🚀 Top Trader Discusses Strategies for Profit Retention in Crypto Markets
#Crypto #Trading #ProfitRetention #InvestmentStrategies #MarketCycles #Drawdown #ExitStrategy #FinancialPlanning #EugeneNg #RiskManagement
According to BlockBeats, on December 18, top trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio shared insights on the challenges of retaining profits in the cryptocurrency market. He emphasized that while making money in the crypto market is one aspect, preserving those profits is another. Ng highlighted the importance of having a well-planned exit strategy to minimize losses when market cycles shift. He noted that those who claim to consistently profit in both bull and bear markets are exceptionally rare, suggesting that such traders belong to the top 0.01% globally.
Ng provided a framework for evaluating investment performance based on the percentage of drawdown from the net asset value's peak. A drawdown of 0-20% indicates excellent defensive performance, though it might come at the cost of potential gains. A 20-30% drawdown suggests good management, with timely exits upon recognizing market shifts, resulting in minimal losses. A 30-50% drawdown is considered acceptable, implying that while not optimal, the investor likely secured reasonable profits. A 50-75% drawdown indicates holding positions for too long and failing to identify critical turning points at the end of a cycle. Finally, a drawdown exceeding 75% signals a significant error, necessitating a comprehensive evaluation of one's trading approach.
Ng concluded by noting the inherent uncertainty in predicting the true extent of drawdowns before the start of the next cycle. Despite this uncertainty, he stressed the importance of having a plan in place to navigate market transitions effectively.#Crypto #Trading #ProfitRetention #InvestmentStrategies #MarketCycles #Drawdown #ExitStrategy #FinancialPlanning #EugeneNg #RiskManagement
🚀 Bitcoin News: Saifedean Ammous Warns Bitcoin Price Nearing Cycle Peak, Suggests Corporate Buyers Prepare for Potential 80% Drawdown
#Bitcoin #SaifedeanAmmous #Crypto #BTC #BullCycle #Drawdown #CorporateBuyers #InstitutionalAdoption #Blockchain #BitcoinForecast #Halving #MarketCycle #BitcoinTreasury #MaxKeiser #BearMarket
As Bitcoin trades around $105,857, economist and “The Bitcoin Standard” author Saifedean Ammous has issued a cautionary statement on the Coin Stories podcast, warning that the leading cryptocurrency may be nearing the top of its current bull cycle.Ammous stated that despite institutional adoption and corporate treasury allocations, Bitcoin (BTC) remains historically prone to severe drawdowns, suggesting that a decline of up to 80% remains possible. “Bitcoin has done -70% and -80% before, and it can do it again,” Ammous said, urging businesses to reevaluate their exposure if they cannot endure such a downturn.He added that Bitcoin’s market cycle peaks historically occur within 12 to 18 months following a halving event. From its bottom at $15,000, BTC has already rallied over 600%, reaching a recent high near $109,000.The warning comes as corporate Bitcoin adoption accelerates, with Paris-based Blockchain Group acquiring $68 million worth of BTC this week, bringing its total holdings to nearly 1,500 BTC. Meanwhile, Metaplanet recently surpassed 8,888 BTC after purchasing 1,088 BTC at an average price of $108,400, positioning itself as the eighth-largest corporate BTC holder.Echoing Ammous’ concerns, Bitcoin advocate Max Keiser questioned whether new entrants adopting a "Bitcoin treasury strategy" will maintain their holdings during extended bear markets. He contrasted them with Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which has consistently held BTC through downturns without selling.Despite cautionary outlooks, bullish BTC forecasts persist, with $200,000 remaining a widely cited price target for 2025 among analysts.#Bitcoin #SaifedeanAmmous #Crypto #BTC #BullCycle #Drawdown #CorporateBuyers #InstitutionalAdoption #Blockchain #BitcoinForecast #Halving #MarketCycle #BitcoinTreasury #MaxKeiser #BearMarket
🚀 Bitcoin's Path to New Highs Dependent on ETF Inflows Amid Recent Outflows
#Bitcoin #ETF #Inflows #Outflows #NS3AI #Macroeconomics #FederalReserve #Rally #HalvingCycles #Drawdown #Crypto #BTC
Bitcoin's potential to reach a new all-time high is contingent upon the continuation of spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, following significant outflows amounting to $1.3 billion between December 2025 and January 2026. According to NS3.AI, the market is currently experiencing tactical rebalancing, where bursts of inflows are countered by sharp outflows, largely influenced by macroeconomic factors such as Federal Reserve policies. Analysts have identified three potential timing scenarios for Bitcoin's next peak. These scenarios range from a renewed rally in 2026-2027 with sustained inflows to a delayed peak closer to 2028, influenced by traditional halving cycles or extended drawdown risks.#Bitcoin #ETF #Inflows #Outflows #NS3AI #Macroeconomics #FederalReserve #Rally #HalvingCycles #Drawdown #Crypto #BTC
🚀 U.S. Natural Gas Inventory Declines More Than Expected
#US #NaturalGas #Inventory #Decline #EnergyInformationAdministration #EIA #NaturalGasSupplies #Drawdown
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a significant decrease in natural gas inventories for the week ending January 23. According to Jin10, the inventory fell by 242 billion cubic feet, surpassing the anticipated decline of 232 billion cubic feet. The previous week's reduction was recorded at 120 billion cubic feet. This data indicates a larger-than-expected drawdown in natural gas supplies.#US #NaturalGas #Inventory #Decline #EnergyInformationAdministration #EIA #NaturalGasSupplies #Drawdown
🚀 Bitcoin Experiences Rare Extreme Downturn
#Bitcoin #Cryptocurrency #Volatility #MarketDownturn #SixSigma #StandardDeviation #QuantitativeModels #RiskManagement #FlashCrash #BearMarket #CoinKarma #OnChainData #Leverage #Drawdown #FatTailEffects #FinancialMarkets #BTC
Bitcoin experienced a significant downturn this morning, according to ChainCatcher. The cryptocurrency's decline reached -5.65 standard deviations over a 200-day look-back period. In manufacturing, the Six Sigma standard allows for only 3.4 defects per million, defining such an event as nearly impossible. Yesterday's Bitcoin volatility was just 0.35 standard deviations away from this industrial-level improbability.
The theoretical probability of a -5.65σ event in a normal distribution is about one in a billion. Despite the presence of fat-tail effects in financial markets, such volatility has only occurred four times since Bitcoin trading records began in July 2010, representing approximately 0.07% of all trading days. Even during the deep bear markets of 2018 and 2022, such rapid declines within a 200-day rolling period were not observed, posing a significant challenge to quantitative strategies.
Most current quantitative models are based on data from 2015 onwards. Historical samples exceeding 5.65σ, aside from the 2020 '312' flash crash anomaly, occurred before 2015, leaving little precedent for reference.
CoinKarma's quantitative strategy faced a paper loss during this market event. However, due to maintaining low leverage (around 1.4 times), the overall impact remains manageable, with a maximum drawdown of about 30%. While extreme market conditions are costly learning experiences, contract and on-chain data will be crucial for future risk control models.#Bitcoin #Cryptocurrency #Volatility #MarketDownturn #SixSigma #StandardDeviation #QuantitativeModels #RiskManagement #FlashCrash #BearMarket #CoinKarma #OnChainData #Leverage #Drawdown #FatTailEffects #FinancialMarkets #BTC
🚀 Hedge Funds Face Significant Drawdown Amid Trade Unwinds
#HedgeFunds #Drawdown #TradeUnwinds #JPMorgan #TariffTurmoil #Bloomberg #MarketVolatility #FinancialMarkets #Investors #EconomicDynamics
Hedge funds are currently experiencing their largest drawdown since the tariff turmoil on Liberation Day, according to JPMorgan strategists. Bloomberg posted on X that the unwinding of crowded trades is impacting the fast-money cohort significantly. This development highlights the challenges faced by hedge funds in navigating volatile market conditions. The situation underscores the risks associated with concentrated positions in the financial markets, as investors reassess their strategies in response to changing economic dynamics.#HedgeFunds #Drawdown #TradeUnwinds #JPMorgan #TariffTurmoil #Bloomberg #MarketVolatility #FinancialMarkets #Investors #EconomicDynamics
🚀 Bitcoin Recovery Timeline Estimated at 300 Days After 45% Drawdown
#Bitcoin #RecoveryTimeline #NS3AI #Ecoinometrics #Cryptocurrency #BitcoinPrice #Drawdown #MarketRecovery #BTC
According to NS3.AI, Ecoinometrics has projected that Bitcoin may require approximately 300 days to regain its previous all-time high following a significant 45% decline. The platform emphasized that this estimate serves as a guideline for the recovery timeframe rather than a direct price prediction.#Bitcoin #RecoveryTimeline #NS3AI #Ecoinometrics #Cryptocurrency #BitcoinPrice #Drawdown #MarketRecovery #BTC