Longs working well so far. It feels like we just switched polarity as soon as 2026 started

I think we keep pushing higher from here, but taking (some) profit makes sense if you're conservative.

Remain nimble 👆

Reminder that people don't know shit on a $200k volume Polymarket contract

$SOL squeezing marked the altcoin local top to the tick

Strategy's USD Reserve is now large enough to cover more than 2 years of pref dividends without touching their $60bn $BTC stack

I believe that the yield offered by their preferred shares is way superior risk-adjusted than most stablecoin yields you will be able to find in crypto

There's a lot of alpha in just tracking and frontrunning HyperLiquid whales

Most of the visible moves on the $HYPE chart for example are just whales PvPing each other

Stop losses are often considered as sub-optimal tools that negatively affects the EV of your trades but I don't agree.
I'm of the opinion that they are actually among the most important tools to make you profitable in crypto

The risk with SLs is "death by a thousand cuts" (ie repeatedly taking trades that get stopped out and accumulating too many losing trades in a row), but people in crypto don't really die by thousand cuts

They die because they oversize, and once their trades become losers, they are unable to close because of the usual loss aversion bias. Then they are either in a position where they take a massive drawdown that they will take a long time to offset, or in the worst case scenario they start martingaling and tilting, and their drawdown gets even more amplified. That's death in crypto, probably 95% of the time.

In crypto there are so many opportunities for meaningful upside that the most important thing by far is managing your downside. Using stop losses enables you to precisely know what your downside is, and to make sure that you respect your plan of cutting once the stop gets hit.

When you enter a trade, you shouldn't just "hope" it goes the right way without being crystal clear about what you'll do if it goes wrong. That's why setting a stop right at the beginning is so crucial. At the very least you should have a mental SL, but that's riskier because you'll find reasons not to respect it once you should.

I consider this one of the most crucial risk management rules in crypto trading.

It first got rejected at $500 but here we are now

I'd expect to see at least $700 but let's see, it's already totally vertical now

$XMR

Price down but 1/3rd of the long $PIPPIN position has now been derisked just through funding payments

(I opened on 12/24 and added on dumps)

$POL looks cooked now

Low risk swing short basket (hedge leg)

$ONDO
$ASTER
$UNI
$ENA
$WLFI
$HYPE
$XLM
$HBAR

It remained strong for 2 days but it’s too hard to withstand these sell flows for $HYPE

Huge volume on $STRC today, and it's trading at par so Saylor probably raised $70M+ just today with it

People are buying STRC today to get included for the next monthly dividend payment

Then after the 15th we'll probably see a dip again that you can buy for the re-peg

Saylor is currently selling $MSTR close to 1x mNAV which is barely accretive in terms of BTC yield, but is useful in terms of increasing collateral for the credit worthiness of the prefs + adding room for more pref issuance

(It's also "useful" for BTC to have buy pressure ofc)

Recap of the ‘’week’’:

https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-january-13