Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

@ThomasBuchhol20: They can set a new FY25 PDA cap at any time.

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

As an aside, this article manages to correctly identify PDA as an authority once but then refers to it as funding twice.

1 step forwards, 2 steps back.

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@MrHansen18 @Mnviking77 @Tendar @cnni @guardian @BBC: Russia invaded Ukraine that what happens when Russia is allowed to continue to escalate. Japan and Ukraine are two total different military powers. US allowed Russia to invade Ukraine. Japan is much stronger, has US military bases, and has one of the strongest navy’s in the world

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@ukraine_map @MrHansen18 @Mnviking77 @Tendar @cnni @guardian @BBC: Russia continues their aggression if there is no response to what they are doing. Russia did the exact same thing with Turkey, violated their air space several times in 2 months in 2015 then Turkey shot down their plane. It’s been 9 years and Russia has not violated it ever again

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@MrHansen18 @Mnviking77 @Tendar @cnni @guardian @BBC @CNN: If you don’t want your plane to be shot down then don’t violate another countries air space, it’s as simple as that.

That’s complete nonsense, Russia invaded Georgia as well. Russia has zero say in what Ukraine does, drawing red lines in other country’s borders is ridiculous 🤡

Def Mon (Twitter)

RT @Tatarigami_UA: President Zelensky is seeking security guarantees as part of Ukraine's ongoing effort to join NATO. While few expect this request to result in a positive answer, the reality is that Ukraine urgently needs security assurances to end the war and ensure its survival. This isn’t mere rhetoric to grab your attention - it’s an invitation to an honest discussion about why Zelensky is pushing for a new security framework - and why it must be taken seriously.

Some of these points may echo earlier discussions, but they need to be repeated to understand the full picture. No matter how optimistic some portray the situation, or talk about great Ukraine after the victory, it doesn't resolve the problem. Admitting the problem and discussing it is the first step to a solution.

Let’s take a hard look at the potential consequences if Ukraine freezes the conflict without securing firm guarantees.

First, consider the economic and demographic problems of post-war Ukraine. The country has lost ~18% of its territory, including important agricultural and industrial regions in the south and east. Even in areas under Ukrainian control near the frontline, land remains unsafe due to extensive minefields. Sea ports like Mariupol and Berdyansk are occupied, and large industrial facilities, akin to Azovstal are destroyed.

Demographically, the situation is even worse. Before the war, Ukraine already faced one of the worst population trends in Europe. The Ptoukha Institute for Demography estimates that only around 29 million people lived in government-controlled areas at the start of 2024 - which is down from 45 million before the 2014 Russian invasion and Crimea’s annexation.

The war has accelerated the exodus of younger Ukrainians, particularly women and children, leaving behind an aging population. Adding to this, hundreds of thousands of veterans will return home, many of whom will require physical and psychological support. Managing this social, economic, and political burden without security guarantees would be a monumental task for any state forced to have high military spending, let alone Ukraine, with GDP per capita almost 5 times less than Greece. Additionally, without firm security guarantees and a concrete long-term plan, the likelihood of people returning from abroad remains slim.

Lack of guarantees will multiply the factor of instability, with fears of another Russian invasion driving more citizens to flee once borders fully reopen. The resulting uncertainty would deter post-war investments, as high-security risks and social instability would create an unattractive environment for any serious economic engagement.

Politically, Ukraine will also enter a period of uncertainty and risks. While Zelensky remains a unifying figure in wartime, internal tensions, which are often invisible to the Western audience are mounting, creating an increasingly toxic political atmosphere. A stalled war, millions displaced, lost territories, and a crippled economy hardly set the stage for calm and easy elections. As Ukraine enters a period of intense political competition, accusations of military failures are likely to dominate the discourse. It will be a test of Ukraine’s ability to preserve national unity across political lines.

Some argue that immigration could help address the problem, but what exactly would draw immigrants to Ukraine, where the average monthly salary is between $500 and $700, in a country ravaged by post-war problems and facing the constant threat of another Russian invasion? Especially when far more attractive opportunities are available within the EU.

Many Western partners assure Ukraine that aid will ensure that it won't happen, but how reliable are these statements, given the history of similar statements akin to "Will support Ukraine as long as it takes" in today’s realities? Democracies operate on election cycles, and promises of long-term support can quickly become an object of shifting political winds....

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‌Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

RT @John_A_Ridge: With the remaining $5.9B in Presidential Drawdown Authority from the Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act of 2024, the U.S. can provide Ukraine with just under $500M per month in drawdown through FY25.

If PDA recovered (or recoverable) from revaluation is included, this rises to almost $1B per month.

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

🇺🇸🇱🇹 Northrop Grumman and the Government of Lithuania have signed a MoU on the establishment of medium calibre ammunition production in the country.

Lithuania uses NG's 30mm Mk44S Bushmaster chain gun on their Boxer IFVs. The Giraitė Armaments Plant, which currently produces small arms ammo, will work with NG to be able to produce 30mm ammunition for the IFVs.

Link in alt text.

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

@colone1flanders: I'm speaking about what Ukraine needs from the US alone.

Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (Twitter)

HIMARS strike on the Russian BUK-M3 air defence system in Kursk region. Video by the 413rd Battalion of Unmanned Systems of Ukraine.
t.me/raid_413/63

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

ATACMS. What is it? Why does it matter so much? How many are there? How many will Ukraine get? Every question you could possibly have, answered. It's the thread you've all been waiting for... 🧵 (1/72)

Ukraine Battle Map (Twitter)

@MaksiAdd @yoptivotzheon @TheFl0orIsLaVa: A couple new apartments buildings Russia built in Mariupol purely for propaganda purposes to cover up for the hundreds of thousands of people they killed and +95% of the city they completely destroyed.

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

❗️🇨🇳🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russian forces are using Chinese made ZFB-05 armored vehicles in Ukraine. Increased procurement of military equipment from China is Russia's next logical escalation, given their cooperation with North Korea & Iran has gone unpunished.

Will we do anything to stop this?