Dan (Twitter)
So after 13 new RuAF losses in twt 13+14, a new total for Bilohorivka - 82 vehicles + 2 boats destroyed/abandoned + a bridge section:
14 T-72
35 BMP-1
2 BMP-2
17 unknown AFV (likely most BMP-1)
5 MT-LB
2 BMD/BTR-D
2 BREM-1
1 PTS-3
5 PMP trucks (2 likely recovered)
2 BMK boats
So after 13 new RuAF losses in twt 13+14, a new total for Bilohorivka - 82 vehicles + 2 boats destroyed/abandoned + a bridge section:
14 T-72
35 BMP-1
2 BMP-2
17 unknown AFV (likely most BMP-1)
5 MT-LB
2 BMD/BTR-D
2 BREM-1
1 PTS-3
5 PMP trucks (2 likely recovered)
2 BMK boats
Dan (Twitter)
16. The number of lost IFVs/AFVs suggest elements of 2 BTGs crossed. Inform Napalm states one is from 74 Guards Motor Rifle Bde. By looking at BMPs in film in twt 12 IMO 74th got towards Bilhorivka, while 35 MR Bde with BMP-1s were smashed at the crossing.
-----------
@Haruspexut:
@InformNapalm claim insider sources revealed Russia's 74th MRB sent 550 men over the river at Bilohorivka, with only 65 surviving. Special political and psychological officers are now trying to pressure them to keep fighting. https://t.co/oTQEZeTA17
16. The number of lost IFVs/AFVs suggest elements of 2 BTGs crossed. Inform Napalm states one is from 74 Guards Motor Rifle Bde. By looking at BMPs in film in twt 12 IMO 74th got towards Bilhorivka, while 35 MR Bde with BMP-1s were smashed at the crossing.
-----------
@Haruspexut:
@InformNapalm claim insider sources revealed Russia's 74th MRB sent 550 men over the river at Bilohorivka, with only 65 surviving. Special political and psychological officers are now trying to pressure them to keep fighting. https://t.co/oTQEZeTA17
Dan (Twitter)
17. My guess: 74th Grds Motor Rifle Bde in the vanguard reached Bilohorivka (twt 12), but 35 Motor Rifle Bde (twt 7-11) got destroyed in forest while waiting to exploit a breakthrough that didn't come. For sure 'disastrous' losses + maybe command losses.👇
-----------
@mdmitri91:
Igor Girkin talks about Severskyi Donetsk defeat and mentions 'senior staff losses' which he won't be going into any detail about. https://t.co/PcQOJfcG8B
17. My guess: 74th Grds Motor Rifle Bde in the vanguard reached Bilohorivka (twt 12), but 35 Motor Rifle Bde (twt 7-11) got destroyed in forest while waiting to exploit a breakthrough that didn't come. For sure 'disastrous' losses + maybe command losses.👇
-----------
@mdmitri91:
Igor Girkin talks about Severskyi Donetsk defeat and mentions 'senior staff losses' which he won't be going into any detail about. https://t.co/PcQOJfcG8B
Dan (Twitter)
@bishwa55900127 Yes 2 RuAF units with BMP-1 have been deployed in Ukraine. The 69th Covering Brigade (fortress brigade) + the 35 Motor Rifle Brigade which is who we likely see here in film. They have already been located in the Kreminna - Lyman area. I have film of them both in other areas.
@bishwa55900127 Yes 2 RuAF units with BMP-1 have been deployed in Ukraine. The 69th Covering Brigade (fortress brigade) + the 35 Motor Rifle Brigade which is who we likely see here in film. They have already been located in the Kreminna - Lyman area. I have film of them both in other areas.
Dan (Twitter)
@0korkle0 @BilboBa67366673 Yes 2 RuAF units with BMP-1 have been deployed in Ukraine. The 69th Covering Brigade (fortress brigade) + the 35 Motor Rifle Brigade which is who we likely see here in film. They have already been located in the Kreminna - Lyman area. I have film of them both in other areas.
@0korkle0 @BilboBa67366673 Yes 2 RuAF units with BMP-1 have been deployed in Ukraine. The 69th Covering Brigade (fortress brigade) + the 35 Motor Rifle Brigade which is who we likely see here in film. They have already been located in the Kreminna - Lyman area. I have film of them both in other areas.
Dan (Twitter)
@Raskl20 But their BMP-1 argument is mute as 2 RuAF units with BMP-1 are deployed in Ukraine: 69th Covering Bde (fortress brigade) + 35 Motor Rifle Bde which is who we likely see here in film. They have already been located in the Kreminna/Lyman area. I have film of both in other areas.
@Raskl20 But their BMP-1 argument is mute as 2 RuAF units with BMP-1 are deployed in Ukraine: 69th Covering Bde (fortress brigade) + 35 Motor Rifle Bde which is who we likely see here in film. They have already been located in the Kreminna/Lyman area. I have film of both in other areas.
Dan (Twitter)
@HorstvonHorst1 To my knowledge all pontoons crossings were beaten back so far but did not update on end of the day yet.
@HorstvonHorst1 To my knowledge all pontoons crossings were beaten back so far but did not update on end of the day yet.
Dan (Twitter)
@NotWoofers Two possiblities: one they were trying to cross back but why didn't they use their snorkels or the try the bridge to reduce swimming distance? Another possibility they realised they couldnt cross and this was an orderly disabling of vehicles to stop them falling into UAF hands?
@NotWoofers Two possiblities: one they were trying to cross back but why didn't they use their snorkels or the try the bridge to reduce swimming distance? Another possibility they realised they couldnt cross and this was an orderly disabling of vehicles to stop them falling into UAF hands?
Rob Lee (Twitter)
2468/
-----------
@GuyPlopsky:
Stills from an April 27 TV Zvezda video about air operations against Ukraine being conducted out of what is likely Baltimor AB in Voronezh Oblast showing a KAB-1500LG-series 1,500kg-class laser-guided bomb on the inboard port wing station of a VKS #Su34 (likely from 47th BAP). https://t.co/CXikDkZ6Bf
2468/
-----------
@GuyPlopsky:
Stills from an April 27 TV Zvezda video about air operations against Ukraine being conducted out of what is likely Baltimor AB in Voronezh Oblast showing a KAB-1500LG-series 1,500kg-class laser-guided bomb on the inboard port wing station of a VKS #Su34 (likely from 47th BAP). https://t.co/CXikDkZ6Bf
Dan (Twitter)
18. Some Russian commentary on this week's failed pontoon bridge crossings over the Siverskyi Donets River at Bilohorivka and its surroundings. Note it is acknowledged by some Russian commentators. Some fervent international supporters on twitter do not🔜.
-----------
@RALee85:
Some prominent Russian defense commentators on Telegram are criticizing the “military genius” Russian officer responsible for the failed river crossing on the Severskyi Donets, specifically for bunching up so many vehicles in a small area by the river.
https://t.co/tedAT47Wqs https://t.co/bXHuw8vysu
18. Some Russian commentary on this week's failed pontoon bridge crossings over the Siverskyi Donets River at Bilohorivka and its surroundings. Note it is acknowledged by some Russian commentators. Some fervent international supporters on twitter do not🔜.
-----------
@RALee85:
Some prominent Russian defense commentators on Telegram are criticizing the “military genius” Russian officer responsible for the failed river crossing on the Severskyi Donets, specifically for bunching up so many vehicles in a small area by the river.
https://t.co/tedAT47Wqs https://t.co/bXHuw8vysu
Dan (Twitter)
19. Reaction of some Ru supporters to clear signs that something went badly wrong at Bilohorvika is interesting: "Its old, there's algae on the bridge! UAF painted circles on their tanks! RuAF doesn't have BMP-1!" Some are so invested in the lies that they only want to be lied to
19. Reaction of some Ru supporters to clear signs that something went badly wrong at Bilohorvika is interesting: "Its old, there's algae on the bridge! UAF painted circles on their tanks! RuAF doesn't have BMP-1!" Some are so invested in the lies that they only want to be lied to
Rob Lee (Twitter)
I'm very interested in looking at force ratios from this war, but Russia's invasion force was far smaller than the numbers here suggest (probably 80k troops in the 125 BTGs) and Russia's strategy didn't mass its forces at critical points. So it often did not achieve 3:1 or 2:1.
-----------
@WSJ:
Early in their invasion of Ukraine, Russians had numbers on their side: the 3:1 rule, the ratio by which attackers must outnumber defenders in order to prevail. They may have placed too much faith in “force ratios,” @JoshZumbrun explains. https://t.co/1kMeiQ2Lq2
I'm very interested in looking at force ratios from this war, but Russia's invasion force was far smaller than the numbers here suggest (probably 80k troops in the 125 BTGs) and Russia's strategy didn't mass its forces at critical points. So it often did not achieve 3:1 or 2:1.
-----------
@WSJ:
Early in their invasion of Ukraine, Russians had numbers on their side: the 3:1 rule, the ratio by which attackers must outnumber defenders in order to prevail. They may have placed too much faith in “force ratios,” @JoshZumbrun explains. https://t.co/1kMeiQ2Lq2
Twitter
The Wall Street Journal
Early in their invasion of Ukraine, Russians had numbers on their side: the 3:1 rule, the ratio by which attackers must outnumber defenders in order to prevail. They may have placed too much faith in “force ratios,” @JoshZumbrun explains. on.wsj.com/3FGYqwz
Dan (Twitter)
RT @DarthPutinKGB: Sechin sent me an updated map of Europe. https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1525160190177329152/photo/1
RT @DarthPutinKGB: Sechin sent me an updated map of Europe. https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1525160190177329152/photo/1
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Ukrainian forces smartly retreated back to more defensible terrain and cities during the opening stage of the war. Once Russian forces progressed farther into Ukraine, its forces became more dispersed and less supported, and they couldn't achieve numerical superiority. 2/
Ukrainian forces smartly retreated back to more defensible terrain and cities during the opening stage of the war. Once Russian forces progressed farther into Ukraine, its forces became more dispersed and less supported, and they couldn't achieve numerical superiority. 2/
Rob Lee (Twitter)
In some ways, we're only seeing a useful force ratio comparison in the fighting in the Donbas where Ukrainian forces are defending and Russian forces are conducting a deliberate, and better supported, offensive. But Russia doesn't appear to have a numerical advantage there. 3/
In some ways, we're only seeing a useful force ratio comparison in the fighting in the Donbas where Ukrainian forces are defending and Russian forces are conducting a deliberate, and better supported, offensive. But Russia doesn't appear to have a numerical advantage there. 3/