The Lookout (Twitter)
@rlaugenjs: Due to the sins of the past, and the lack of real political will and risk appetite in Europe to actually change the trajectory of the war, I really struggle to see an outcome that could be seen as just from a Ukrainian perspective.
This doesn't mean I like it. I certainly don't.
The war could very well end on terms a lot worse than the current US proposal, if the current trajectory continues and yes, the future looks bleak and dangerous.
@rlaugenjs: Due to the sins of the past, and the lack of real political will and risk appetite in Europe to actually change the trajectory of the war, I really struggle to see an outcome that could be seen as just from a Ukrainian perspective.
This doesn't mean I like it. I certainly don't.
The war could very well end on terms a lot worse than the current US proposal, if the current trajectory continues and yes, the future looks bleak and dangerous.
The Lookout (Twitter)
@Varsevan: When the war winds down, I think a clock starts counting down, but to what and what the countdown is are unknowns. The risk of something bigger will increase but nothing is inevitable.
Easing sanctions will be a bad move, increasing the risks, but here Europe does have a real vote I'd say.
@Varsevan: When the war winds down, I think a clock starts counting down, but to what and what the countdown is are unknowns. The risk of something bigger will increase but nothing is inevitable.
Easing sanctions will be a bad move, increasing the risks, but here Europe does have a real vote I'd say.
The Lookout (Twitter)
@rlaugenjs: Without any major changes in the European approach, after 4 years there is still no real strategy with a clear end state behind our support, how does one change the trajectory of the war?
On security guarantees, I don't see any country willing to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. NATO membership wasn't on the table with Biden either.
I have been very sceptical about the coalition of the willing turning into anything real from the beginning.
Removing sanctions would be a big mistake but on this, I think Europe actually has a real vote.
@rlaugenjs: Without any major changes in the European approach, after 4 years there is still no real strategy with a clear end state behind our support, how does one change the trajectory of the war?
On security guarantees, I don't see any country willing to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. NATO membership wasn't on the table with Biden either.
I have been very sceptical about the coalition of the willing turning into anything real from the beginning.
Removing sanctions would be a big mistake but on this, I think Europe actually has a real vote.
Status-6 (Twitter)
🇷🇺 Russian President Putin:
🗣️ Russia is ready for peace negotiations, but it is also satisfied with the current tempo of its offensive operations against Ukraine, which leads to achieving its goals by military means;
🗣️ Trump's peace plan was discussed even before the Alaska meeting in August 2025. The plan was modified after the summit;
🗣️ The United States asked the Russian side to show flexibility regarding the war settlement;
🗣️The US has so far failed to secure Ukraine's consent to a peace plan.
t.me/tass_agency/349512
🇷🇺 Russian President Putin:
🗣️ Russia is ready for peace negotiations, but it is also satisfied with the current tempo of its offensive operations against Ukraine, which leads to achieving its goals by military means;
🗣️ Trump's peace plan was discussed even before the Alaska meeting in August 2025. The plan was modified after the summit;
🗣️ The United States asked the Russian side to show flexibility regarding the war settlement;
🗣️The US has so far failed to secure Ukraine's consent to a peace plan.
t.me/tass_agency/349512
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The Lookout (Twitter)
@rlaugenjs: Again, this point is something that likely always will be there in some form unless, by some miracle, the trajectory of the war turns around. The proposed limit could have been a lot worse.
Even with no limits via an agreement, there are very real financial restrictions on how large standing armed forces a post war Ukraine can afford, in any scenario.
@rlaugenjs: Again, this point is something that likely always will be there in some form unless, by some miracle, the trajectory of the war turns around. The proposed limit could have been a lot worse.
Even with no limits via an agreement, there are very real financial restrictions on how large standing armed forces a post war Ukraine can afford, in any scenario.
The Lookout (Twitter)
@FriedrichArndt @APHClarkson: If this plan actually leads to a halt of the war, I would treat it as a pause, not the end of it. It will also increase the risk of something bigger at some point down the line.
But, where will things go if the US cuts Ukraine off? What happens with alliance cohesion if Europe draws Trump's wrath by saying this is stupid, without any real alternative plan?
Real security guarantees for Ukraine have always been unlikely. I don't see any country willing to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. Liberation of substantial amounts of occupied territory has been unlikely for a long time.
I don't like any of this personally, the future does look bleak, but this is where I think we are.
@FriedrichArndt @APHClarkson: If this plan actually leads to a halt of the war, I would treat it as a pause, not the end of it. It will also increase the risk of something bigger at some point down the line.
But, where will things go if the US cuts Ukraine off? What happens with alliance cohesion if Europe draws Trump's wrath by saying this is stupid, without any real alternative plan?
Real security guarantees for Ukraine have always been unlikely. I don't see any country willing to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. Liberation of substantial amounts of occupied territory has been unlikely for a long time.
I don't like any of this personally, the future does look bleak, but this is where I think we are.
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Status-6 (Twitter)
RT @moklasen: after ru mod belusov announced mala tokmachkas capture this week,
the ru 42nd division continues loosing armored columns trying to reach it https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1991892452815536187#m
RT @moklasen: after ru mod belusov announced mala tokmachkas capture this week,
the ru 42nd division continues loosing armored columns trying to reach it https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1991892452815536187#m
The Lookout (Twitter)
@rlaugenjs: Personally, I don't like any of this, and would have hoped we were at an entirely different place in the war now, but we are not.
However, I do think that the best way forward is to play along with Trump and then hope the Russians screws this up somehow.
The war continuing does come at a cost, whether Ukraine says no or this peace deal falls apart, for whatever reason, and the key question still remains:
How does one change the trajectory and achieve a better outcome further down the line? Is a better outcome even realistic, given the West's track record, Ukrainian challenges and Russian action?
@rlaugenjs: Personally, I don't like any of this, and would have hoped we were at an entirely different place in the war now, but we are not.
However, I do think that the best way forward is to play along with Trump and then hope the Russians screws this up somehow.
The war continuing does come at a cost, whether Ukraine says no or this peace deal falls apart, for whatever reason, and the key question still remains:
How does one change the trajectory and achieve a better outcome further down the line? Is a better outcome even realistic, given the West's track record, Ukrainian challenges and Russian action?
Status-6 (Twitter)
RT @idreesali114: BRUSSELS, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Ukraine, France, Germany and Britain are working on a counter-proposal to a United States-backed 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, three sources told Reuters on Friday.
RT @idreesali114: BRUSSELS, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Ukraine, France, Germany and Britain are working on a counter-proposal to a United States-backed 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, three sources told Reuters on Friday.
The Lookout (Twitter)
@rlaugenjs: If this proposal stops the war, it should be treated as a pause, not the end of it.
However I do think that a viable future for Ukraine, including preparing for a resumption, could be forged from this, despite all its faults.
You don't seem to have an answer on how to achieve a better end of this round. That's the key issue IMO, and one that can't be ignored.
I will fully understand if Ukraine says no and continues fighting, the warrior side of me says that is the right thing if we was in their place, but the analyst side says something different.
@rlaugenjs: If this proposal stops the war, it should be treated as a pause, not the end of it.
However I do think that a viable future for Ukraine, including preparing for a resumption, could be forged from this, despite all its faults.
You don't seem to have an answer on how to achieve a better end of this round. That's the key issue IMO, and one that can't be ignored.
I will fully understand if Ukraine says no and continues fighting, the warrior side of me says that is the right thing if we was in their place, but the analyst side says something different.
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The Lookout (Twitter)
@APHClarkson @FriedrichArndt: I think the first, securing Ukraine's existence and offer a path to a viable future, incl preparing for a resumption of the war, could be forged for the current proposal, despite all its faults.
@APHClarkson @FriedrichArndt: I think the first, securing Ukraine's existence and offer a path to a viable future, incl preparing for a resumption of the war, could be forged for the current proposal, despite all its faults.
Status-6 (Twitter)
RT @UAControlMap: Daily Ukraine map thread for Friday 21st November 2025
Part of a coordinated Russian campaign was shown today due to the US/Russian talks showcasing multiple instances of Russian flag raisings. However, many of these recordings are not from today, they were simply synchronized for release to maximise impact. Several of the Kupyansk clips, for example, were filmed seemingly in October based on the weather and we've seen Ukraine operating there since.
It is also important to note that this media push is designed to create an exaggerated sense of Ukrainian collapse, even though many areas captured so far consist largely of small, tactically limited areas. It works for the casual observer, that's why they do it - they did the same thing at the last talks with the Pokrovsk area earlier in the year... How many tens of thousands of Ukrainians did they claim were encircled back then that never materialised?
None of this means the advances...
Перейти на оригинальный пост
RT @UAControlMap: Daily Ukraine map thread for Friday 21st November 2025
Part of a coordinated Russian campaign was shown today due to the US/Russian talks showcasing multiple instances of Russian flag raisings. However, many of these recordings are not from today, they were simply synchronized for release to maximise impact. Several of the Kupyansk clips, for example, were filmed seemingly in October based on the weather and we've seen Ukraine operating there since.
It is also important to note that this media push is designed to create an exaggerated sense of Ukrainian collapse, even though many areas captured so far consist largely of small, tactically limited areas. It works for the casual observer, that's why they do it - they did the same thing at the last talks with the Pokrovsk area earlier in the year... How many tens of thousands of Ukrainians did they claim were encircled back then that never materialised?
None of this means the advances...
Перейти на оригинальный пост
Status-6 (Twitter)
RT @kromark: @GRC_HumanRights: 1/2 According to our wounded database, after the Russian retreat from Bucha, in late May 2022, Yurii Kim sustained shrapnel wounds to the chest (not clear where exactly) and spent nearly a month in hospitals in Rostov and then Moscow Oblast. https://twitter.com/GRC_HumanRights/status/1991414022969913382#m
RT @kromark: @GRC_HumanRights: 1/2 According to our wounded database, after the Russian retreat from Bucha, in late May 2022, Yurii Kim sustained shrapnel wounds to the chest (not clear where exactly) and spent nearly a month in hospitals in Rostov and then Moscow Oblast. https://twitter.com/GRC_HumanRights/status/1991414022969913382#m
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The Lookout (Twitter)
@The_Lookout_N @APHClarkson @FriedrichArndt: The Russians, with their original war aims intact, might blow this and thus the war continues.
@The_Lookout_N @APHClarkson @FriedrichArndt: The Russians, with their original war aims intact, might blow this and thus the war continues.
The Lookout (Twitter)
@APHClarkson @FriedrichArndt: Getting the nuances out on this thing is difficult, my mood might be dark too, but playing along with Trump and hoping the Russians blow it seems like the only way ahead.
We are still faced with the key question on how does one achieve a better outcome and end to the current round, both for Ukraine and us others close to Russia?
Here I am also not very hopeful, based on the West's past track record.
@APHClarkson @FriedrichArndt: Getting the nuances out on this thing is difficult, my mood might be dark too, but playing along with Trump and hoping the Russians blow it seems like the only way ahead.
We are still faced with the key question on how does one achieve a better outcome and end to the current round, both for Ukraine and us others close to Russia?
Here I am also not very hopeful, based on the West's past track record.
The Lookout (Twitter)
@rlaugenjs: We will have to live with the consequences of our sins of the past, both in regards to Ukraine, our own capabilities and the risk of something bigger later on.
The latter will start to increase when the current war ends, if it ends largely on Russian terms, and that is where I think we have been heading for a long time.
@rlaugenjs: We will have to live with the consequences of our sins of the past, both in regards to Ukraine, our own capabilities and the risk of something bigger later on.
The latter will start to increase when the current war ends, if it ends largely on Russian terms, and that is where I think we have been heading for a long time.
Status-6 (Twitter)
"Witkoff needs to see a psychiatrist," a senior EU politician told Politico.
https://www.politico.eu/article/steve-witkoff-needs-a-psychiatrist-europeans-fume-at-donald-trump-plan-to-profit-from-frozen-russian-assets/
"Witkoff needs to see a psychiatrist," a senior EU politician told Politico.
https://www.politico.eu/article/steve-witkoff-needs-a-psychiatrist-europeans-fume-at-donald-trump-plan-to-profit-from-frozen-russian-assets/
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