Rob Lee (Twitter)
Obviously, we'll see if this intelligence was accurate. But it is a notable factor in how the US has acted during this buildup compared to other countries, most of whom seemed to be more skeptical of a Russian escalation.
Obviously, we'll see if this intelligence was accurate. But it is a notable factor in how the US has acted during this buildup compared to other countries, most of whom seemed to be more skeptical of a Russian escalation.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
So Russia has just under four squadrons of Su-25SM attack aircraft on Ukraine's border in Luninets and Millervo. In the spring, Russia redeployed multiple Su-25SM3 squadrons to Crimea, which I would expect will also happen.
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@CSBiggers:
Planet imagery acquired on 11FEB2021 showed that 11 x Su-25SM had relocated to Millervo east of Luhansk. The airbase hosts the 31 IAP which has been converting to the Su-30SM from the MIG-29 since 2015. #geoint https://t.co/lHIUKI764m
So Russia has just under four squadrons of Su-25SM attack aircraft on Ukraine's border in Luninets and Millervo. In the spring, Russia redeployed multiple Su-25SM3 squadrons to Crimea, which I would expect will also happen.
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@CSBiggers:
Planet imagery acquired on 11FEB2021 showed that 11 x Su-25SM had relocated to Millervo east of Luhansk. The airbase hosts the 31 IAP which has been converting to the Su-30SM from the MIG-29 since 2015. #geoint https://t.co/lHIUKI764m
Rob Lee (Twitter)
1302/
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@RALee85:
So Russia has just under four squadrons of Su-25SM attack aircraft on Ukraine's border in Luninets and Millervo. In the spring, Russia redeployed multiple Su-25SM3 squadrons to Crimea, which I would expect will also happen. https://t.co/Oy21hAKxLO
1302/
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@RALee85:
So Russia has just under four squadrons of Su-25SM attack aircraft on Ukraine's border in Luninets and Millervo. In the spring, Russia redeployed multiple Su-25SM3 squadrons to Crimea, which I would expect will also happen. https://t.co/Oy21hAKxLO
Twitter
Rob Lee
So Russia has just under four squadrons of Su-25SM attack aircraft on Ukraine's border in Luninets and Millervo. In the spring, Russia redeployed multiple Su-25SM3 squadrons to Crimea, which I would expect will also happen. twitter.com/CSBiggers/stat…
Rob Lee (Twitter)
@klinovp Well that is what I'm saying in the second tweet. The US is sharing intel with other countries that these allies clearly believe is credible. Maybe it will turn out to be wrong, but it seems the US' allies have been convinced.
@klinovp Well that is what I'm saying in the second tweet. The US is sharing intel with other countries that these allies clearly believe is credible. Maybe it will turn out to be wrong, but it seems the US' allies have been convinced.
4emberlen (Twitter)
RT @EndGameWW3: Update: Russian long-range artillery, rocket launchers moved into firing positions -CBS
RT @EndGameWW3: Update: Russian long-range artillery, rocket launchers moved into firing positions -CBS
4emberlen (Twitter)
RT @The_Lookout_N: 1/2
Fresh Sentinel-1 SAR-imagery of Sevastopol, at 1536z today, shows that a number of BLKFLT ships have gone to sea since yesterday.
At least 4 x warships, 3-4 LSTs and prob 4 Tarantuls have left their moorings. Also several auxiliaries missing and Coast Guard pier is empty. https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1493285386289881091/photo/1
RT @The_Lookout_N: 1/2
Fresh Sentinel-1 SAR-imagery of Sevastopol, at 1536z today, shows that a number of BLKFLT ships have gone to sea since yesterday.
At least 4 x warships, 3-4 LSTs and prob 4 Tarantuls have left their moorings. Also several auxiliaries missing and Coast Guard pier is empty. https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1493285386289881091/photo/1
4emberlen (Twitter)
RT @The_Lookout_N: 2/2
1 x prob LST loading/unloading at the usual spot in Kozacha Bay.
I'm not sure where all NORFLT and BALFLT LSTs were moored, so it possible more LSTs than noted above also has departed. https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1493285396012220424/photo/1
RT @The_Lookout_N: 2/2
1 x prob LST loading/unloading at the usual spot in Kozacha Bay.
I'm not sure where all NORFLT and BALFLT LSTs were moored, so it possible more LSTs than noted above also has departed. https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1493285396012220424/photo/1
4emberlen (Twitter)
RT @AUT_INT: Interesting activity at Saki Naval Air Station/Novofedorivka Air Base in Crimea. Between February 10 and February 13 multiple new aircrafts have joined the flightline/base.
#OSINT #GEOINT #UkraineInvasion #Ukraine https://twitter.com/AUT_INT/status/1493289339530457093/photo/1
RT @AUT_INT: Interesting activity at Saki Naval Air Station/Novofedorivka Air Base in Crimea. Between February 10 and February 13 multiple new aircrafts have joined the flightline/base.
#OSINT #GEOINT #UkraineInvasion #Ukraine https://twitter.com/AUT_INT/status/1493289339530457093/photo/1
Rob Lee (Twitter)
6 BM-27 Uragan MLRS 9P140 launchers as well as 9T542 transporter-loading vehicles, BMP-2, MT-LB, 2S1 Gvozdika howitzers, and other equipment apparently arriving in Kursk today.
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@GirkinGirkin:
Курск https://t.co/eKCWkX2V1C
6 BM-27 Uragan MLRS 9P140 launchers as well as 9T542 transporter-loading vehicles, BMP-2, MT-LB, 2S1 Gvozdika howitzers, and other equipment apparently arriving in Kursk today.
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@GirkinGirkin:
Курск https://t.co/eKCWkX2V1C
The Lookout (Twitter)
RT @konrad_muzyka: This video confirms the deployment of elements belonging to the 2nd Combined Arms Army (CAAs) near Ukraine. The last CAA to arrive. Therefore, at the moment, elements of all ground forces CAAs (11/11) are "working towards Ukraine".
RT @konrad_muzyka: This video confirms the deployment of elements belonging to the 2nd Combined Arms Army (CAAs) near Ukraine. The last CAA to arrive. Therefore, at the moment, elements of all ground forces CAAs (11/11) are "working towards Ukraine".
4emberlen (Twitter)
RT @ELINTNews: #BREAKING: Russian units have left their assembly areas and begun to move into attack positions. Some long-range artillery and rocket launchers have also been moved into firing positions- US official to @CBSNews reports
RT @ELINTNews: #BREAKING: Russian units have left their assembly areas and begun to move into attack positions. Some long-range artillery and rocket launchers have also been moved into firing positions- US official to @CBSNews reports
Rob Lee (Twitter)
1303/
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@polinaivanovva:
For me, it's this one line that seems crucial, where Lavrov says that Russia has succeeded in getting results
He says: the demands we made in December, they 'shook up' the west, they made western governments go back to the table on other issues
https://t.co/JuzWUI5tv2
1303/
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@polinaivanovva:
For me, it's this one line that seems crucial, where Lavrov says that Russia has succeeded in getting results
He says: the demands we made in December, they 'shook up' the west, they made western governments go back to the table on other issues
https://t.co/JuzWUI5tv2
Twitter
Polina Ivanova
For me, it's this one line that seems crucial, where Lavrov says that Russia has succeeded in getting results He says: the demands we made in December, they 'shook up' the west, they made western governments go back to the table on other issues ft.com/content/b3e97d…
Rob Lee (Twitter)
1304/
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@RALee85:
6 BM-27 Uragan MLRS 9P140 launchers as well as 9T542 transporter-loading vehicles, BMP-2, MT-LB, 2S1 Gvozdika howitzers, and other equipment apparently arriving in Kursk today. https://t.co/X6Q01YnjSV https://t.co/03mBI6hWZ4
1304/
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@RALee85:
6 BM-27 Uragan MLRS 9P140 launchers as well as 9T542 transporter-loading vehicles, BMP-2, MT-LB, 2S1 Gvozdika howitzers, and other equipment apparently arriving in Kursk today. https://t.co/X6Q01YnjSV https://t.co/03mBI6hWZ4
Rob Lee (Twitter)
They're assuming a posture right now that you would not maintain for months. Russia can sustain an enhanced military presence near Ukraine for a long time, but they will either act in the coming weeks or move many of these tanks, howitzers, etc. to a more administrative posture.
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@War_Takes:
I guess an important caveat with Ukraine is, even if the Russians are moving to positions from which they could launch an attack with little to no warning, it doesn't mean they are actually going to go in the next few hours or days. They could sit on it for longer and THEN go.
They're assuming a posture right now that you would not maintain for months. Russia can sustain an enhanced military presence near Ukraine for a long time, but they will either act in the coming weeks or move many of these tanks, howitzers, etc. to a more administrative posture.
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@War_Takes:
I guess an important caveat with Ukraine is, even if the Russians are moving to positions from which they could launch an attack with little to no warning, it doesn't mean they are actually going to go in the next few hours or days. They could sit on it for longer and THEN go.
Twitter
War Takes
I guess an important caveat with Ukraine is, even if the Russians are moving to positions from which they could launch an attack with little to no warning, it doesn't mean they are actually going to go in the next few hours or days. They could sit on it for…
Rob Lee (Twitter)
1305/
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@shanvav:
Breaking: The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv is temporarily relocating operations from Kyiv to Lviv "due to the dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces," Secretary of State Tony Blinken says in statement just now.
1305/
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@shanvav:
Breaking: The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv is temporarily relocating operations from Kyiv to Lviv "due to the dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces," Secretary of State Tony Blinken says in statement just now.
Twitter
Shannon Vavra
Breaking: The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv is temporarily relocating operations from Kyiv to Lviv "due to the dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces," Secretary of State Tony Blinken says in statement just now.
Rob Lee (Twitter)
Basically we're talking about a military posture that means Russia could escalate within hours (i.e. units 10 miles from the border) or days (units 100 miles from the border) once the decision has been made. We're already in the window where Russia doesn't need weeks.
Basically we're talking about a military posture that means Russia could escalate within hours (i.e. units 10 miles from the border) or days (units 100 miles from the border) once the decision has been made. We're already in the window where Russia doesn't need weeks.