Necro Mancer (Twitter)

Игра в убегалки
t.me/BULAVA72b/156 #RussianUkrainianWar

Belarusian Hajun project (Twitter)

As expected, the reason for the landing of the Embraer E195LR (EW-513PO) in Astrakhan was a technical malfunction, but the situation turned out to be quite serious.

According to “Aviaincident” Telegram channel, the Belavia plane (EW-513PO) landed at the Astrakhan airfield due to the failure of one of the engines. The message about it was received by e-mail at 01:47 Minsk time.

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

Considering Ukraine's pre-war air defense force & the number of new systems needed to replace them, this inadequacy is very apparent. 30 batteries of 9K35 Strela-10, 30 batteries of 9K33 Osa & 9K330 Tor, 30 batteries of 9K37 Buk & 30 batteries of S-300P/V need replacement.

6/21

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

Setting aside the short & medium range needs, if we just consider the long range & high altitude (the most critical component to defend against missiles), Ukraine will be lucky to operate a combined 10 PATRIOT & SAMP/T FUs/batteries by year end; out of a required 30.

7/21

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

Ukraine is contending with the classic missile defense dilemma: interceptors are often more expensive, and certainly more scarce, than the targets they seek to destroy.

The solution?

Ukraine must be empowered by President Biden to shoot the archer, not just the arrow.

1/21

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

I don't know who coined this idiom, but the oldest instance I found of it in the context of missile defense is from a 1988 @SteveEngelberg article in NYT. An officer in the US Navy used it to illustrate their air and missile defense doctrine to Engelberg.

2/21

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

Engelberg explained: "Because missiles can be fired well before the plane carrying them is in view, American military doctrine calls for the captain to defend his ship by knocking down hostile aircraft as soon as he believes he is under attack."

3/21

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

This of course applies to ground based air defenses as well. It's preferable to shoot down enemy aircraft before they have an opportunity to fire their missiles. Better yet, destroy them on the ground before they even begin their sorties.

4/21

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

Though Ukraine has received a wide variety of air defense systems from western donors (some of the key ones are listed below), they still fall far short of what Ukraine's requirements are to fully build out an adequate integrated air & missile defense network.

5/21

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

For comparison, the US Army has 15 or 16 operational PATRIOT Battalions in service right now, each with an avg of 4-5 batteries. President Zelensky went so far as to say that Ukraine really needed 25 PATRIOT battalions, each with 6-8 batteries!

8/21

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (Twitter)

150-200 PATRIOT batteries far exceed the number that are collectively in service among all operators globally. Given the scale of Ukrainian needs, supplying them solely from existing stocks has never been an option, but PATRIOT is not being procured for Ukraine either.

9/21