Def Mon (Twitter)

RT @Tatarigami_UA: Overnight, Ukraine carried out a series of missile strikes on Khalino Airbase in Kursk Oblast, reportedly using ATACMS missiles. Here’s what we can anticipate based on previous data gathered by Frontelligence Insight:

🧵Thread

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@MarioNawfal: Getting back what was taken from Ukraine and an agreement that was not followed is not escalation. Russia wants Ukraine to be defenseless so they consider every piece of military equipment given to Ukraine as escalation.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@ukraine_map @MarioNawfal: Did you say that Russia stationing nukes in Belarus was escalation?

Did you say North Korea being provided significant help by Russia to build its nuclear weapons to threaten US was escalation and that Russia wanted WW3?

But when it’s Ukraine, it’s always the biggest escalation

Rob Lee (Twitter)

RT @Archer83Able: ⚡️🇬🇧🇺🇦 | The UK recently supplied Ukraine with "dozens more" Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.

The deliveries were not publicly announced and took place several weeks ago, after Kyiv "ran low" on the missiles.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-25/uk-sends-kyiv-more-storm-shadows-as-starmer-pledges-support?srnd=homepage-europe

Status-6 (Twitter)

⚡️🇬🇧🇺🇦 | The UK recently supplied Ukraine with "dozens more" Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.

The deliveries were not publicly announced and took place several weeks ago, after Kyiv "ran low" on the missiles.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-25/uk-sends-kyiv-more-storm-shadows-as-starmer-pledges-support?srnd=homepage-europe

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

❗️🇬🇧🇺🇦 Bloomberg: UK Sends Kyiv More Storm Shadows as Starmer Pledges Support

"The UK government recently supplied Ukraine with dozens more Storm Shadow cruise missiles, [...] The deliveries, which were not publicly announced, took place several weeks ago and were ordered after Kyiv ran low on the long-range missiles, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing security issues."

That's 1 dozen from France, and "dozens" more from the UK. This is likely the bottom of the barrel of what both countries will be able to provide out of their own inventories.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@FifiFuf54200955 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA: It’s not just about Avdiivka, it’s the whole thing. They’ve lost a significant portion of Donetsk Oblasg since the replacement.

These exact tactics Syrskyi has been using has lead to exactly this years ago. There is no success, just massive retreats, no counterattacks for months now. Zaluzhnyi was in the process of retreating from Avdiivka, it was reported by Ukrainian news that Zelensky was not happy that they were retreating from Avdiivka and replaced him, there are also other reasons, but that was one of the main reasons.

Then when Zaluzhnyi was replaced, instead of trying to retreat troops from Avdiivka and stabilize defenses. Syrksyi sent multiple counter attacks into Avdiivka, while 90% surrounded, when they only had 1-2 roads to leave. Then the Russians obviously pressed the flanks, and literally the last couple hours before he could, Syrksyi ordered a withdrawal of Ukrainian troops. Meaning the ones sent in for counter attacks that week had one road to leave on that was being bombarded by Russia constantly, resulting in hundreds of Ukrainians being killed on that road, and hundreds stuck in Avdiivka to be captured and/or executed by Russia. Since then, there has been absolutely no defenses solidified to stop Russian advances in Donetsk for the past 6 months, and Russia is taking part of Ukraine, specifically Donetsk oblast are record speed compared to any times after the first 3 months of war.

This was done much more successfully by Zaluzhnyi and his Generals before he was removed, and replaced with a worse General, who has a worse reputation, repeatedly made the same mistakes, and has worse moral amongst Ukrainian troops. There likely is no way Ukraine will be winning the war with this type of strategy and these Generals constantly using failing tactics for years at this point. At what point to you say, this is enough failure for the past 6 months, the front has not been stabilized, there is no successful strategy, no change in strategy, and replace the top General, with someone else. Because if Zaluzhnyi had been as bad as Syrksyi currently is, he would have been replaced in Mid-2022. The sad thing is, this was all foreseeable and predictable, and it happened, and is happening now.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@somalian_Astro @WarMonitor3: Russia would need to create those warheads specifically for the missile, that they don’t currently have. Then the missile is 10-20 times more expensive and harder to make than any of Russia’s other missiles. And it has a CEP of 250 meters or more. It is the most inaccurate missile Russia has. A Kh-22 from 1970 would do better. And that’s the only type of target you can really use it one, a massive factory, the vast majority of targets it would be missing and striking people’s houses. It’s not practical.

There is no point of using such a missile for anything other than nuclear warheads and intimidation/threats like the past attacks was for.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@somalian_Astro @WarMonitor3: Russia would need to create those warheads specifically for the missile, which they don’t currently have. Then the missile is 10-20 times more expensive and harder to make than any of Russia’s other missiles. And it has a CEP of 250 meters or more. It is the most inaccurate missile Russia has. A Kh-22 from 1970 would do better. And that’s the only type of target you can really use it on, a massive factory, the vast majority of targets it would be missing and striking people’s houses. It’s not practical.

There is no point of using such a missile for anything other than nuclear warheads, or intimidation/threats like the past attack was for.

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

To elaborate:

@the_engi_nerd has a huge amount of experience working on the JSF program, and thus has insights that few if any others do.

@Doha104p3 operates solely in the unclassified domain, but has an encyclopedic knowledge of the considerable amount of open source information that is available.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@amanteros @cym27s: The CEP of Oreshnik is 150 meter to 250 meters. On satellite images from yesterday there is no visible damage done to the factory they attacked because there were dummy warhead in the missile.

Russia has made nuclear threats throughout the war, as well as threat of bombing NATO bases in Europe, they have followed up on none of them and have no benefit in doing so. Russia wouldn’t use Oreshnik if it were to launch a nuclear weapon on Ukraine. The only reason that Oreshnik was used was because it is a missile that Russia has that was experimental and no equipped with a nuclear warhead. Something like an Iskander, X-101, Kinzhal, or other ICBM would be used if Russia were to use a nuke. But it’s not going it, it’s the same threat that Russia made when Ukraine was given military aid at the start of the war, then when Ukraine atttacked Kherson, then when Ukraine was given F-16s, then when Ukraine has given Storm Shadows, then when Ukraine struck long range radars, then when Ukraine was allowed to strike Crimea, and now when Ukraine is striking Russia on a near daily basis. The point is that the threats are completely empty. They have no benefit really or even justification to do it as they are attacking another country, they’ve occupied 20% of it, attacked it’s capital, and for 3 years have bombed the entire country with +14,000 missiles, and bombed them with missiles from North Korean and Drones from Iran. The country which is 28x times smaller, has a weaker military force, and no nuclear weapons has a right to defend itself, and can launch missiles at military targets in Russia, military targets that are attacking it on a daily basis.

To launch +14,000 missiles at another country, as well as destroy most of it’s infrastructure almost entirely affecting civilians, and then complain when 3 years large that country launched 20 missiles back is ridiculous and no major country in the world would support Russia using nuclear weapons against Ukraine. And Russia themselves know it would be a disastrous idea for their own country.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

Which is the better missile being used in the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦 and Russia?

IgorGirkin (Twitter)

RT @JohnH105: Bloomberg: "The UK government recently supplied Ukraine with dozens more Storm Shadow cruise missiles, according to people familiar with the matter... The deliveries, which were not publicly announced, took place several weeks ago and were ordered after Kyiv ran low on the long-range missiles, said the people"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-25/uk-sends-kyiv-more-storm-shadows-as-starmer-pledges-support

Status-6 (Twitter)

RT @MT_Anderson: 🚨Update🚨
🇷🇺Mar’ino🇷🇺
30cm 📷 of the aftermath of the strike at Mar'ino (24 Nov)

Unfortunately, due to provider constraints, I can't share the image

I've provided my take & thanks to @vcdgf555, @BrianE6B & @Dmojavensis for the help The 📷 is from GE with damage overlaid

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

RT @Doha104p3: @DrewPavlou: This is BULLSHIT. Israel didn't strip out all the avionics in the F-35. They didn't. The part of agreement is to put the Israeli things on top of what's already there. Something the Izzies has done with other aircraft aswell https://twitter.com/TruttMD/status/1860941497169838567#m

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@pravda_eng: Like it wasn’t already obvious. They’ve been launching ATACMS into Russia for a week.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@Yoda4ever: This is so sad 🇺🇦💔

If it wasn’t for Russia, these dogs and cats would be in a much safer place. We only look at the toll war has on humans, but don’t fully notice how bad it is for dogs and cats who have no where to go, and have to live in the middle of a war zone with no food.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@RpsAgainstTrump: That’s how you raise prices.

Put tariffs, then Chinese companies will raise the cost of the products they ship to US, meaning the companies buying them will have to pay more, and how do those companies get money? From the consumers, from regular people who will be most impacted.