The Lookout (Twitter)
RT @Stanovaya: Reuters, citing its sources, reports that Putin believes key war objectives have already been achieved, including securing land connecting mainland Russia to Crimea and weakening Ukraine’s military. It also notes his awareness of the economic strain caused by the war. The article indirectly suggests that these factors might make Putin more inclined to strike a deal with Trump to end the war, given its cost and the claimed achievement of strategic goals.
I strongly disagree with this interpretation. This perspective oversimplifies and misrepresents Putin’s position. While it is true that Putin has gained territory and "secured" (in his vision) the land bridge to Crimea, as well as inflicted significant damage on Ukraine’s military—something Russian officials have openly stated for months—these "achievements" do not mean he is prepared to stop.
If Putin were to halt the war now, Ukraine would likely accelerate efforts to join NATO and rebuild its military-industrial complex. Even if NATO membership remains a distant prospect, the alliance would solidify its presence in Ukraine, precisely what Putin sought to prevent by launching the war. His goal was to end what he calls the “anti-Russia project” on Ukrainian territory. In his view, stopping now would lead to an even more radicalized “anti-Russia” project in the remainder of Ukraine. This is central to his reasoning.
The article also emphasizes Putin’s concerns about the economy, but this issue is more nuanced. First, there are genuine, objective concerns about economic performance. Putin is aware of these issues and, while it may not be his primary focus, he understands that economic stability is critical to sustaining his policies. However, the situation is far from catastrophic, and economic concerns alone are unlikely to exert enough pressure to force a shift in his geopolitical strategy.
We should avoid overestimating the impact of these economic concerns on Putin’s plans for Ukraine. In my view, no matter the economic situation, Putin will persist in seeking to end the war on Russian terms. For him, this is an existential conflict. He is deeply committed to the idea that without a “friendly Ukraine,” Russia’s long-term survival is at risk. Many in Moscow may be alarmed by this view, but Putin is resolute, believing he must achieve his goals at any cost.
Thus, the assumption that economic troubles will compel Putin to compromise is fundamentally flawed. Economic pressure alone will not dictate his approach to Ukraine. If Putin were no longer in power, the dynamics might change significantly, as much of Russia’s leadership does not share his level of obsession with Ukraine. But that is a separate discussion entirely.
RT @Stanovaya: Reuters, citing its sources, reports that Putin believes key war objectives have already been achieved, including securing land connecting mainland Russia to Crimea and weakening Ukraine’s military. It also notes his awareness of the economic strain caused by the war. The article indirectly suggests that these factors might make Putin more inclined to strike a deal with Trump to end the war, given its cost and the claimed achievement of strategic goals.
I strongly disagree with this interpretation. This perspective oversimplifies and misrepresents Putin’s position. While it is true that Putin has gained territory and "secured" (in his vision) the land bridge to Crimea, as well as inflicted significant damage on Ukraine’s military—something Russian officials have openly stated for months—these "achievements" do not mean he is prepared to stop.
If Putin were to halt the war now, Ukraine would likely accelerate efforts to join NATO and rebuild its military-industrial complex. Even if NATO membership remains a distant prospect, the alliance would solidify its presence in Ukraine, precisely what Putin sought to prevent by launching the war. His goal was to end what he calls the “anti-Russia project” on Ukrainian territory. In his view, stopping now would lead to an even more radicalized “anti-Russia” project in the remainder of Ukraine. This is central to his reasoning.
The article also emphasizes Putin’s concerns about the economy, but this issue is more nuanced. First, there are genuine, objective concerns about economic performance. Putin is aware of these issues and, while it may not be his primary focus, he understands that economic stability is critical to sustaining his policies. However, the situation is far from catastrophic, and economic concerns alone are unlikely to exert enough pressure to force a shift in his geopolitical strategy.
We should avoid overestimating the impact of these economic concerns on Putin’s plans for Ukraine. In my view, no matter the economic situation, Putin will persist in seeking to end the war on Russian terms. For him, this is an existential conflict. He is deeply committed to the idea that without a “friendly Ukraine,” Russia’s long-term survival is at risk. Many in Moscow may be alarmed by this view, but Putin is resolute, believing he must achieve his goals at any cost.
Thus, the assumption that economic troubles will compel Putin to compromise is fundamentally flawed. Economic pressure alone will not dictate his approach to Ukraine. If Putin were no longer in power, the dynamics might change significantly, as much of Russia’s leadership does not share his level of obsession with Ukraine. But that is a separate discussion entirely.
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The Lookout (Twitter)
"We should avoid overestimating the impact of these economic concerns on Putin’s plans for Ukraine. In my view, no matter the economic situation, Putin will persist in seeking to end the war on Russian terms. For him, this is an existential conflict."
"We should avoid overestimating the impact of these economic concerns on Putin’s plans for Ukraine. In my view, no matter the economic situation, Putin will persist in seeking to end the war on Russian terms. For him, this is an existential conflict."
vxTwitter / fixvx
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Tatiana Stanovaya (@Stanovaya)
Reuters, citing its sources, reports that Putin believes key war objectives have already been achieved, including securing land connecting mainland Russia to Crimea and weakening Ukraine’s military. It also notes his awareness of the economic strain caused…
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
RT @bctallis: Robert Wilkie - Head of Trump's Pentagon Transition Team - delivers clear messages on likely Trump admin positions to:
1. Putin - Stop the war in Ukraine or we'll give Zelensky everything he needs & will unleash US energy & economic power to bankrupt Russia.
2. Allies - Need to spend 3% on defence, at least. Specifically notes UK & France need to do this - & saves special mention for Germany needing to step up.
3. Ukraine - Need to mobilise 18-25 year olds.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00274zq
[From BBC Radio 4 Today programme interview 21/01 from 1h34mins]
RT @bctallis: Robert Wilkie - Head of Trump's Pentagon Transition Team - delivers clear messages on likely Trump admin positions to:
1. Putin - Stop the war in Ukraine or we'll give Zelensky everything he needs & will unleash US energy & economic power to bankrupt Russia.
2. Allies - Need to spend 3% on defence, at least. Specifically notes UK & France need to do this - & saves special mention for Germany needing to step up.
3. Ukraine - Need to mobilise 18-25 year olds.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00274zq
[From BBC Radio 4 Today programme interview 21/01 from 1h34mins]
Necro Mancer (Twitter)
Какой оригинальный ВУС был у бывшего владельца этого военника. А помер (если не врут), небось, обычным штурмовиком
t.me/Airborne1126/22437 #всрф
Какой оригинальный ВУС был у бывшего владельца этого военника. А помер (если не врут), небось, обычным штурмовиком
t.me/Airborne1126/22437 #всрф
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Necro Mancer (Twitter)
Сумская обл.: утилизация российской НВХ
t.me/mvs_ukraine/46129 #RussianUkrainianWar
Сумская обл.: утилизация российской НВХ
t.me/mvs_ukraine/46129 #RussianUkrainianWar
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IgorGirkin (Twitter)
RT @24th_brigade: 🔥Часів Яр. Мінус чотири БМД — розвалили механізований штурм російської десантури!
Воїни 24 ОМБр ізупинили чергову спробу прориву окупантів.
Десантники РФ намагались влаштувати масований штурм на шести БМД-4.
Завдяки злагодженим діям вдалося знищити чотири машини.
До кінця!
RT @24th_brigade: 🔥Часів Яр. Мінус чотири БМД — розвалили механізований штурм російської десантури!
Воїни 24 ОМБр ізупинили чергову спробу прориву окупантів.
Десантники РФ намагались влаштувати масований штурм на шести БМД-4.
Завдяки злагодженим діям вдалося знищити чотири машини.
До кінця!
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Necro Mancer (Twitter)
Ходют тут всякие, топчут, понимаешь
t.me/ab3army/5131 t.me/Khyzhak_brigade/424 t.me/totem_72/201 t.me/fifthbrUA/728 #RussianUkrainianWar
Ходют тут всякие, топчут, понимаешь
t.me/ab3army/5131 t.me/Khyzhak_brigade/424 t.me/totem_72/201 t.me/fifthbrUA/728 #RussianUkrainianWar
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Necro Mancer (Twitter)
Могилка лейтенанта "Кобры", некродоска и некростенд. Ну и просто портрет, на закуску
t.me/dontstopwar/18600 https://ok.ru/profile/576052863831/statuses/157083411699799 vk.com/wall-205892714_5248 #всрф #потерьнет #груз200 #Магомедов #мемориал
Могилка лейтенанта "Кобры", некродоска и некростенд. Ну и просто портрет, на закуску
t.me/dontstopwar/18600 https://ok.ru/profile/576052863831/statuses/157083411699799 vk.com/wall-205892714_5248 #всрф #потерьнет #груз200 #Магомедов #мемориал
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Rob Lee (Twitter)
RT @John_ForemanCBE: My thoughts on the background behind the Yantar incident, what the Russians are up to, and why we need to invest more in the SDR to protect our critical underwater infrastructure.
What the Russian spy ship exposed
RT @John_ForemanCBE: My thoughts on the background behind the Yantar incident, what the Russians are up to, and why we need to invest more in the SDR to protect our critical underwater infrastructure.
What the Russian spy ship exposed
The Spectator
What the Russian spy ship exposed
Britain is heavily dependent on its underwater infrastructure. Ninety-nine per cent of our digital communications overseas are carried through subsea fibre optic cables. Significant damage to them at the hands of malign actors would jeopardise our way of…
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Syrskyi: "I paid special attention to the 155th Brigade. It is worth noting that the brigade is gradually acquiring certain combat capabilities. All the negative aspects and difficulties that arose during its deployment in Ukraine have been analysed and conclusions drawn, which will be taken into account in the further training of the servicemen."
https://www.facebook.com/CinCAFofUkraine/posts/pfbid02dMULd5DBE5mwkqtjtWgd3ELWvvbag4Y2kzyR6GomEenTK9bYMp8hQixMkYVVqy47l
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/01/23/7494940/
Syrskyi: "I paid special attention to the 155th Brigade. It is worth noting that the brigade is gradually acquiring certain combat capabilities. All the negative aspects and difficulties that arose during its deployment in Ukraine have been analysed and conclusions drawn, which will be taken into account in the further training of the servicemen."
https://www.facebook.com/CinCAFofUkraine/posts/pfbid02dMULd5DBE5mwkqtjtWgd3ELWvvbag4Y2kzyR6GomEenTK9bYMp8hQixMkYVVqy47l
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/01/23/7494940/
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