Dan (Twitter)
14. So on possible retreating a later image (as two new wrecks). First skeptical, but SAR imagery 2022-05-13 06:11 shows 6 of 8 turrets in water. Report says tanks retreat with barrels reversed - see tracks lead in. Not sure if same as in twt 13. Image JP.
https://www.facebook.com/100000376963441/posts/pfbid09JEZ1T7fzAPCcMroYm4S8pGQ9u69h8crByd1K3gMGzXBD71vwwCn8ePePGpKFndVl/?d=n
14. So on possible retreating a later image (as two new wrecks). First skeptical, but SAR imagery 2022-05-13 06:11 shows 6 of 8 turrets in water. Report says tanks retreat with barrels reversed - see tracks lead in. Not sure if same as in twt 13. Image JP.
https://www.facebook.com/100000376963441/posts/pfbid09JEZ1T7fzAPCcMroYm4S8pGQ9u69h8crByd1K3gMGzXBD71vwwCn8ePePGpKFndVl/?d=n
Dan (Twitter)
@HorstvonHorst1 6 T-72s counted before. 8 more here in the water, so 14 in total. IMO we will get to likely 20 in the end as we estimate elements of two BTGs crossed at this crossing point alone.
@HorstvonHorst1 6 T-72s counted before. 8 more here in the water, so 14 in total. IMO we will get to likely 20 in the end as we estimate elements of two BTGs crossed at this crossing point alone.
Dan (Twitter)
@newsfinderx @AjuWabadus We wondered about both those two points you both make ... why not use the bridge and therefore was it a potential disabling/skuttling
@newsfinderx @AjuWabadus We wondered about both those two points you both make ... why not use the bridge and therefore was it a potential disabling/skuttling
Dan (Twitter)
@ptrmarzec I thought so too but it seems legit on current balance of possibilities. I can't share the SAR imagery I saw but we will surely see more in later days.
@ptrmarzec I thought so too but it seems legit on current balance of possibilities. I can't share the SAR imagery I saw but we will surely see more in later days.
Dan (Twitter)
@the_agorist @AjuWabadus Yes at this point. The cluster fuck is on the UAF nominally controlled SE side.
@the_agorist @AjuWabadus Yes at this point. The cluster fuck is on the UAF nominally controlled SE side.
Dan (Twitter)
@Sociojoe Yes but snorkels not added so it may have been an attempt not to escape but to disable the tanks.
@Sociojoe Yes but snorkels not added so it may have been an attempt not to escape but to disable the tanks.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
RT @WarintheFuture: I was going to do a thread today on the implications of Ukraine’s offensive around Kharkiv. Instead, I have pushed that to tomorrow in order to discuss the Russian river crossing operation over the Severskyi Donets this week in #Ukraine. 1/
RT @WarintheFuture: I was going to do a thread today on the implications of Ukraine’s offensive around Kharkiv. Instead, I have pushed that to tomorrow in order to discuss the Russian river crossing operation over the Severskyi Donets this week in #Ukraine. 1/
Dan (Twitter)
So after 13 new RuAF losses in twt 13+14, a new total for Bilohorivka - 82 vehicles + 2 boats destroyed/abandoned + a bridge section:
14 T-72
35 BMP-1
2 BMP-2
17 unknown AFV (likely most BMP-1)
5 MT-LB
2 BMD/BTR-D
2 BREM-1
1 PTS-3
5 PMP trucks (2 likely recovered)
2 BMK boats
So after 13 new RuAF losses in twt 13+14, a new total for Bilohorivka - 82 vehicles + 2 boats destroyed/abandoned + a bridge section:
14 T-72
35 BMP-1
2 BMP-2
17 unknown AFV (likely most BMP-1)
5 MT-LB
2 BMD/BTR-D
2 BREM-1
1 PTS-3
5 PMP trucks (2 likely recovered)
2 BMK boats
Dan (Twitter)
16. The number of lost IFVs/AFVs suggest elements of 2 BTGs crossed. Inform Napalm states one is from 74 Guards Motor Rifle Bde. By looking at BMPs in film in twt 12 IMO 74th got towards Bilhorivka, while 35 MR Bde with BMP-1s were smashed at the crossing.
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@Haruspexut:
@InformNapalm claim insider sources revealed Russia's 74th MRB sent 550 men over the river at Bilohorivka, with only 65 surviving. Special political and psychological officers are now trying to pressure them to keep fighting. https://t.co/oTQEZeTA17
16. The number of lost IFVs/AFVs suggest elements of 2 BTGs crossed. Inform Napalm states one is from 74 Guards Motor Rifle Bde. By looking at BMPs in film in twt 12 IMO 74th got towards Bilhorivka, while 35 MR Bde with BMP-1s were smashed at the crossing.
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@Haruspexut:
@InformNapalm claim insider sources revealed Russia's 74th MRB sent 550 men over the river at Bilohorivka, with only 65 surviving. Special political and psychological officers are now trying to pressure them to keep fighting. https://t.co/oTQEZeTA17
Dan (Twitter)
17. My guess: 74th Grds Motor Rifle Bde in the vanguard reached Bilohorivka (twt 12), but 35 Motor Rifle Bde (twt 7-11) got destroyed in forest while waiting to exploit a breakthrough that didn't come. For sure 'disastrous' losses + maybe command losses.👇
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@mdmitri91:
Igor Girkin talks about Severskyi Donetsk defeat and mentions 'senior staff losses' which he won't be going into any detail about. https://t.co/PcQOJfcG8B
17. My guess: 74th Grds Motor Rifle Bde in the vanguard reached Bilohorivka (twt 12), but 35 Motor Rifle Bde (twt 7-11) got destroyed in forest while waiting to exploit a breakthrough that didn't come. For sure 'disastrous' losses + maybe command losses.👇
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@mdmitri91:
Igor Girkin talks about Severskyi Donetsk defeat and mentions 'senior staff losses' which he won't be going into any detail about. https://t.co/PcQOJfcG8B
Dan (Twitter)
@bishwa55900127 Yes 2 RuAF units with BMP-1 have been deployed in Ukraine. The 69th Covering Brigade (fortress brigade) + the 35 Motor Rifle Brigade which is who we likely see here in film. They have already been located in the Kreminna - Lyman area. I have film of them both in other areas.
@bishwa55900127 Yes 2 RuAF units with BMP-1 have been deployed in Ukraine. The 69th Covering Brigade (fortress brigade) + the 35 Motor Rifle Brigade which is who we likely see here in film. They have already been located in the Kreminna - Lyman area. I have film of them both in other areas.
Dan (Twitter)
@0korkle0 @BilboBa67366673 Yes 2 RuAF units with BMP-1 have been deployed in Ukraine. The 69th Covering Brigade (fortress brigade) + the 35 Motor Rifle Brigade which is who we likely see here in film. They have already been located in the Kreminna - Lyman area. I have film of them both in other areas.
@0korkle0 @BilboBa67366673 Yes 2 RuAF units with BMP-1 have been deployed in Ukraine. The 69th Covering Brigade (fortress brigade) + the 35 Motor Rifle Brigade which is who we likely see here in film. They have already been located in the Kreminna - Lyman area. I have film of them both in other areas.
Dan (Twitter)
@Raskl20 But their BMP-1 argument is mute as 2 RuAF units with BMP-1 are deployed in Ukraine: 69th Covering Bde (fortress brigade) + 35 Motor Rifle Bde which is who we likely see here in film. They have already been located in the Kreminna/Lyman area. I have film of both in other areas.
@Raskl20 But their BMP-1 argument is mute as 2 RuAF units with BMP-1 are deployed in Ukraine: 69th Covering Bde (fortress brigade) + 35 Motor Rifle Bde which is who we likely see here in film. They have already been located in the Kreminna/Lyman area. I have film of both in other areas.
Dan (Twitter)
@HorstvonHorst1 To my knowledge all pontoons crossings were beaten back so far but did not update on end of the day yet.
@HorstvonHorst1 To my knowledge all pontoons crossings were beaten back so far but did not update on end of the day yet.
Dan (Twitter)
@NotWoofers Two possiblities: one they were trying to cross back but why didn't they use their snorkels or the try the bridge to reduce swimming distance? Another possibility they realised they couldnt cross and this was an orderly disabling of vehicles to stop them falling into UAF hands?
@NotWoofers Two possiblities: one they were trying to cross back but why didn't they use their snorkels or the try the bridge to reduce swimming distance? Another possibility they realised they couldnt cross and this was an orderly disabling of vehicles to stop them falling into UAF hands?
Rob Lee (Twitter)
2468/
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@GuyPlopsky:
Stills from an April 27 TV Zvezda video about air operations against Ukraine being conducted out of what is likely Baltimor AB in Voronezh Oblast showing a KAB-1500LG-series 1,500kg-class laser-guided bomb on the inboard port wing station of a VKS #Su34 (likely from 47th BAP). https://t.co/CXikDkZ6Bf
2468/
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@GuyPlopsky:
Stills from an April 27 TV Zvezda video about air operations against Ukraine being conducted out of what is likely Baltimor AB in Voronezh Oblast showing a KAB-1500LG-series 1,500kg-class laser-guided bomb on the inboard port wing station of a VKS #Su34 (likely from 47th BAP). https://t.co/CXikDkZ6Bf