provided because of escalation risks. If the US provided them now, it would give Moscow the signal that the US' escalation appetite is greater. I doubt the Biden admin wants to signal that. 7/
When the US provided HIMARS, US officials made a clear point that ATACMS would not be provided because of escalation risks. If the US provided them now, it would give Moscow the signal that the US' escalation appetite is greater. I doubt the Biden admin wants to signal that. 7/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Notably, there have been other attacks in Crimea, but none showed the huge craters or explosions that occurred at Saki Airbase. That indicates that the large explosions at Saki were the result of bombs or fuel exploding, not necessarily the munition used. 8/
Notably, there have been other attacks in Crimea, but none showed the huge craters or explosions that occurred at Saki Airbase. That indicates that the large explosions at Saki were the result of bombs or fuel exploding, not necessarily the munition used. 8/
Necro Mancer (Twitter)
#Вышков, Брянская обл., в уголке памяти Вышковской школы открыли мемориальную доску мертвому выпускнику Максу https://guberniya.tv/obshhestvo/v-pamyat-o-pogibshem-na-ukraine-bryantse-maksime-sarakvashine-otkryli-memorialnuyu-dosku/ #груз200 #всрф #потерьнет #Сараквашин #мемориал
#Вышков, Брянская обл., в уголке памяти Вышковской школы открыли мемориальную доску мертвому выпускнику Максу https://guberniya.tv/obshhestvo/v-pamyat-o-pogibshem-na-ukraine-bryantse-maksime-sarakvashine-otkryli-memorialnuyu-dosku/ #груз200 #всрф #потерьнет #Сараквашин #мемориал
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
Why hasn't Belbek airfield been destroyed? Why hasn't the Black Sea Fleet been targeted in port? Why hasn't the Antonovsky bridge been targeted with ATACMS, which would do far more damage than GMLRS? We would see army-level command posts destroyed if Ukraine had ATACMS. 9/
Why hasn't Belbek airfield been destroyed? Why hasn't the Black Sea Fleet been targeted in port? Why hasn't the Antonovsky bridge been targeted with ATACMS, which would do far more damage than GMLRS? We would see army-level command posts destroyed if Ukraine had ATACMS. 9/