Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
Considering Ukraine's pre-war air defense force & the number of new systems needed to replace them, this inadequacy is very apparent. 30 batteries of 9K35 Strela-10, 30 batteries of 9K33 Osa & 9K330 Tor, 30 batteries of 9K37 Buk & 30 batteries of S-300P/V need replacement.
6/21
Considering Ukraine's pre-war air defense force & the number of new systems needed to replace them, this inadequacy is very apparent. 30 batteries of 9K35 Strela-10, 30 batteries of 9K33 Osa & 9K330 Tor, 30 batteries of 9K37 Buk & 30 batteries of S-300P/V need replacement.
6/21
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
Setting aside the short & medium range needs, if we just consider the long range & high altitude (the most critical component to defend against missiles), Ukraine will be lucky to operate a combined 10 PATRIOT & SAMP/T FUs/batteries by year end; out of a required 30.
7/21
Setting aside the short & medium range needs, if we just consider the long range & high altitude (the most critical component to defend against missiles), Ukraine will be lucky to operate a combined 10 PATRIOT & SAMP/T FUs/batteries by year end; out of a required 30.
7/21
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
Ukraine is contending with the classic missile defense dilemma: interceptors are often more expensive, and certainly more scarce, than the targets they seek to destroy.
The solution?
Ukraine must be empowered by President Biden to shoot the archer, not just the arrow.
1/21
Ukraine is contending with the classic missile defense dilemma: interceptors are often more expensive, and certainly more scarce, than the targets they seek to destroy.
The solution?
Ukraine must be empowered by President Biden to shoot the archer, not just the arrow.
1/21
👍5❤1
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
I don't know who coined this idiom, but the oldest instance I found of it in the context of missile defense is from a 1988 @SteveEngelberg article in NYT. An officer in the US Navy used it to illustrate their air and missile defense doctrine to Engelberg.
2/21
I don't know who coined this idiom, but the oldest instance I found of it in the context of missile defense is from a 1988 @SteveEngelberg article in NYT. An officer in the US Navy used it to illustrate their air and missile defense doctrine to Engelberg.
2/21
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
Engelberg explained: "Because missiles can be fired well before the plane carrying them is in view, American military doctrine calls for the captain to defend his ship by knocking down hostile aircraft as soon as he believes he is under attack."
3/21
Engelberg explained: "Because missiles can be fired well before the plane carrying them is in view, American military doctrine calls for the captain to defend his ship by knocking down hostile aircraft as soon as he believes he is under attack."
3/21
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
This of course applies to ground based air defenses as well. It's preferable to shoot down enemy aircraft before they have an opportunity to fire their missiles. Better yet, destroy them on the ground before they even begin their sorties.
4/21
This of course applies to ground based air defenses as well. It's preferable to shoot down enemy aircraft before they have an opportunity to fire their missiles. Better yet, destroy them on the ground before they even begin their sorties.
4/21
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
Though Ukraine has received a wide variety of air defense systems from western donors (some of the key ones are listed below), they still fall far short of what Ukraine's requirements are to fully build out an adequate integrated air & missile defense network.
5/21
Though Ukraine has received a wide variety of air defense systems from western donors (some of the key ones are listed below), they still fall far short of what Ukraine's requirements are to fully build out an adequate integrated air & missile defense network.
5/21
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
For comparison, the US Army has 15 or 16 operational PATRIOT Battalions in service right now, each with an avg of 4-5 batteries. President Zelensky went so far as to say that Ukraine really needed 25 PATRIOT battalions, each with 6-8 batteries!
8/21
For comparison, the US Army has 15 or 16 operational PATRIOT Battalions in service right now, each with an avg of 4-5 batteries. President Zelensky went so far as to say that Ukraine really needed 25 PATRIOT battalions, each with 6-8 batteries!
8/21
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
150-200 PATRIOT batteries far exceed the number that are collectively in service among all operators globally. Given the scale of Ukrainian needs, supplying them solely from existing stocks has never been an option, but PATRIOT is not being procured for Ukraine either.
9/21
150-200 PATRIOT batteries far exceed the number that are collectively in service among all operators globally. Given the scale of Ukrainian needs, supplying them solely from existing stocks has never been an option, but PATRIOT is not being procured for Ukraine either.
9/21
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
Despite constant pleas from the Ukrainian government, the Biden Admin has refused to place any orders for newly produced PATRIOT Fire Units on Ukraine’s behalf. There has been both time & money to do this, but 29 months into the war, Raytheon has received no contracts.
10/21
Despite constant pleas from the Ukrainian government, the Biden Admin has refused to place any orders for newly produced PATRIOT Fire Units on Ukraine’s behalf. There has been both time & money to do this, but 29 months into the war, Raytheon has received no contracts.
10/21
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Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
In April, Assistant Secretary of Defense Wallander suggested in a Congressional hearing that if Congress appropriated additional funds, which they since have, they could consider putting new PATRIOTs on contract. There has been no follow-up on this though.
11/21
In April, Assistant Secretary of Defense Wallander suggested in a Congressional hearing that if Congress appropriated additional funds, which they since have, they could consider putting new PATRIOTs on contract. There has been no follow-up on this though.
11/21
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
It was revealed the day before the hearing that Raytheon has sufficient facilitization to produce up to 12 Fire Units per year. Achieving that rate though, would require significant investments, lead time, and massive contracts to justify those efforts.
12/21
It was revealed the day before the hearing that Raytheon has sufficient facilitization to produce up to 12 Fire Units per year. Achieving that rate though, would require significant investments, lead time, and massive contracts to justify those efforts.
12/21
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
Any PATRIOT orders placed now would be at the back of a growing queue of customers, who might not be amenable to requests to give up their spot in line. Even in a best-case scenario, it would probably still be at least a year before Ukraine could receive a new Fire Unit.
13/21
Any PATRIOT orders placed now would be at the back of a growing queue of customers, who might not be amenable to requests to give up their spot in line. Even in a best-case scenario, it would probably still be at least a year before Ukraine could receive a new Fire Unit.
13/21
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
We can't count on the arrival of F-16s to solve Ukraine's air defense problems either. They will help at the margins, but they don’t fundamentally change the situation. No combination of systems can enable Ukraine to “play catch” with Russian missiles in perpetuity.
14/21
We can't count on the arrival of F-16s to solve Ukraine's air defense problems either. They will help at the margins, but they don’t fundamentally change the situation. No combination of systems can enable Ukraine to “play catch” with Russian missiles in perpetuity.
14/21
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
To win, Ukraine needs to be able to strike back at strategic targets within Russia. President Biden, fearful of escalation, has prohibited Ukraine from doing so — and not just with American weapons, but with all donated weapons.
15/21
To win, Ukraine needs to be able to strike back at strategic targets within Russia. President Biden, fearful of escalation, has prohibited Ukraine from doing so — and not just with American weapons, but with all donated weapons.
15/21
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
President Zelensky told The Guardian in May that, despite signals from the UK that Ukraine could defend its territory as the Ukrainians saw fit, they still could not use Storm Shadow cruise missiles to strike Russia without approval from DC.
16/21
President Zelensky told The Guardian in May that, despite signals from the UK that Ukraine could defend its territory as the Ukrainians saw fit, they still could not use Storm Shadow cruise missiles to strike Russia without approval from DC.
16/21
the Guardian
Volodymyr Zelenskiy: Russian troops are laughing at and ‘hunting’ Ukrainians
Exclusive interview: Ukrainian president says US delaying use of western weapons on targets inside Russia has cost lives
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
Zelensky stressed to Reuters that his country had abided by all the conditions placed on it by Western weapons donors, as failing to do so would “put the whole volume of weapons at risk.” Meaning they would be cut off, if they did not abide.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/western-aid-ukraine-too-slow-risks-us-election-limited-zelenskiy-2024-05-20/
17/21
Zelensky stressed to Reuters that his country had abided by all the conditions placed on it by Western weapons donors, as failing to do so would “put the whole volume of weapons at risk.” Meaning they would be cut off, if they did not abide.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/western-aid-ukraine-too-slow-risks-us-election-limited-zelenskiy-2024-05-20/
17/21
Reuters
Exclusive: Ukraine's Zelenskiy pushes allies to step up aid and involvement in war
Western allies are taking too long to make key decisions on military support for Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Reuters in an exclusive interview in Kyiv on Monday.
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
Removing all the restrictions would imperil every airbase, every logistics hub and any other strategic target within several hundred km of the border. Russian fighter jets, which the Biden Admin dubiously claimed were never off limits to begin with, would be at risk too.
18/21
Removing all the restrictions would imperil every airbase, every logistics hub and any other strategic target within several hundred km of the border. Russian fighter jets, which the Biden Admin dubiously claimed were never off limits to begin with, would be at risk too.
18/21
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
There are no silver bullets though. Opening Russian territory up to unrestricted strikes will be less impactful now than it would have been when they were not yet on a war footing. @Tatarigami_UA has found that they are already moving assets further away too.
19/21 https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1816561523210191258#m
There are no silver bullets though. Opening Russian territory up to unrestricted strikes will be less impactful now than it would have been when they were not yet on a war footing. @Tatarigami_UA has found that they are already moving assets further away too.
19/21 https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1816561523210191258#m
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
President Biden, now no longer running for re-election, needs to decide what his legacy will be. There’s still time left for him to change course and become a true champion for Ukrainian victory. It’s time for him to let Ukraine shoot the archer — not just the arrow.
20/21
President Biden, now no longer running for re-election, needs to decide what his legacy will be. There’s still time left for him to change course and become a true champion for Ukrainian victory. It’s time for him to let Ukraine shoot the archer — not just the arrow.
20/21
Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)
This thread is a truncated version of my latest column for @InsiderEng. If this topic is of interest to you, please do visit their website to read it in full.
21/21
https://theins.press/en/opinion/colby-badhwar/273387
This thread is a truncated version of my latest column for @InsiderEng. If this topic is of interest to you, please do visit their website to read it in full.
21/21
https://theins.press/en/opinion/colby-badhwar/273387
The Insider
Shoot the archer, not the arrow – Ukraine’s missile defense dilemma
Several days ago, Kyiv confirmed the arrival of an additional Patriot air defense system from Germany. These systems, provided by Kyiv's Western partners, form the backbone of Ukraine's long- and medium-range air defense network. Despite their extensive range…