4emberlen (Twitter)

RT @Tatarigami_UA: An important aspect of being a decent analyst is the periodic review of one's prior work, retrospectively evaluating its accuracy, pinpointing mistakes, and gaining insight into the reasons behind incorrect conclusions.

In line with this approach, I have revisited some of my earlier analyses and located inaccurate conclusions. Perhaps the most important error I made was downplaying the probability of a major offensive by the Russian forces by the end of this year.

In the earlier part of this year and during the early fall, I reached the conclusion that Russian forces were engaged in training exercises with reserves, refurbishing units, and replenishing vehicle losses. My assessment at the time was that Russia would preserve an adequate defensive capability, but I failed to foresee their ability to launch an army-level operation by year-end.

While I observed substantial brigade and corps-sized for...

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Necro Mancer (Twitter)

Выпускник РВВДКУ сотрудник Управления «А» ЦСН ФСБ майор Гребенкин Евгений Владимирович 1991 г.р. из воронежского поселка Перво-Эртиль 06/07/23 при служебном исполнении в ходе СВОВУ внезапно скончался vk.com/wall-106160452_536151 vk.com/wall-185649093_165 #потерьнет #груз200

Necro Mancer (Twitter)

#Белореченский (в/о), Лутугинский р-н, Луганская обл., загадочная хрень t.me/journalist_lnr/4714