So far S&P500 holds above developing quarter VWAP VAL. Volume on the dips gives me a hope for temporary bounce regardless of FOMC. Probably will happen before the meeting. But same as with BTC this price action favors only shorts.

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S&P500 bounced just a little above 2021 low at 3663 which caused crypto to pump. Its far from being bullish and no confirmation for the end of retracement. But at least there is a chance for dead cat bounce (if you look from week timeframe point of view).

Today is Powell's speech again. Considering market pumped before it and shitcoins are pumping as well now, I think everything can go down soon. Powell's speeches rarely bring bullish news while Feds main goal remains to fight the inflation.

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Since I keep referring to S&P500 here are 4H and month charts. 2021 VWAP VAH is the support that holds the price from dumping so far. Lower tf chart show potential for the bounce. Month chart shows that chances for drop to pre-covid level is something we can't reject or ignore.

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Yesterday started with a glimpse of hope but ended with drop below June low. So now its only a matter of time when stocks dump to pre-covid level at 3200-3350.

Why am I starting day with S&P500 review? Because crypto doesn't matter. If stocks will dump Bitcoin has nothing to do but follow the market.

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S&P500 started Monday with bounce. Now at one of minor SR levels on my chart at 3663. But if that's a start for a new swing potentially may reach 2020 close before going down for new lows. That will be a perfect bearish engulfing on Year chart to start full scale correction of stocks.

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As I expected S&P500 is moving towards 2020 close. Pretty fast progress, too fast to continue for too long. Eight 4H candles in a row is a strong warning not to enter longs at this stage.

Condition for bullish continuation - next swing down bounce above 3636.

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Stocks managed to grow above 2020 close for a while, and dumped back to 2021 VAH. For the next week main date is October 12th with another FOMC minutes.

Short term I expect a bounce. Maybe SPX will dip lower to September close, maybe stay above 2021 VAH. That is moderate bullish scenario. The rest depends on price reaction to September VAL around 3690.

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S&P500 started week with continuation move down. That is what we may expect. Not necessary the same way and certainly not as smooth as this arrow shows, but main idea is that SPX might re-test September close and bullish OB zone below it. The main factor for future will be if SPX bounce from there or not. If bounce we will surely see re-test of September VAL around 3690. If no bounce - total global recession.

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Finally a look at S&P500. So far follows the forecasted pattern. Haven't yet closed below the middle of 4H OB which leaves glimmer of hope for reversal. The rest is theory and speculation. We will see everything very soon, so no sense in guessing. Everything was written before.

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S&P500 getting ready for FOMC today. Probably will do another dip before it. Tomorrow CPI so... that dip may last till that moment as well.

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CPI in 2.5 hours. Situation is the same, as described yesterday. Index still holds above middle line of OB, so theoretically we still can see it pump back to given values. Crypto will follow S&P500 in any case, whether its up or down

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Stocks dump

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So far S&P500 is having a bounce. Not very promising start for Monday. Nearest resistance at 3653, lets see how price will react to that level.

Major level to hold the bullish reversal is 3600.

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Well, as I wrote in Ethereum review, S&P500 was at 2020 close price which acts as strong SR zone. In the end it got rejected. So now back to September VAL at ~3690. I think we will see it drop to 3663 at least. And that will be a very bullish bounce zone. So while SPX ain't yet there, ETH/BTC ain't yet finished as well.

P.S. If I'm wrong and SPX bounce from September VAL.... well... it won't change the idea unless it close day near same 2020 level at 3760. Only in this case we may expect tomorrow everything to pump even higher. Until then scenario is short term correction.

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Not very promising price action in S&P500, but expected. Lets see if it will bounce from 3663. Next zone will be Year 2020 VAH around 3628.

Crypto dependent on stocks performance, so when SPX bounce, crypto will do as well.

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As I wrote in Twitter yesterday and here on October 19th S&P500 is heading towards Year 2020 VAH around 3628. This is a potential bounce zone that can support bullish reversal.

But since it doesn't look very bullish yet, I think we might see it dump to September close (~3592) as well, which will be the bottom of consolidation range.

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Won't try to guess what will happen with S&P500 now. But scenarios are simple. Bounce from 2020 close - bullish. Drop lower to September VAL - ok. Dump to September close - bearish.

Crypto will follow.

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S&P500 pumped like a shitcoin from bullish bounce zone. Frankly I didn't expect it to move that high in one day and it feels like it takes bullishness in credit to give it back next week.

Nearest resistance at ~3918 and ~3955. These are the levels its targeting on that impulse. At some point we should see it come back to September VWAP at ~3830 - fair value gap formed there.

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S&P500 making another swing targeting breakout attempt of 3918.5 high left from September 20th. Considering FOMC tomorrow and CPI on November 10th I advise to be very cautious with longs at this level. Better consider shorts on the pump if it happen.

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Stocks bounce from September VWAP - now making breakout attempt of October close at 3875 resistance. Lets see how it plays out after the Powell's speech.

Watch it live here on YouTube

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